Trade Strategy 05.29.15

Current 3-Day Cycle Target (2123.50) has been satisfied…So any penetration and conversion of this level expands the cycle which then targets 2133.75. Overnight trade has price within prior day’s range continuing to consolidate between 2110 (key support) and 2123.50 (key resistance). Conversion of either level will determine next directional move.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Odds of 3 Day Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3 Day Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.55; Possible HOD = 2133.75 (35%) based upon penetration of CD2 high; Possible LOD = 2097.25 (65%) based upon violation of CD2 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 21.23.50, THEN there is a 35% chance of extending upwards to 2133.75 TargetMaster Range Breakout Target.

Scenario 2: Failure to clear and convert 2123.50 keeps price within prior days range…Violation of 2109.75 increases odds (65%) of decline initially targeting 2103.00, followed by 2097.25 Violation Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 05.28.15

Battle of the Bull / Bear Robots!  Tuesday the Bears had full control…Wednesday the Bulls regained control. This scenario has been playing out consistently throughout 2015, so until this multi-week range can be broken, more of the same…advantage still remains with Bulls.

The 3-Day Cycle has also been consistent…Yesterday was Cycle Day 1 (CD1) and expectation is (was) for IF price holds above prior low, THEN high expectation is for new Cycle Rally to begin…Current Average Cycle Rally is 22.50 handles which targets 2123.75.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rallt > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2133 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible LOD = 2109.75 based upon average range.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2124.25), THEN there is a 57% chance of pushing higher to 2126.75 – 2129.50 STATX Zone…Above this zone is 2132.75 Penetration Target.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2124.25) keep s price within prior session range for consolidation…Levels to be mindful of for pullback support are 2116 …2112.75 – 2110.00 followed by 2107.25 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 05.27.15

Sellers sprinted out of the gate on the Open Range and never looked back dropping price throughout the session reaching Max Average Range Target of 2098.00. This price action has definitely deflated much of last weeks bullish enthusiasm at contract highs. As stated in prior DTS 05.26.15 “This market compression action is a setup for an explosive directional move…” This places price back deep into lower range of Mid-May…Bulls are on the retreat.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Today’s deep sell-off has exceeded the Average Decline normally seen on Cycle Day 1…2096 – 2098 zone now becomes “Key Support Marker” if any rally attempt is to be staged during this new cycle. Violation and conversion of this zone opens doors for further long liquidation.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Price bounced off the PL (2096.00) late in prior session to stem further losses. IF price can hold above this level on any retest, THEN clear and convert 2104 – 2106 zone, upside retracement targets 2108.50 – 2110.00 UVA. Price would need to capture 2112.00 to reverse much of prior days damage…Keep in mind that any rally attempt that reaches these levels are anticipated to illicit a stronger “sell response”.

Scenario 2: Violation of 2100.00 LVA on any pullback opens door for retest of PL (2096.00) Violation and conversion of this level increase odds of margin selling / long liquidation. Initial downside price targets 2094.50 – 2091.25 STATX Zone. Below this zone measures 2085.25 CD1 Violation Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 05.26.15

Memorial Day Weekend is a time to honor America’s bravest fallen Hero’s. They have given the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom…please consider giving back and showing that their sacrifice was not in vain by donating to Wounded Warrior Project to those that remain and struggle for survival daily.

This holiday is also the unofficial kick-off of summer and with lowering trade volumes as well as trading range, it seems both traders and investors are focusing their attention to anything else but trading…This market compression action is a setup for an explosive directional move just when most have fallen asleep.Though the markets may be uninspiring, it’s best to remain alert if you are trading in this market environment.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)..Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2138.00 based upon penetration of CD2 high; Possible LOD = 2114.50 based upon average range target.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price can clear and convert 2128.00, THEN there is a 35% chance of making high above 2132.50. IF price converts this level THEN odds increase (68%) of expanding to 2134.75 TargetMaster Breakout Target.

Scenario 2: IF price fails to convert 2128.00, and subsequently violates 2118.50 THEN downside targets 2114.50 Average Range Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 05.22.15

Price found this cycle’s “secure low” within the expected zone outlined in previous two Daily Trade Strategy Reports. Here is excerpt: “Violation of PL (2121.25) opens door for deeper downside probe for new secure cycle low. Levels to be mindful of are: 2118.50…2116.25″.

Subsequent rally of the low vaulted price higher during cash session to tic high of day at 2132.00…just 2-tics below our projected high: “Conversion above this zone (2124.50 – 2126.50) increase odds (76%) of pushing higher to 2128.50, then 2132.50…Possible HOD = 2132.50”

Today begins a new cycle but also is pre-holiday Friday, which tends to be very quiet, both in terms of volume and price range, so we are not expecting too much today…That said, bulls remain in control and price is not far from making yet new contract highs, which is the more likely outcome given recent price auction.

Cycle Day 1 (CD1) Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2139.50; Possible LOD = 2114.75.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2132.00), THEN there is a 55% chance of extending to 2133.75 – 2136.25 STATX Zone. Above this zone expands to 2139.50 HOD Target.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2132.00) suggests buyers are satisfied, which could open door to decline…Odds (71%) usually favored on CD1 may be muted ahead of long holiday weekend, but remains a possibility. Downside levels to be mindful of are: 2126.75 – 2125.75 3D CPZ…2123.50 – 2122.50…2119.50 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 05.21.15

Price probed lower in prior session to test CD1 low, which held, then probed higher only to fail at projected upside resistance outlined in prior DTS 05.20.15. Here is excerpt: “IF price can hold above PL (2121.25), THEN clear and convert 2126.50, upside projects 2128.25…2131.25…”  Sellers stepped in very swiftly to reject the higher price probe and has now pushed price lower in overnight trade to test the 2118 – 2116 zone outlined as well in prior report…Here is excerpt: “Violation of PL (2121.25) opens door for deeper downside probe for new secure cycle low. Levels to be mindful of are: 2118.50…2116.25”.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Odds of 3D Cyle Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Cycle Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2132.50; Possible LOD = 2114.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price can clear and convert PL (2119.25), THEN there are even odds of returning back to 2124.50  – 2126.50 zone. Conversion above this zone increase odds (76%) of pushing higher to 2128.50, then 2132.50 TargetMaster Range Breakout Target.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PL (2119.25) and subsequent violation of 2115.00 opens door for deeper downside decline initially targeting 2113.00, followed by 2109.25 – 2107.50 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 05.20.15

Perfect Cycle Day 1 (CD1) unfolded yesterday as price auctioned lower in search of new low at 2121.25. Price has held above this level in overnight trade, so if this level is indeed the new “secure low”, then it should not be violated during cash trade session. The current range is between 2122.00 – 2126.50…breakout of either level will determine continuation of bull pattern or reversal lower.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2); Odds of Rally . 10 = 85%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Average Cycle Rally = 2143.50…Possible HOD = 2143.50; Possible LOD = 2111.50 based upon average violation of CD1 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price can hold above PL (2121.25), THEN clear and convert 2126.50, upside projects 2128.25…2131.25, then PH (2134.00). IF price converts prior high, THEN upside expansion targets 2135.25 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level followed by 2141 – 2143.50 Cycle Target.

Scenario 2: Violation of PL (2121.25) opens door for deeper downside probe for new secure cycle low. Levels to be mindful of are: 2118.50…2116.25, followed by 2112.25 TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

 

Trade Strategy 05.19.15

Bullish 3-Day Cycle momentum continues unchallenged by “da bears” as price has reached STATX target zone outlined in prior Daily Trade Strategy 05.18.15 Here is excerpt of Scenario 1: “IF price clears and converts PH (2122.75), THEN upside expansion targets 2124.50, 2128.25, followed by 2130.75 – 2134.00 STATX Zone.”

Today begins a new 3-Day Cycle…Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Average Decline = 21.00; Possible HOD = 2134.75 based upon average penetration; Possible LOD = 2113.00 based upon average decline.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: Price has exceeded PH (2128.75) and has reached target zone (2130.75 – 2132.75). IF price can stay above prior high, THEN bulls remain in control with penetration target 2134.75, then 2140.00 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: Violation of PH (2128.75) opens door for deeper pullback into prior days range. Lower levels to be mindful of for support are: 2124.50 – 2122.50 – 2120.50 Central Pivot Zone. Below this zone targets 2116.75 – 2114.50 3D CPZ with average cycle target 2113.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 05.18.15

S&P e-mini (ES) continues to quietly consolidate last weeks gains and new contract high within a 10 handle range between 2112 – 2122. We will label these levels as “key markers” for either bullish upside continuation or bearish downside reversal. Current trend is up so benefit the bulls. Average 3-Day Cycle Rally target 2115.50 has been achieved, so bulls definitely need follow through and bears need an auction failure.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…As stated, cycle target (2115.50) has been achieved, so decline could begin at any time to probe for new secure low. If the cycle remains strong, then any decline would be anticipated to be shallow…Deeper decline would shift near-term control to bear camp.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2122.25 based upon failure to convert CD2 high; Possible LOD = 2105.00 based upon average range on CD3.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2122.75), THEN upside expansion targets 2124.50, 2128.25, followed by 2130.75 – 2134.00 STATX Zone.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2122.75) and subsequent violation of 2112.25 “key marker” opens door to deeper pullback targeting 2110.00 — 2107.50 3D CPZ. Below this zone 2105.75 – 2103.50 TargetMaster/STATX Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 05.15.15

In Thursday’s DTS 05.14.15 we stated “Large market on close sell imbalance ($900M) was easily absorbed as price has held above prior low (2091.50) in overnight trade…Not only held, but has rallied higher testing prior high (2106.50). This is indeed bullish price action and barring any external event, expectation is now to push aggressively higher to challenge contract highs.”

In overnight trade ES futures are trading at 2122 handle…New Contract High…Continued bullish momentum forcing apparent short covering has propelled price higher above 3-Day Cycle Target and very near Penetration Target of 2125.50.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2125.50 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible LOD = 2107.50 based upon average decline on CD2

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

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Today’s Hypotheses: June (M) Contract

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (2118.25), THEN upside projection is 2125.50 Penetration Level. Above this level expands to 2128.25, then 2133.75 TargetMaster Range Breakout Level.

Scenario 2: IF price violates 2114.00 level which is marked as first support, THEN deeper decline can unfold targeting 2109.25…2105.25. Key Support is marked at 2101.50 – 2098.00 3D CPZ and TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee