Trade Strategy 03.31.15

Yesterday finished the session with a strong auction closing just off highs and surpassed Cycle Targets. Keep in mind that the 10-day Average Daily Range now stands at 22.90 handles, so it should come as no surprise that current cycle targets are being achieved more quickly. We will continue to anticipate wider intra-day ranges and adjust our tactical trade management accordingly to capture greater Alpha.

Today is Cycle day 2 (CD2)…Cycle Targets have been achieved and surpassed…As such we are anticipating pullback from highs to consolidate recent gains.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2090.75 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 2055.00

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

03.31.15

 

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price can hold above 2061 handles on pullback with renewed buy response, THEN there is 70% chance of reaching 2074 handle. Continued strength above this level targets retest of PH (2081.75) Clear and Convert this level targets expansion measuring 2090 handle.

Scenario 2: Failure to hold 2061 handles on pullback, suggests deeper decline to attract buy response. Levels to be mindful of are 3D CPZ 2056.75 – 2053.25…Below this zone targets PL (2047.25)…Violation of this level opens door to 2035 deep Range Xtreme.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 03.30.15

Price action oscillates from periods of compression to periods of expansion…Last weeks action began as expansion and ended as compression…Overnight trade has expanded upwards, currently by +10 handles testing the 2065 – 68. NOTE: 2068.75 represents the 5-Day Volume Trend (VWAP).

Today begins a new Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…The low was established early in in overnight trade, with “Key Cycle Low” marked at PL (2041)…Cycle Targets has already been achieved at 2068.50, so today we will be looking for price to hold above PH (2057.75).

Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2069.50; Possible Low = 2027.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.30.15

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Price has already achieved bullish cycle targets (2068.50) in overnight trade. Expectation for today will be for price to hold above PH (2057.75) to keep upside momentum intact. Any pullback during Pit Session should find responsive buyers within the 3D CPZ (2055.50 – -2053.50). Upper STAT-X Zone measures between 2071.50 – 2077.25.

Scenario 2: Failure to hold above PH (2057.75) suggests some pullback to find responsive buyers within the 3D CPZ …Violation below this zone warrants deeper corrective price action targeting PL (2041.00). Violation and conversion below this level measures TargetMaster Breakdown Level 2036.00, with Range Xtreme between 2030.50 – 2027.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 03.27.15

Buyers responded to recent price weakness resulting in an oversold rally which reached our projected retracement level (2055.75) outlined in DTS 03.26.15 Scenario 1. In overnight trade price retested prior high (2058.75) and was rejected, pushing price back down to Central Pivot Zone 2046.00 – 2048.50. Expectation for today is further consolidation within recent range 2033 – 2058.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds od 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2066.00 based upon average penetration of CD2 high; Possible Low = 2021.50 based upon average violation of CD2 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.27.15

 

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF Price holds above 2039.50, THEN there is a 40% chance of making high above PH (2058.75)…IF this level is converted, THEN upside target 2066.00 – 2069.50 3D CPZ.

Scenario 2: Violation of 2039.50 increases odds (55%) of retesting PL (2033.25) targeting TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level 2031.25. Below this level measures 2021.50 extreme low.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 03.26.15

S&P collapsed under it’s own pressure as key support 2078 handle was violated settling near FED Day Low. Overnight trade continued to push price lower to TargetMaster Breakdown Level 2038, with deep extreme near March 12th pivot low.This recent price action deals a significant blow to the bullish case since the Fed has indicated their willingness to raise interest rates, effectively self-hand cuffing and letting the Markets stand on their own. Are They Ready and Able?

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Having closed on lows, price momentum should push price lower to violation levels before any rally attempt. Odds of Rally > 20 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 43%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2079.25 based upon average rally; Possible Low = 2037.50 based upon average violation of CD1 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.26.15

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Price has reached lower violation levels 2038.00…Price will need to hold this level during pit session for any recovery attempt to unfold. There are favorable odds (70%) of rally between 10 – 20 handles should no further significant weakness occur. Upside retracement targets 2055.75 which equals the max average range measured from overnight low. Above this level targets Central Pivot 2066.00.

Scenario 2: Violation of PDL (2052.25) targets 2041.26 – 2038 TargetMaster Breakdown level. Price has reached this level during overnight trade..IF price violates overnight lows with increased selling pressure, THEN extreme downside targets 2028, 2023 then 2019 STAT-X Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

 

 

Trade Strategy 03.25.15

Latest Cycle Targets had been fulfilled early (2107) following FED Announcement last week. Failure to expand further setup yesterday’s sell-down following attempts to auction higher were thwarted by sellers at 2101 handle. We had projected the possible session low to be 2082.50…actual LOD 2083. DTS 03.24.15 In overnight trade price is currently holding at the 2082.75 level, so it will be important for bulls to respond or further price weakness may continue.

Today begins New Cycle Day 1 (CD1); Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2113.00; Possible Low = 2072.25

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.25.15

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Having reached projected range target of 2082.50 on CD3..It’ll be critical for PDL (2083.00) to hold any test during Pit Session. IF this occurs, THEN there is a 50% chance of bounce targeting 2089.75 – 2092.00, followed by 2093.75 – 2094.75 3D CPZ.

Scenario 2: Further probe for secure low is more likely today since price closed on lows of prior session and today is CD1, which is normally a weak session. IF price violates and converts PDL (2083.00), THEN odds (73%) favor further downside initially targeting 2079.50, followed by 2075.50 – 2072.25. TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level 2065.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 03.24.15

Monday’s price consolidation was exactly what we were looking for following strong price action into last week’s settlement. Daily Trade Strategy 03.23.15 Trading range was relatively narrow at 7.75 handles with very few setups…Scalpers had intra-day control as volumes were below 1M contracts. Market on Close sell imbalance $550M drove price lower the last 15 minutes of session producing an “Inside-Day”.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2115 based upon average penetration of CD2 high; Possible Low = 2082.50 based upon average violation of CD2 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.24.15

 

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF Price holds at or above 2092.25, THEN there is a 70% chance of making a high above PDH (2107.00), with potential to expand upwards to 2115.50.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2107.00) keeps price within prior session range and in consolidation mode. Anticipated buy response would be at following levels: 2094.75 – 2092.25 zone; 2088.75 – 2085.25 3D CPZ. IF these zones are violated THEN price targets 2077.25 – 2075.25 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 03.23.15

S&P 500 Index is within striking distance of making new highs following solid performance on the heals of FED announcement. Options expiration and index re-balancing was the main action on Friday as price held strong bid throughout the session. Initial Cycle Targets has been achieved at 2104.00.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD 2) Having reached initial cycle targets, some back n fill is more likely today’s call to solidify new support level. Primary support is anticipated between 2092.25 – 2094.75 zone.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2115.50 based upon average penetration od CD1 high; Possible Low = 2084.25 based upon max avg range on CD2.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.23.15

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF Price holds at or above 2092.25, THEN there is a 70% chance of making a high above PDH (2106.75), with potential to expand upwards to 2115.50.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2106.75) keeps price within prior session range and in consolidation mode. Anticipated buy response would be at following levels: 2094.75 – 2092.25 zone; 2088.75 – 2085.25 3D CPZ. IF these zones are violated THEN price targets 2077.25 – 2075.25 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 03.20.15

As outlined in Scenario 2 of yesterday’s Daily Trade Strategy 03.19.15 S&P e-mini found support at projected low-of-day (2078.00) and consolidated the Fed Day sharp run-up.

In overnight trade, prior day’s low has held firm and is currently up by 10 handles near 2090. Expectation for today will be for continued buying interest on any dip in price as confidence continues to build for ultimate retest of all-time highs and possibly new highs in the coming days.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normally we would be looking for a decline…We believe that decline occurred on CD3 following the run-up in price. With no further weakness overnight in price, the new cycle rally appears to have begun, with initial upside Cycle Target 2095 handle, followed by 2098.00.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Avergae Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2109.75 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible Low = 2066 based upon average violation of CD3 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.20.15

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Having held above PDL (2076.50), expectation is for Cycle Rally to begin which initially targets 2095 handle. Any pullback is expected for illicit a buy response above the Daily Central Pivot 2085.00. IF price can penetrate and convert PDH (2099), THEN range expansion targets 2102.00 TargetMaster Breakout Level, followed by 2107.50 – 2109.75.

Scenario 2: Violation of 2085 on pullback increases odds of retest of PDL (2076.50). Should this low fail to hold, then downside targets 2074 – 2072.00 STAT-X Zone. Below this zone measures 2066.00 – 2064.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 03.19.15

Janet Yellen Delivers! As expected the word “patient” was removed from policy language, which the market was anticipating an increase in interest rates as early as April – June.  The central bank said it would raise rates when it is reasonably confident that low-inflation is on track to return to its 2% target and as long as the job market keeps improving, but offered several reasons it is still in no great rush to walk through.

Markets vaulted an astonishing 47.50 handles in a matter of minutes immediately following release of Fed Decision, and continued to hold bid throughout the remainder of trading session. Never underestimate the Power of the Federal Reserve.

In overnight trade, ES continues to hold bid only 10 handles off yesterday’s high…This continues to be a solid sign of strength, as it appears buyers remain eager to respond on any price dip.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…All Cycle Price Targets have been exceeded…Residual momentum may continue into the Pit Session until the buyers are exhausted.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82% (achieved and exceeded)…Odds of 3D Rally . 20 = 54% (achieved and exceeded); Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2108 based upon penetration of CD2 high; Possible Low = 2078 based upon max avg range of CD3.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.19.15

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF Price can hold at or above 2081.50 on pullback, THEN there is 45% chance of retesting PDH (2099.75). IF this level is cleared and converted, THEN upside extension targets 2105.25 – 2110.75 STATX Zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2099.75) suggests buyers are exhausted and some consolidation of prior day’s rally is required. Levels to be mindful of on pullbacks are 2086 – 2088 for initial support…Below this zone are layered levels that could illict a buy response…They are: 2081.50 Central Pivot…2078 – 2076, then 2070.25 – 2068.50 3D CPZ.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 03.18.15

All focus today will be on FOMC Policy Decision and Janet Yellen’s press conference beginning at 2:30 pm ET. Also, with the high potential of interest rates rising in the near future, the US Dollar has risen sharply against major currencies. Since Crude Oil is priced in dollars, this has the net effect of weakening crude oil…add-on continued increasing supplies of the “black gold” has pushed oil to six-year lows.

S&P is lower in overnight trade holding just above prior lows…Yesterday’s bullish action has all but been reversed as nervousness ahead of FED Decision has tempered buyers. HIGH SURF WARNING is in effect today.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2084.75; Possible Low = 2043.00

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

TMXZ 03.18.15

Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF Price holds above 2056.50, THEN there is an 83% chance of rallying greater than 10 handles targeting 2066.50. Above this level targets PDH (2070.50). There is a 65% chance of making expansion high to 2077 IF this level is converted.

Scenario 2: Violation and Conversion of PDL (2056.25) initially targets 2054.00, then 2052- 2050 zone. TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level measures 2048.00.

****FED DAY volatility may create very wide gyrations in price today as traders react to announcement and press conference responses. STAY ALERT!  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.” -Bruce Lee