Trade Strategy 01.30.15

Thursday’s trade action was a picture perfect Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds favored a decline greater than 10…As price extended down to violation target of 1982.50 outlined in prior DTS 01.29.15. Once the last seller sold, Mr. Market, being more confident of a “secure low”, proceeded to aggressively bid up contract price, sparking a strong rally, driving prices 37 handles to settle at high of day.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…The Average Rally of 23.50 handles has clearly been exceeded on CD1…Expectation for today would normally be looking for some back n fill to absorb recent gains…We will stick with this assumption, but be mindful that momentum can continue to be strong.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2028.50 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 1965.22 based upon average violation of CD1 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price has closed at PDH (2019.50)…Residual momentum may continue to push price higher…IF price can clear and convert PDH (2019.50), THEN there is 55% chance of reaching expansion target of 2028.50.

Scenario 2: Assumption today is initially some “back n fill” price action to absorb recent price gains…Failure to convert PDH (2019.50), suggests the need to pullback to find renewed buy response for this cycle. Levels to be mindful of on retracement are 2001.00 – 2005 zone…Below this zone is VTMP 1997 handle, then 1992 – 96 HVN. Below this level targets LOD and potential for violation expansion targets 1970 – 1964.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Five
I think in terms of probabilities. I do not know, all I have are probabilities. Probabilities are at the core of my decisions. Through consistent application of the probabilities, I will win.

Trade Strategy 01.29.15

Failure of S&P e-mini (ES) to clear and convert the Open Range Midpoint (2036.00) was an early “tell” that Selling was the dominant force underpinning market dynamics. Federal Reserve FOMC comments only added fuel to a smoldering tinder-box. Violation of intra-day pivot support (2018) was the final spark that forced selling the remainder of the session, closing on the lows.

Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%, Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2018.00; Possible Low = 1980.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price is currently higher in pre-session trade by 10 handles…Prior Day Low (1991.25) will need to hold on any test during the day-session. IF buyers return in sufficient quantity and aggressiveness, THEN there is a 65% chance of price retracing back to 2010 – 2012 zone…Further strength above this zone targets 2018 – 2021.50 TargetMaster Range Level.

Scenario 2: Should selling continue in day-session and violate and convert PDL (1991.25), then expectation is for long liquidation. Lower price targets on a break lower measure 1982.50 – 1980.25 zone…down to 1975.00 STATX Zone. Deep Range Xtreme measures down to 1965.50 TargetMaster Breakown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Four
I am at ease with controlled risk. I will risk and I will win. I am courageous. I will take a chance. I manage risk to my comfort level. Risk keeps me on my toes, keeps me alert and at the top of my game.

 

Trade Strategy 01.28.15

Negative earnings reports from a few high-profile companies yesterday, worked to push S&P e-mini (ES) below Cycle Day 1 Low  down to average violation zone between 2012 – 2014…Actual LOD = 2013.25. Having confidence that a secure low was in place, buyers proceeded to auction prices higher throughout the session as high as 2036 handle before pulling back and settling near Volume Trend Midpoint (VTMP).

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2063 based upon penetration of CD2 (globex high); Possible Low = 2003 based upon average violation of CD2 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can clear and convert PDH (2037.00), THEN there is a 60% chance of expanding upwards to 2045.50 Cycle Price Target. Any momentum acceleration above this level targets 2052.00 (VT Hist 2)…2056.50 (D-Level)…2059.25 – 2061.50 (Money-Box).

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2037.00) and/or violation of 2034.00 CPZ targets CD1 Low 2025.50. Violation and conversion of CD1 Low targets a retest of PDL (2013.25) and TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level 2012.75. Deep expansion Xtreme measures 2002 handle.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Three
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.

Trade Strategy 01.27.15

Early push lower in yesterday’s pre-market found potentially a “secure-low” at 3D CPZ 2026 – 2030 level…During Pit Session price pushed higher throughout the day settling at HOD. Overnight trade Tuesday has price lower by 12 handles with expectation of Gap Open Lower…This pullback is within context of prior day’s range and is normal trade action.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Having potentially found a “secure-low” in prior session and subsequent rally all within same session, price has probably gone too far, too fast and may need some “back n fill” trade to absorb recent trade.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 44%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2064.50 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 2032 based upon average pullback on CD2.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: With strong rally in prior session, most of buy-side energy may have been expended too quickly…IF price can stabilize above the 2036 – 2040 3D CPZ, THEN there is a 57% chance of reaching 2048 – 2050.25 average rally on CD2…Should price be able to clear and convert PDH (2054.00), THEN expansionary targets measure 2062.25 – 2064.50.

Scenario 2: Expectation is for “back n fill” consolidation of prior session rally…Initial support zone 2037 – 2039…Failure to find responsive buyers in sufficient quantity within this zone targets a full range retracement down to TargetMaster Breakdown Level 2032.00. Below this level measures PDL (2025.50)

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Three
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.

Trade Strategy 01.26.15

Price consolidated gains during Friday’s session but was unable to hold those gains as price gave it up into settlement, closing on the lows. Overnight trade extending this weakness, as price traded down to Three-Day Central Pivot 2026 handle before bouncing back to 204, where price is currently trading pre-open.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2071 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible Low = 2027.50 based upon average violation of CD3 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can hold above PDH (2043.50) during Pit Session, THEN odds are even to push back to 2049.25 CPZ…IF price can convert this level, THEN additional upside measures 2055.75 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: Price has already exceeded average range metrics observed on CD1 in overnight trade action and has bounced 17 handles off lows back to near PDH (2043.50). IF price fails to clear and convert this level during Pit Session, THEN odds (75%) favor continued price weakness. Key Levels to be mindful of are 2032 – 2034 zone which is average decline zone on CD1. Below this zone measures 2026 – 28 zone, with Xtreme STATX Zone between 2023.50 – 2016.40…TargetMaster Range Breakdown level is 2014.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Two

I am detached from the results. I think in terms of the process and the validity of the process. I understand that I am more than the trading. I do not tie a fragile ego to any day’s trading results. I have faith that over time I will make money. The results of any one trade are statistically unimportant. I think in term of probability. A single trade says nothing about me as a person.

Trade Strategy 01.23.15

Our most optimistic upper price targets for yesterday’s session (2042.25) were easily surpassed with late day short covering acceleration rally which hit deep extreme STATX Level 2058.25 …Actual HOD 2059.25. Today’s extension targets 2067 – 69 zone.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3) All cycle targets have been achieved and exceeded with strong price momentum following ECB’s decision on QE for the Euro-Zone.

Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2069.75 based upon average penetration of CD2 high; Possible low = 2008 based upon average violation of CD2 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price remain firm in overnight trade holding above initial support zone between 2048 – 2051…IF price can maintain a bid above this zone and clear and convert PDH (2059.25), THEN there is a 60% chance of price extending to STATX Zone between 2064.50 – 2069.75. TargetMaster Range Breakout Level measures 2080.75.

Scenario 2: Price is currently trading near PDH (2059.25) in early-morning trade…IF price fails to clear and convert this level during the Pit Session, THEN there is a 40% chance of price pulling back to test key lower Central Pivot (2045.00). Below this level targets 2040 – 2038 zone down to 2032.25 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude One
I am ready to trade. My patterns are verified. My homework is complete. My mind is clear. I have rehearsed everything. I am prepared strategically, emotionally, and financially each and every day.

Trade Strategy 01.22.15

Yesterday was Cycle Day 1 (CD1) and as scripted in Scenario 2 of prior DTS 01.21.15, price probed lower to find a new “secure low” just above average decline target of 2004.00…Actual Low of Day was 2005.25. Once Mr. Market was confident in that low, price rallied the remainder of the day to reach initial cycle targets between 2027.50 – 2029.00.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Having reached initial cycle targets noted above, price may need a temporary break and consolidate recent gains. Here are today’s numbers the “Magic 8-Ball” is showing: Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 44 %; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2042.25 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 1986.75 based upon average violation of CD1 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price has reached initial cycle target zone noted above (2027.50 – 2029.00)…As such, price momentum remains bullish, but may need some back n fill to absorb recent price strength…IF price can hold above 2021.75 CPZ, AND clear and convert PDH (2032.75), THEN there is a 55% chance of extending higher to reach 2038.75…2041…2042.50. Above these levels measures 2052.25 TargetMaster Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: Failure to clear and convert PDH (2032.75), suggests the needed back n fill consolidation to absorb recent strength…Initial support is 2021.75 CPZ, then 2014.75 – 2016.75 3D CPZ. Failure of a buy response in sufficient quantity as the levels targets lowers extreme levels 2008 – 2004.75 STATX Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Twelve
I am disciplined. I behave in a way to reach my goals. I do what I intend to do. I have the intent to win through right actions. I will be patient for patterns to emerge and mature. I am decisive. I decide easily and act promptly. I act in the right way and right on time. When there is nothing to be done, I will wait.

Trade Strategy 01.21.15

Failure to hold gap higher during the Open Range resulted in aggressive selling with enough momentum to reach our lower price target of 1998.00 outlined in prior Daily Trade Strategy Briefing 01.20.15With sellers flushed out at lows, bulls regained control reversing price to settle price in the upper quartile of days range.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD 1)…We normally would be anticipating some price weakness as traders probe for a new “secure low”. Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2035 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible Low = 1988 based upon average violation of CD3 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price will need to find responsive buyers in sufficient quantity on any pullback in price…Initial support test will be within the 3D CPZ (2006 – 2010)…Average Decline of 22.50 handles observed on CD1 targets 2004.00 for potential support. IF price can hold pullback, THEN clearing and converting 2013.00 targets 2019.25, then 2026.50.

Scenario 2: Expectation is for price weakness on CD1…Average Decline = 22.50…This targets a potential pullback low of 2004, measured from PDH (2026.50). Failure to find responsive buyers on pullbacks targets 1999.00 – 1995.50 STATX Zone. Violation of PDL (1997.50) would force long liquidation targeting TargetMaster Breakdown Level 1988.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Eleven
I am courageous and I always act, even in the face of uncertainty and possible loss. Do not say, no fear. Feel the fear and act anyway. I may be frightened, but I still saddle up. I am not reckless. I act promptly in accordance with my methodology. I respect my calculations. I have a healthy respect and I balance that respect with my courage. I am an explorer. I am on a hero’s journey.

 

Trade Strategy 01.20.15

Friday’s rally took a pause yesterday for MLK Observance, but has reignited in overnight trade action pushing price upwards to test key 2026 handle high from 1.15.15. Further strength and conversion of this level projects range expansion target of 2039.50.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3) Positive Three-Day Cycle has already been achieved, so any further strength is impulsive (expansionary) trade dynamics. Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2032 based upon average penetration and conversion of CD2 high; Possible Low = 1992 based upon average violation of CD2 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price held key support at 3D CPZ (2002) during shortened holiday trade, which projects a 60% chance of retesting PDH (2023.75)…Successful clearing and conversion of this level targets 2029.25, then 2032.00 projected HOD…IF momentum remains strong, expansionary price target measures 2039.50 TargetMaster Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: Price is currently testing PDH (2023.75) in pre-market trade…Failure to convert this level during pit-session trade suggests necessary back n fill to attract new buying…Initial structural support zone between 2010.00 – 2013.50 CPZ. Violation of this zone target PDL  (2023.75) and 3D CPZ (2001.25 – 2002.75). Extreme downside zones measure 1998. 1995.50…1992.00.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Ten
I know anything can happen, and I can handle anything that does happen. I am open minded. My thoughts and perceptions are clear. I know what to look for. I have rehearsed everything. I adapt to change. I will listen to my indicators and the patterns that emerge. I will adjust and not demand that things continue as they first started

Trade Strategy 01.16.15

Continued volatility made for large price swings the past few days with an overall downward directional bias, as professional traders continue to sell rallies to key resistance zones. Price in the overnight trade hit our projected target of 1970 we had outlined in yesterday’s Daily Trade Strategy 01.15.15.

Today begins a New Cycle (CD1)…Price has currently reached initial CD1 price target zone between 1970 – 1975. We will mark this zone as “Key Support” until violated…It is critical that no further selling develops below this zone, otherwise another round of long liquidation may unfold.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 70%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible High = 2035 based upon penetration and conversion of PDH (2027.25); Possible Low = 1970 based upon violation of PDL (1984.75)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price must hold 1970 handle and get back above PDL (1984.75) for bullish case…IF price can clear and convert 1984.75, THEN there is a 55% chance of retracement rally up to 1995 handle…Above this level targets 2001 – 2006, then 2011 TargetMaster Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: Price has violated PDL (1984.75) in overnight trade and has tested projected low (1970)…Failure to clear and convert 1984.75, and subsequent violation of overnight low 1970 handle, projects further downside selling which targets 1964.75..1960.75 zone, with extreme projection down to 1950.50 TargetMaster Breakdown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Nine
I will identify my mistakes and learn from them. I am optimistic, realistic and honest. I will not make up stories about the good or bad things that occurred in the past or are happening now. I admit when something is not working. My optimism gives me faith and courage. I will not fall prey to blame and fear.