Trade Strategy 12.31.14

By way of recent review of previous DTS reports, we stated : “Friday’s High (2088.75) will be marker as “key” resistance until it is cleared and converted. IF successfully converted, THEN upside projects 2100 handle. Initial support is marked at 2076 handle…Should this level be violated and converted, then lower zones in play will be 2072 – 2068.”

The 2088 handle high has indeed held as firm resistance…Yesterday’s Cycle Day 1 (CD1) Low was 2073.00…So very near to our projected Low Zone Target Support. We will mark these two levels as “Key Support and Resistance” for the final trading session for 2014.

Trade bias continues to favor buying pullbacks to key Decision Points into the “final tick”…Just do not become complacent with your trading…Stay Focused, Calm, and Disciplined.

*****To reiterate, trade expectation is for “quiet firmness” with an upside bias during holiday season…It’s critically important to be strict and disciplined on trade selection…This is not the time to become a bold trader…Plenty of time for that in 2015…For now, be in the holiday spirit and enjoy.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Twelve
I am disciplined. I behave in a way to reach my goals. I do what I intend to do. I have the intent to win through right actions. I will be patient for patterns to emerge and mature. I am decisive. I decide easily and act promptly. I act in the right way and right on time. When there is nothing to be done, I will wait.

Trade Strategy 12.30.14

As we enter the final days of 2014, there may be some year end “gaming”, so we want to remain vigilant and stay disciplined to our methods. The last few trading days is not the time to play “catch-up” on any lost trading performance…There will be plenty of time to excel in the new year. It is a good time to review your individual performance, to identify where more emphasis is needed to improve results.

Friday’s High (2088.75) will be marker as “key” resistance until it is cleared and converted. IF successfully converted, THEN upside projects 2100 handle. Initial support is marked at 2076 handle…Should this level be violated and converted, then lower zones in play will be 2072 – 2068.

Trade bias continues to favor buying pullbacks to key Decision Points into the “final tick”…Just do not become complacent with your trading…Stay Focused, Calm, and Disciplined.

*****To reiterate, trade expectation is for “quiet firmness” with an upside bias during holiday season…It’s critically important to be strict and disciplined on trade selection…This is not the time to become a bold trader…Plenty of time for that in 2015…For now, be in the holiday spirit and enjoy.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Trade Strategy 12.29.14

During the Christmas Holiday Week, we had projected the high price target 2088.00…This level did get achieved…Trade Strategy 12.23.14. As we enter the final days of 2014, there may be some year end “gaming”, so we want to remain vigilant and stay disciplined to our methods. The last few trading days is not the time to play “catch-up” on any lost trading performance…There will be plenty of time to excel in the new year. It is a good time to review your individual performance, to identify where more emphasis is needed to improve results.

Friday’s High (2088.75) will be marker as “key” resistance until it is cleared and converted. IF successfully converted, THEN upside projects 2100 handle. Initial support is marked at 2076 handle…Should this level be violated and converted, then lower zones in play will be 2072 – 2068.

Trade bias continues to favor buying pullbacks to key Decision Points into the “final tick”…Just do not become complacent with your trading…Stay Focused, Calm, and Disciplined.

*****To reiterate, trade expectation is for “quiet firmness” with an upside bias during holiday season…It’s critically important to be strict and disciplined on trade selection…This is not the time to become a bold trader…Plenty of time for that in 2015…For now, be in the holiday spirit and enjoy.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Nine
I will identify my mistakes and learn from them. I am optimistic, realistic and honest. I will not make up stories about the good or bad things that occurred in the past or are happening now. I admit when something is not working. My optimism gives me faith and courage. I will not fall prey to blame and fear.

Trade Strategy 12.23.14

There is little to add to today’s DTS Report…Price held bid at or above the 2068 level support marker in prior day trade session. We will continue to view this level as “key support” to hold…Volumes were light as we expected…and will continue to be very light pre-holiday trade…Our posture is to remain buy-side biased throughout the holiday season.

Abbreviated Price levels to be mindful of for Tuesday and Wednesday:

Possible High: 2088…Possible Low: 2048…These projections are based upon penetration or violation of recent daily highs and lows.

*****To reiterate, trade expectation is for “quiet firmness” with an upside bias during holiday season…It’s critically important to be strict and disciplined on trade selection…This is not the time to become a bold trader…Plenty of time for that in 2015…For now, be in the holiday spirit and enjoy.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Eight
I can recover from any setback. I have an attitude of abundance. I affirm abundance in the universe. I know I cannot begin to count the stars. I realize the ocean doesn’t care whether I go to it with a bucket or a teaspoon. I know the market provides a river of opportunities. I invest in my capabilities. I will be happy with my results.

 

Trade Strategy 12.22.14

As Mrs Claus (Fed Chair Yellen) gave the Markets an early Christmas Present last week, prices continue to hold firm at all-time highs. Barring any external “event”, our expectation is for continued firmness throughout the holiday season capping the year off with the annual Santa Claus Rally between Christmas and New Years.

Trading volume will begin to become lighter each day, so bear that in mind when selecting trade opportunities…It might be better worth your time to enjoy holiday festivities.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Friday produced a shallow decline, which was expected, given the strength in recent upside move…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2087.50; Possible Low = 2036.75.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PDH (2076.25), THEN there is a 50% chance price extends to reach projected target 2087.50. Above this level projects 2097.50 – 2100.

Scenario 2: IF price violates PDL (2056.50), THEN odds favor a 45% chance of retracing to meet downside range objective 2036.75.

*****To reiterate, trade expectation is for “quiet firmness” with an upside bias during holiday season…It’s critically important to be strict and disciplined on trade selection…This is not the time to become a bold trader…Plenty of time for that in 2015…For now, be in the holiday spirit and enjoy.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Seven
I take the long term view. I am willing to lose in the short term. I understand that losses are a necessary cost of doing business, like inventory to a merchant. Drawdowns are viewed as temporary. I realize that my wins and winning periods are part of the broad process. Each trade is but one in a string of trades. What is happening now is one piece of a much larger puzzle. Because of this I do not get overly euphoric or despondent.

Trade Strategy 12.18.14

World shares are on the rise today following a vote of confidence from the Fed on Wednesday that the U.S. economy was on track. The Dow and S&P surged yesterday to their strongest percentage gains of the year on the news, following Janet Yellen’s comments that an interest rate increase was unlikely for at least the next two FOMC meetings. Whether hikes come sooner, faster, or on that date, said Yellen, depends on the incoming data.

Mrs Claus (Yellen) gave the Markets an early Xmas present…Overnight trade has S&P e-mini’s up 24 handles, exceeding most of today’s projected targets except for TargetMaster Range Breakout Level 2038.25.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Cycle Targets have been reached or exceeded…so today will have an abbreviated report…

Scenario 1: Upside momentum is currently intact, which could propel price to Breakout Target 2038.25…Should price clear and convert this level, further upside potential is to 2052.25.

Scenario 2: Pullback levels to be mindful of should price reverse from upper levels are 2018…2011 (PDH)..1998.00 – 1995 zone…1989.50 – 1987.50 3DCPZ. TargetMaster Breakdown Level 1977.75.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Six
I am at peace with uncertainty. I know there is no such thing as a sure thing. I have no particular need to be right. I understand that being perfect has no place in trading. I am flexible. I am willing to change my mind. I am alert to scenario changes. I accept the information that tells me I am on the right track or on the wrong track.

Trade Strategy 12.17.14

So goes Crude Oil…So goes S&P…That’s the current relationship…As CL rallied yesterday, ES followed close behind to reach our target zone near 2010 handle Trade Strategy 12.16.14. Later in the session CL retreated into a lower trade zone as ES sold off hard into settlement as there was a MOC Sell Imbalance. Already vulnerable, price settled near low of day. Whether or not this is final flush out is yet to be determined as price has not been able to stabilize within an acceptable zone where bulls and bears agree on price.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 44%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2022.25; Possible Low = 1938 based upon range parameters.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price will need to stabilize above Cycle Day 1 Low (1961.50)…Should buyers become aggressive and in sufficient quantity, then initial target is the CPZ (1979.75)…Clear and conversion of this level targets 1983 – 85 zone…Above this zone measures 3D CPZ 1990.75 then TargetMaster Breakout Level 1995.75.

Scenario 2: Violation of Cycle Day 1 Low (1961.60) forces yet more long liquidation…Lower targets to be mindful of are: 1957 – 1955.00 zone…1950.50 – 1947.50..Extremes measuring 1942.75 – 1938.00 projected low.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Five
I think in terms of probabilities. I do not know, all I have are probabilities. Probabilities are at the core of my decisions. Through consistent application of the probabilities, I will win.

Trade Strategy 12.16.14

With Crude Oil in a virtual free-fall with margin calls occurring on a daily basis, equities simply cannot overcome the negative momentum. As such, investors have continued to sell stocks in tandem with oil weakness…Until this has run its course and the final seller has been flushed out, expectation will be for more downside. Past shocks to the financial markets have lead to very sharp rebound rallies…So we all need to be on high-alert.

Today begins a new Cycle (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible High = 2018; Possible Low = 1958.75

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can hold above PDL (1974.50), THEN there is a 55% chance of retracing back up to 1988 – 90 zone. Conversion above this zone targets 2007.50 – 2010.25 zone. Deep upside extreme measures 2018 – 2020.75.

Scenario 2: Violation of PDL (2074.50) will force additional long liquidation…Downside targets are 1971.25 – 1967.50 zone…followed by 1966 – 1964…TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level at 1958.75, which is projected Low for today.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Four
I am at ease with controlled risk. I will risk and I will win. I am courageous. I will take a chance. I manage risk to my comfort level. Risk keeps me on my toes, keeps me alert and at the top of my game.

Trade Strategy 12.15.14

Friday’s late day sell-down into settlement (1990.75) may have been some final capitulation of longs, capping off a week of steady selling. From high to low measures approximately -4.08% covering 84.50 handles. Most if not all Market Internal Metrics are currently in deep statistically oversold condition, which sets up a higher probability reversion bounce.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3) and there are very good odds of for a positive session. Odds of a Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of a Rally > 20 = 53%; Possible High = 2033.50; Possible Low = 1975.50. Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.25.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: There are good odds (82%) of a rally > 10 handles today…Overnight trade has been primarily buyside with price +11.50 handles…Today’s bullish objective is to recapture CD1 low (2017.00), which would validate this cycle as bullish…Price will need to hold any retracement of early gains above 1994 – 96 zone. Upside targets 2008…2014.25 – 2017.00. IF price can convert CD1 Low (2017.00), THEN additional upside targets 2020.50 – 2025.25 3D CPZ.

Scenario 2: Should price give back all it’s early gains, a violation of 1994 targets a retest of Friday’s settlement (1990.75)…Violation and conversion below settlement targets 1984.75 – 1900.50 zone with deep extremes between 1979.25 – 1975.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Three
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.

 

Trade Strategy 12.12.14

Open Drive buying off the open created a massive short squeeze vaulting price up 20 handles during the morning session to reach STATX Zone…Only to give it all back and then some in the afternoon session as Crude Oil breached the $60 level, which created heavy margin selling. S&P is down approximately 3% off the high, which qualifies as a “normal correction”. We would now be anticipating responsive buying as price has reached measured targets at 2017 handle.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Possible High = 2058 – 60; Possible Low = 2017.00 Average range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Range = 22.25.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF Price can get back above 2023.25 and stabilize, THEN there is a 60% chance of retracing back to 2032 – 36 zone…followed by 3D CPZ 2039 – 43.25 zone.

Scenario 2: Should selling continue into day session, initial target is projected low of 2017 handle…Violation of this level would force long liquidation down to 2009.75 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level…Below this level are deep statistical extremes 2006 – 1999.25.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Two
I am detached from the results. I think in terms of the process and the validity of the process. I understand that I am more than the trading. I do not tie a fragile ego to any day’s trading results. I have faith that over time I will make money. The results of any one trade are statistically unimportant. I think in term of probability. A single trade says nothing about me as a person.