Trade Strategy 02.27.15

Consolidation above 2100 enters its fifth-day with continued light volumes. The key levels to be mindful of are the upper and lower range edges…2100.00 – 2116.00. Violation or Penetration with Conversion sets the stage for new directional move. Stay Alert!

Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…The past cycle has been relatively compressed within the narrow range, So we will continue to monitor for range expansion.

Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2126 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible Low = 2089.25 based upon average violation of CD3 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 02.17.15

 

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can clear and convert PDH (2112.25), THEN there is a 50% chance of price extending to 2115.75…Above this level price expansion targets are 2119.75 – 2121.75 D-Level Money Box Zone. Cycle Targets measure between 2123.50 – 2126.00

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2112.25) keeps price in a compressed range, which increases odds (75%) of testing lower price edge 2100.00. Violation and conversion of this level targets 2098.00 – 2096.00 zone…There is high VPOC confluence between 2095.50 – 2089.00.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude One
I am ready to trade. My patterns are verified. My homework is complete. My mind is clear. I have rehearsed everything. I am prepared strategically, emotionally, and financially each and every day.

Trade Strategy 02.26.15

Range as measured by 5-day Average True Range now stands at 10.42, which means daily ranges continue to compress…VIX index is now back to 13.84 as complacency has reemerged…Daily volumes have been consistently below 20 day averages…Cumulative Delta’s have reversed to negative even as price notches new all-time highs. These are the observational facts underlying current price action…The bull is still alive collectively across market sectors, but does not seem to be to aggressive at current levels…This could set the stage for pullback in price so stay alert.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2127.50; Possible Low = 2099.75

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click on icon below to view TargetMaster Chart

 

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Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: If price can clear & convert PDH (2117.75), THEN there is a 55% chance of price extending to TargetMaster Breakout Level 2121.25…Above this level measures multiple expansion levels between 2125.00 – 2129.75.

Scenario 2: Initial resistance is marked at 2115 handle…Failure to convert this level keeps price contained in recent 2-day range. Key support is marked at 2106 – 2108 zone. Violation and conversion of this zone opens door to deeper downside pullback which measures 2103.50 – 2102.75 zone. Breakdown through this zone targets 2099.75 which was the breakout level. Deep extremes measure between 2098.50 – 2094.75.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Twelve
I am disciplined. I behave in a way to reach my goals. I do what I intend to do. I have the intent to win through right actions. I will be patient for patterns to emerge and mature. I am decisive. I decide easily and act promptly. I act in the right way and right on time. When there is nothing to be done, I will wait.

 

Trade Strategy 02.25.15

Bulls continue to rule as a steady stream of buying across all sectors continue to auction price higher, albeit on below average volumes. This trend is anticipated to persist until there is a counter-force greater to satisfy current demand. One notable observation from prior session was $1.7B Market on Close Sell Imbalance. Looks like the Institutions are booking some month-end profits…Though one day of imbalances doesn’t mean much, but it is worth keeping close watch…Follow the Money!

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2124.25 based on average expansion above CD1 high; Possible Low = 2102.25 based on average range on CD2.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click on icon below to view TargetMaster Chart

 

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: Price hit initial price target (2113.75) in prior session…Continued strength with conversion above PDH (2115.75) is required for further expansion. IF converted, THEN there is a 65% chance of reaching 2118.75, followed by 2120.75…Cycle Range expansion target is 2124.25.

Scenario 2: Failure to clear and convert PDH (2115.75) suggests waning demand, with expectation then for pullback to find renewed responsive buyers. Lower levels to be mindful of are; 2110.75 CPZ, followed by 2107.00 – 2105.00 3D CPZ. Average range price target 2103.75. Violation of PDL (2102.75)

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

 

Habitude Eleven
I am courageous and I always act, even in the face of uncertainty and possible loss. Do not say, no fear. Feel the fear and act anyway. I may be frightened, but I still saddle up. I am not reckless. I act promptly in accordance with my methodology. I respect my calculations. I have a healthy respect and I balance that respect with my courage. I am an explorer. I am on a hero’s journey.

Trade Strategy 02.24.15

Yesterday’s trade was can be characterized are “quiet consolidation”, as price traded within a very narrow range with volumes well below average, forming an “Inside Day”. Overnight trade is also very light with 63K contracts trading as of 7 am ET.

Fedspeak comes alive today with Janet Yellen in Washington. The jobs market and inflation expectations are two of the hot topics. Expectations going into her testimony are for a mid-year rate hike. So it looks as though Mr. Market will be tuned into today’s testimony before making its next move.

Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Typically we would be expecting some magnitude of decline to probe for a new “secure cycle low”…Given recent broad strength, any decline may be relatively shallow in magnitude. Below are the normalized range values that occur on Cycle Day 1.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range =22.00; Possible High =  2117.50 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible Low = 2089.50 based upon average decline on CD1.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 02.24.15Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can Clear and Convert PDH (2108.75), THEN there is a 45% chance of price extending to 2110.00…Should price continue to have bullish momentum above this level, then expansion to 2113.75 through 2116.75 is targeted. Xtreme upside measures TargetMaster Range Breakout Level 2117.50.

Scenario 2: Yesterday was an Inside Day with low energy…Failure to convert above PDH (2108.75) increases potential for a pullback in price to attract renewed buying, which fits nicely into Cycle Day 1 odds of price decline. Downside levels to be mindful of are 2105.50 – 2104 Central Pivot Zone, followed by 2101.25 – 2097.75 3D CPZ. Below this zone targets TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level 2095.00. Average Range Target measures 2089.25.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Ten
I know anything can happen, and I can handle anything that does happen. I am open minded. My thoughts and perceptions are clear. I know what to look for. I have rehearsed everything. I adapt to change. I will listen to my indicators and the patterns that emerge. I will adjust and not demand that things continue as they first started.

Trade Strategy 02.23.15

All-time contract high in the S&P 500…Continued strength in economically sensitive sectors…technology on a bullish role…Mutual Fund buying spree all help to propel prices upwards. Price high our projected target of 2107.50 outlined in Friday’s Daily Trade Strategy 02.20.15. We will need to see some follow-through bullish trading to have increased confidence of sustainability. If price retreats and trades  back down into last weeks trading range would be a negative development. Violation of 2080 handle on a daily closing basis would place current bullish condition on bear notice.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Initial cycle targets have already been achieved, though additional expansion levels remain high potential. Odds of Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2113.75 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 2076.25 based upon average violation of CD2 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 02.23.15Today Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can hold above 2100 Central Pivot and THEN clear and convert PDH (2108.75)…there is a 60% chance of price expanding to 2113.75 Cycle Target followed by TargetMaster Range Breakout level 2119.00.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2108.75) suggests a period of “back n fill” of the breakout…Price will need to find continued responsive buyers at or above 2100 to keep the breakout intact. Violation of 2100 targets 2096.00 – 2094.25 3D CPZ…Below this zone measures 2088 – 2086 zone. If price violates PDL (2082.25) lower levels to target are 2076.25 down to 2070.50 Xtremes.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Nine
I will identify my mistakes and learn from them. I am optimistic, realistic and honest. I will not make up stories about the good or bad things that occurred in the past or are happening now. I admit when something is not working. My optimism gives me faith and courage. I will not fall prey to blame and fear.

Trade Strategy 02.20.15

Continued bullish consolidation has now reached day-five, with option holders of 2100 Call Strike expiring worthless, which could open the door to a big “gun n run” of buy-stops above 2100 today, so be on high alert!

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is holding above “key support” at the 2088 handle with good odds of making highs above 2100. Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2111.25; Possible Low = 2071.75

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 02.20.15

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF Price Converts PDH (2099.50), THEN there is a 65% chance of expanding to 2102.25, followed by 2105.50 – 2107.50 zone, with cycle expansion target 2111.25.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2092 handle, THEN there is a 35% chance of retesting PDL (2087.25). Violation of this level increases odds of deeper move lower targeting 2085 – 2082 zone…Below this zone measures down to 2078.25 – 2074.50 STATX Zone, with Xtreme 2071.75.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Eight
I can recover from any setback. I have an attitude of abundance. I affirm abundance in the universe. I know I cannot begin to count the stars. I realize the ocean doesn’t care whether I go to it with a bucket or a teaspoon. I know the market provides a river of opportunities. I invest in my capabilities. I will be happy with my results.

Trade Strategy 02.19.15

Yesterday was a quiet trading session characterized by light relative volume and narrow “inside range day”. This week is options expiration…There is a large Strike Price @ 2100…So trade at or below this strike for remainder of this week would cause all Calls to expire worthless.

Overnight trade traded as high as 2099.50 before backing off, and is currently trading at 3D VTMP 2093.00. Current 10-handle range between 2088.00 – 2098.00 is the playground.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2108 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible Low = 2075.75 based upon average violation of CD3 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: If Price can Clear & Convert PDH (2098.50), THEN there is a 45% chance of extending to 2100.50 followed by 2103.25 with TargetMaster Range Breakout Level @ 2108.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2098.50) keeps price within 3-Day Range as expiring options may act to suppress any further upside movement. Initial range support is located at 2088 handle. Violation and conversion of this level targets a move lower to TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level 2082.25. Continued weakness below this level measures 2078 STATX, 2075.75…2073.00.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Seven
I take the long term view. I am willing to lose in the short term. I understand that losses are a necessary cost of doing business, like inventory to a merchant. Drawdowns are viewed as temporary. I realize that my wins and winning periods are part of the broad process. Each trade is but one in a string of trades. What is happening now is one piece of a much larger puzzle. Because of this I do not get overly euphoric or despondent.

Trade Strategy 02.18.15

Yesterday was a solid Cycle Day 2 (CD2) whereby price rallied to reach extension target of 2098.50 outlined in Daily Trade Strategy 02.17.15. Here’s an excerpt: Scenario 1: IF price can Clear and Convert (C&C) PDH (2093.75), THEN there is a 50 % chance of expanding range to 2098.50…”

Markets are quiet in overnight session trading within a narrow band holding above initial minor support 2094.25, though price has not expanded above prior session high 2098.75.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Odd of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2115.00; Possible Low = 2080.75.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can Clear and Convert (C&C) PDH (2098.75), THEN there is a 60% chance of reaching 2100.00 – 2103.00 STATX Zone…Above this zone targets 2106 – 2109, then 2100 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level. Cycle Expansion Target is 2115.00.

Scenario 2: Having reached minimum cycle target (2098.50) in prior session, this level will need to be converted to continue the bullish rally. Yesterday’s Market on Close (MOC) Imbalance was $1.7B to sell-side. What this means is that large mutual funds have begun taking profits within this current up cycle. Failure to C&C PDH (2098.75) suggests buying is temporarily satisfied, which could lead to a more significant pullback in price. Levels to be mindful of on pullback are: 2091.50 – 2089.00 3D CPZ. Below this levels targets 2083.50 – 2080.75.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Six
I am at peace with uncertainty. I know there is no such thing as a sure thing. I have no particular need to be right. I understand that being perfect has no place in trading. I am flexible. I am willing to change my mind. I am alert to scenario changes. I accept the information that tells me I am on the right track or on the wrong track.

 

Trade Strategy 02.17.15

Markets were closed Monday for President’s Day Holiday…Yesterday was also Cycle Day 1 (CD1) and price did produce a small decline during the shortened Globex Session. Price found support within the Three-Day Central Pivot Zone which overlapped with STATX Zone above 2083.00 handle. We’ll mark this level as “Key Support” on any retest.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Having probed low and find responsive buying at 2083 level, price has bounced back in pre-market trade near to recent high 2093.75. Momentum remains in place from last week as large institutional buying dominates the trading landscape.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD3 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 21.08.50 based upon average penetration of CD1 high. Possible Low = 2071.50 based upon max average range on CD2.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price can Clear and Convert (C&C) PDH (2093.75), THEN there is a 50 % chance of expanding range to 2098.50, followed by 2102.50 average expansion on CD2. Above this level measures 2106 – 2108.50.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2093.75) keeps price within 10 handle range (2083 – 2093). Violation and conversion of 2083.00 targets 2077.50 – 2075 zone. Below this zone measure max average range value down to 2071.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Four
I am at ease with controlled risk. I will risk and I will win. I am courageous. I will take a chance. I manage risk to my comfort level. Risk keeps me on my toes, keeps me alert and at the top of my game.

02.16.15 President Day Holiday Markets Closed