Trade Strategy 04.30.15

Cycle Day 2 (CD2) unfolded as expected, ranging between anticipated cycle support (2090.00) and Three-Day Pivot (2107.00). Current swing is in the downward direction and as such selling bounces is the current strategy until key decision levels, 2104, 2108, 2112 are cleared and converted.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has reached cycle target (2112.00), but has retreated back lower to Cycle Day 1 Low (2088 – 2090) zone. Price will need to hold above this zone for bullish case, otherwise deeper down correction may unfold.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2108.75 based upon average range on CD3; Possible Low = 2078.50 based upon average violation of CD2 Low on CD3.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Price will need to hold above 2090.25 for bullish case…IF this occurs, THEN there is 55% chance of reaching 2100.25 Central Pivot. Strength above this level targets 2104.00, then 2108.75 projected range target.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2090 – 2088 “key support” zone opens door for deeper downside…Lower levels to be mindful of are 2085, 2082.50 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level, followed by violation targets between 2080.00 – 2078.50.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 04.29.15

Yesterday was an amazing trading session displaying the accuracy of the 3-Day Cycle parameters. First, the projected Low Of Day (LOD) calculated 2088.75…Actual LOD was 2088.25. Second, Max Average Range (MAR) on CD1 was 22.00…MAR + LOD = 2110.25 which was the exact High Of Day (HOD) for the NY Cash Session.

The sell down and reversal was certainly driven by the algorithms on reported news from the Middle East…That said, the Algos are indeed “tuned-in” to the 3-Day Cycle parameters and as such, it’s important to get a better understanding of the 3-Day Cycle.

Today is Cycle day 2 (CD2)…Having satisfied both upper and lower price parameters, today may be a “wandering” session. We will mark 2112.50 handle as “Key Resistance” and 2098.00 as “Key Support”. Clear and Convert either level will extend range.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2120.50 based upon converting PH (2112.50); Possible Low = 2098.00 based upon average decline.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF Price Clears and Converts PH (2112.50), THEN odds (60%) favor a move to 2116.25 – 2119.00 STATX Zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2112.50) suggest the need for pullback to find renewed buy response. Levels to be mindful of for potential support are: 2105.50 – 2108 3D CPZ. Below this zone is 2104 – 2100.50 Central Pivot Zone. Key Support marked at 2098.00.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 04.28.15

Yesterday was a perfect Cycle Day 3 (CD3), as price pushed above prior high sucking-in the last buyer at 2118.25 outlined in Scenario 1 of Prior DTS 04.27.15. Violation of 2114.75 forced a price reversal which took price down to projected Cycle Low of 2098 in overnight trade. Majority of decline is in-place as new cycle begins, but we won’t rule out further weakness to probe for new secure cycle low. Key Resistance is now marked at 2106 – 2108 zone for bulls to recapture dominance…For now, Bears have the ball!

Today is Cycle day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2113.75 based upon average range; Possible Low = 2088.75 based upon average violation of CD3 low on CD1.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

 

Scenario 1: Price is currently trading near overnight lows (2095.25) and below PL (2100.25). Bulls will need to stem further declines and clear and convert 2100.25 to increase chance for recover prior day’s losses. Initial upside target is 2102.50, followed by 2104.50. IF price can rally with enough strength, THEN additional upside targets between 2106 – 2110 zone.

 

Scenario 2: Having closed on the LOD (2100.25), selling momentum is expected to continue as price probes for renewed buy response and “Secure Cycle Low”. Downside targets to be mindful of are 2096.00 STATX Zone, followed by 2093.75, then 2088.75 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level.

              

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

 

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

 

Good Trading…David

 

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” – Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 04.27.15

Bulls regained full control last week as price has cleared above highs of recent trading range. This clears the way for new contract highs in S&P following on the heals of Nasdaq and Russell 2000 price strength.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3) Having closed in the upper quartile of prior days range, bullish momentum is expected to push price higher.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2122.50 based upon average penetration of CD2 high; Possible Low = 2098 based upon average range on CD3.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: With bull momentum intact, clearing and converting PH (2114.75) increases odds (54%) of extending cycle upwards to 2118.25, then 2122.50. TargetMaster Range Breakout Level 2128.50.

Scenario 2: Having cleared PH (2114.75) in overnight trade, bulls will need to maintain bid above this level to keep momentum for higher price. Violation of PH (2114.75) during Cash Session suggests failed breakout and sets up decline into prior days range. Downside price targets 2110 – 2109.50 Central Pivot Zone…Below this zone deeper decline can occur with next target 2104.25 – 2100.75 3D CPZ. TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level 2098.00.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 04.24.15

Price reached our projected HOD target (2113.25) outlined in prior Daily Trade Strategy 04.23.15. Here is excerpt: “Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Possible High = 2113.25 based upon average penetration of CD3 high.”

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Having reached projected target, expectation for today’s session is some back n fill price action to absorb recent gains, with an upward trade bias.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High =  2122.50 based upon converting CD1 high; Possible Low = 2100 based upon average range on CD2.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF PH (2114.50) clears and converts, THEN there is a 60% chance of extending to 2117.00 – 2120.25 STATX Zone. Above this zone measures 2122.50, then 2126.75 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: Having satisfied initial range projection in prior session, some back n fill price action is expected…Pullback levels to be mindful of for renewed buy response are: 2103.50 Central Pivot, then 2098.50 – 2096.50 3D CPZ. Violation of these levels targets deeper pullback targeting 2092 then 2090 – 2086.75 Targetmaster Range Breakdown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 04.23.15

Same Story…Different Day…Range Trade continues within established boundaries. Down thrusts are losing momentum as well as up thrusts. Current range has also narrowed between 2080 – 2105. Until either of those levels are decisively converted, expect more of the “same ole song and dance”.

Yesterday’s projected low 2080 hit on target as outlined in DTS 04.22.15 Scenario 2. Ensuing rally also hit projected range target of 2101.50 observed on Cycle Day 3, and as such, completed a perfect 3-Day Cycle sequence.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2113.25 based upon average penetration of CD3 high; Possible Low = 2085.00 based upon average decline on CD1.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2103.75), THEN there is a 60% chance of reaching 2106.00 – 2108.75 STATX Zone. Above this zone expands upwards to 2113.25, then 2116.75 TargetMaster Range Breakout Target.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2103.75) increases odds (71%) of 10 handle decline..Currently overnight trade has satisfied these high odds with price trading 2092.00. IF price violates the 2092 level during cash market trade, THEN odds (45%) favor further weakness down to average range target 2085.00.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 04.22.15

Global instability…Mixed Corporate Earnings…has kept investors/traders on the sidelines while the algorithms push price upwards and downwards intra-day creating consternation and concern about the markets next direction. Until price clears 2110 handle on upside, it’s more of the same multi-week range bound trade.

As stated in prior DTS Briefing 04.21.15 Cycle Target 2105 has been achieved and as such, has fulfilled this cycle’s objective. Failing to expand beyond this level now has price retreating downward to probe for new buy response. Key zone for potential support is between 2080 – 2085…Upside resistance is now marked between 2094 – 2098 zone.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Cycle objectives have been fulfilled increasing odds of decline beginning to probe for new secure low.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82% (achieved); Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53% (achieved); Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2113 based upon average penetration of CD2 high; Possible Low = 2073.50 based upon average violation of CD2 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Price is lower in overnight trade…Holding above CD1 Low is critical for bullish case. IF Price can hold above 2078.50, THEN odds favor recovery back to 2094 – 98 zone. Clearing and converting this zone suggests bulls have regained control, then targeting retest of PH 2105.25. Above this level range expansion can occur targeting 2108.50, then 2113.00.

Scenario 2: Price is lower in overnight trade…Continued weakness to probe for new secure low between 2080 – 2085 is expected. Violation of this zone warrants deeper downside action targeting 2078.50, then 2075.50 – 2073.50 Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 04.21.15

Bullish action continues to expand price higher to yet again test upper edge of multi-week trading range. There are signs favoring an upside resolution, but has yet to occur. As such until price clears and converts 2110 handle, we will continue to treat action as range bound consolidation.

Having closed strong in yesterday’s range, price has pushed higher on overnight trade to reach Cycle Target of 2105.00. Price will need to exceed this level for further upside range expansion.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2); Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 44%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible High = 2106 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 2090.75 based upon average range on CD2.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF Price can hold above PH (2097.50), THEN there is a 57% chance of reaching 2106.00 TargetMaster Range Breakout Target. Above this level expands range to 2110. Price strength above this level target 2112.50 – 2115.00.

Scenario 2: Price has reached Cycle Target of 2105.00 in pre-cash session trade. IF price fails to hold above PH (2097.50), THEN expectation will be for pullback into prior days range to absorb recent buying. First significant level for support is located between 2088 – 2090 zone. Violation of this zone calls for deeper downside probe to find responsive buyers which targets 2080 – 2083.50 zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 04.20.15

Thursday’s failure to exceed prior high 2104 level created a Double Top formation which ultimately lead to Friday’s deep sell off when 2092 was violated. “Gap n Go” Open Range had lots of bearish energy which forced price to exceed max average range observed on Cycle Day 3 and hit Initial Balance Target 1 at 2065 handle. Price stabilized and rebounded into settlement.

In overnight and pre-cash open trade, price continues to rebound higher approximately 50% of prior decline. Expectation is for a sell response as price nears 2088 – 2092 zone, as that is where price accelerated downward.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Deep sell down on Friday well beyond range extremes has produced a sharp snap back rally. We would continue to anticipate some type of decline during Cash Session once price has peaked early.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 81%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible High = 2086.50 based upon max average retracement from CD3 low; Possible Low = 2053.50 based upon average violation of CD3 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Price has bounced sharply from deep extremes and has reached the max average range of 22 handles measured from CD3 low. Price will need to hold any pullback to 2078 handle for price to stabilize for bullish case. Significant resistance is anticipated between 2088 – 2092 zone. Should bulls convert this zone, upside target TargetMaster Range Breakout Level 2096.50.

Scenario 2: Having rallied in overnight session to 2088 handle, we will mark this level as “Key Resistance”. Failure to convert this level during cash session calls for pullback to 2078 level (10-Handle Rule). Violation of this level targets deeper pullback to 2075.75, then 2070.75, with 2065.50 TargetMaster Breakdown Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 04.17.15

After successfully testing Cycle Day 1 Low for surety, S&P (ES) rallied throughout the session to test the upper pivot at 2104 handle. Late day rejection with $700M Closing Sell Imbalance continues to hint at distribution by the BIG BOYZ. The past two sessions have seen MOC Sell Imbalances totaling $2.4 Billion…Today is OPEX and early indications suggest a cash open gap down, as price is again testing Cycle Low.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Initial cycle objectives have been met at 2104 handle…Failure to expand beyond this level and rejection has emboldened “Da Bears” to push prices lower in overnight trade. Unless Bulls step in yet again to defend their turf, today could end being another distribution day.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range =  21.50; Possible High = 2113 based upon converting CD2 high; Possible Low = 2083.25 based upon max average range on CD3.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Price is currently testing Cycle Day 1 Low…IF this level can hold, THEN  odds (45%) favor rally attempt targeting 2094.50 3D CPZ. Above this level price will need to clear and convert 2099.50 to expand higher.

Scenario 2: Price rejection at 2104 handle with large MOC Sell Imbalances has taken its toll on bulls resolve to expand range higher. Overnight decline has pushed price down to Max Average Range (21.50) observed on CD3. This level (2083.25) becomes critical “marker” to hold above during pit session. Violation of this level targets further downside 2078.50 – 2076.25 zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO. – Bruce Lee