Trade Strategy 08.31.15

 

Trading

Market’s to a break (as I did) this past Friday, following a wild week of wide range, highly volatile trading. Traders and investors alike decided to spend some well deserved time away from the screens.

Price has now retraced better part of half (50%) of decline from highs…Bulls will need a follow-through week above 1998 SPOT into the long Labor Day Holiday to stem further losses. Bears will obviously be hunting for a downside break of 1950 SPOT.

Friday’s trade was as expected…quiet narrow range consolidation. Some weakness in overnight trade has pushed price down to 1963, which is top of 3D CPZ. We will use that price as initial support marker for today’s trade.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has exceeded Cycle Target, so price can trade either way today with NEUTRAL SPILL.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75, Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1992.00, Possible LOD = 1954.75.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price stays above 1963 SPOT, THEN further upside consolidation is expected with retest of 1982.00 SPOT. IF price can clear and convert this level and subsequently convert 1992.75, THEN upside can expand targeting 1998.00.

Scenario 2: Violation of 1963 SPOT opens door for decline initially targeting 1954.75 followed by 1946.50. Any violation of this level increases odds of expanded downside movement targeting 1934 Cycle Day 1 Low.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 08.28.15

Markets

After some of the most turbulent market days in recent memory, the weekend can’t come soon enough for many investors. Panicked selling on Monday and Tuesday gave way to a rush to buy on Wednesday and Thursday. However, there could be a sting in the tail for Friday – U.S. stock futures are signaling all three main indexes will open about 0.7% lower and European markets were weaker in morning trade.

Today’s Economic Calendar

Jackson Hole Symposium
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment

Trading

Relief Rally continued higher in Thursday’s Session reaching and slightly exceeding 3 Day Cycle Target 1982.00. Sharp but brief sell off during the afternoon caught traders off-guard as some anal-ist (analyst) warned of a “violent sell off”. Where the hell has he been this past week? Perhaps in the Hampton’s or Figi Islands…Either way, investors/traders have lost all respect for analyst’s predictions…Only the Algo’s seem to pay attention…Their binary minds will eventually develop and figure it out that it’s all “fugazzi”.

Overnight trade is rather docile…perhaps traders are “Fed-up” and have left early for the Hampton’s? Your’s truly will also be cutting-out early on this Friday, fortunately I will not be rubbing elbows with Hampton-ites. Just some well needed R&R after a wild trading week. Us mere mortals need to re-energize…Let the Algo’s keep on going…and going…and going just like the EverReady Bunny.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Expectation is for some “back n fill” (whatever that means now) following wild week of trade. The “normal numbers” are outlined below:

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2002.00; Possible LOD = 1925.00.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price holds above 1960, THEN initial upside targets 1971, followed by 1982. Strength above this level targets 2002 Cycle Penetration Level.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 1960 opens door for lower probe targeting 1943 – 1940  STATX Zone…Below this zone is 1925 3D Pivot.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

 

 

 

Trade Strategy 08.27.15

Markets

Shares across the globe are skyrocketing after Wall Street cracked a six-day losing streak with its best rally in nearly four years. With momentum turning to the upside, investors seem to be covering their positions, while long-term bulls snap up perceived bargains. The rebound is also being attributed to falling expectations the Fed will soon raise interest rates. On Wednesday, NY Fed President William Dudley said a September hike seemed “less compelling” given recent global economic uncertainty.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 GDP Q2
8:30 Corporate Profits
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

Trading

Our viewpoint yesterday was that of price stabilization and potential relief rally with quote:“Odds (83%) favor a strong rally attempt to clear through 1910 handle up to 1950 SPOT.”  Strong buy response emerged at the 1880.00 handle as sellers were absorbed as we alerted our Members in live trading room of developing bullish shift…Excerpt below:

[ Wed Aug 26 2015 13:07:09] David Dube: Momentum has Shifted…Bullish

 

Price continued rally…cleared and converted 1910 KEY SPOT…Projections were for price to reach 1930, then 1950 handles respectively, both which were achieved.

Overnight trade price extended higher to 1960 STATX Level and is currently trading 10 handles off highs at 1950 (8:00 am ET). Volatility is expected to remain high with wide price swings intra-day, so keep your helmets and chin straps tightly fastened.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1982 Cycle Rally; Possible LOD 1900.00 3 Day Central Pivot.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price can find responsive buyers on pullback to 1930 handle, THEN upside targets retest of overnight high zone between 1960 – 1964. Above this zone measures 1982 Cycle Rally Target.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 1930 handle deepens pullback targeting 1925 – 1910 Central Pivot Zone…Stronger buy response is anticipated near to 1900 SPOT.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

 

Trade Strategy 08.26.15

Markets

U.S. stock index futures are heading sharply higher after a failed attempt to rally from the Dow’s worst 3-day point decline in history and the loss of $900B in the S&P 500 over the last two sessions. Traders keep finding it difficult to know where to turn, with global indices flipping wildly between gains and losses. Wednesday’s markets are expected to take their cue from the action in China again, but there will also be plenty of speculation about the Fed and when it might raise rates. U.S. Futures: Dow +1.3%; S&P 500 +1.3%; Nasdaq +1.2%

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Durable Goods
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction

Trading

“The Thrill of Victory…and the Agony of Defeat” 

Sharp rally early in the Session gave traders hope that the worst was over, only to have those hopes and dreams (think nightmares) dashed away as late Session Market on Close (MOC) Sell Imbalance of $3.2 Billion thrashed any “relief rally”. In overnight trade price found buy response at 1850 handle and is currently higher by 60 handles to 1910.00. We made special note of the 1910 handle in prior DTS Reports as this level remains a KEY SPOT for bulls to convert. IF converted, THEN initial upside measures 1930 followed by 1950 respectively.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…We will be looking for markets to find some stabilization today, though price volatility should remain very high. Odds (83%) favor a strong rally attempt to clear through 1910 handle up to 1950 SPOT.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price can hold above 1895.00 during cash session and convert 1910 SPOT, THEN upside target 1923.75 3D CPZ. Above this level measures 1940 – 1950 zone.

Scenario 2: Initial resistance is marked between 1923 – 1933 zone. Failure to clear and convert this zone and subsequent violation of 1895 handle keeps sellers in control with possible retest of 1850 handle.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 08.25.15

Markets

Global markets look to regain their footing after a harsh start to the week. Leading Asian markets fell again with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a 7.6% loss and the Nikkei down 4.0%, while other key Asian markets closed with milder losses and Hong Kong ended up in positive territory. European markets are broadly higher with the Stoxx Europe 600 up a solid 3.1%, led by the first rise in the FTSE 100 in 11 sessions. Oil is also trying to stage a comeback with WTI crude retaking the $39 level. Economists expect global supply will start drying up next quarter if oil stays below the $40 level.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
10:00 New Home Sales
1:00 PM Results of $26B, 2-Year Note Auction

Trading

S&P emini opened limit down 1870.00 and continued to fall to second limit down 1831.00 (yes, that is not a typo) before rallying 120 handles, again reversing down. Multiple intra-day swings saw price whip up and down 10 – 20 handles in “seconds” as computerized algos made even the most seasoned trading veteran watch in total amazement in the breathtaking price swings. It was truly a Wild West classic version “digital-binary” shootout.

Overnight Trade has price range at 76.75 handles as price tested the lower edge of yesterday range to find buy response at 1875.00 which we will mark as KEY SUPPORT. Upside Resistance is marked at 1950.00.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…We will be looking for markets to find some stabilization today, though price volatility should remain very high. Odds (83%) favor a strong rally attempt to clear through yesterday’s high (1950.75)…Any pullback in price is anticipated to find buy response between 1888.00 – 1912 zone.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PH (1950.75), THEN initial upside targets 1964 – 1982.50 Three Day Central Pivot Zone. Above this zone price can vault to 2050.00 SPOT.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (1950.75) keeps price within prior day’s range…Initial support is marked at 1898.00 SPOT, followed by 1888.75 – 1879.50, with KEY SUPPORT marked at 1875.00 SPOT.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 08.24.15

Markets

World stock markets fell sharply again as panic selling in China has picked right back up to start the week. China’s stock markets have now wiped out the gains built up during the year. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 8.5% after the lack of an official policy move from Beijing increased the level of anxiety. Many index futures contracts in China fell by their 10% limit in an indication more selling could unwind. Europe took its cues from Asia and is lower across the board. Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures point lower by close to 2%.

Oil prices plunged to 6.5-year lows as concerns over demand from China rippled across energy markets. Brent crude is below the $45 per barrel level, while WTI crude is back into the $30s. Many industry watchers think prices will fall even further as OPEC producers continue to pour out more oil than needed. Crude futures -3.6% to $38.98/bb.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Trading

Major Stock Indexes are gearing up (or is that down) for a lower cash & futures opening today continuing where they finished last week. The normal 3 Day Trading Cycle has clearly been disrupted, so price will need to stabilize and find a natural level where buyers and sellers can agree on…Currently margins calls are dominating the trading landscape as forced selling will need to run is course before a final trade-able low is found

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1) and it’s NORMAL SPILL DOWN (That seems so cliche today) to probe for a secure low…The next Major Zone of potential Buy Response is fairly wide between 1910.00 – 1988.00. Price will need to find support then must convert 1940.00 to increase odds of recapturing prior day’s broken low 1968.00.

We’ll be looking for some type of “relief rally” today once the selling is finished…STAY DISCIPLINED and KEEP COOL HEAD.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price will need to find a solid buy response above 1910.00 during cash session and then clear and convert 1940 handle to increase odds of a “relief rally.” Upside objective is to at least get back above PL (1968.00), then vault to 1988.00 Daily Pivot.

Scenario 2: Margin selling will add to early price pressure…Wide potential zone of support between 1910.00 – 1988.00…IF price cannot recover back above PL (1968.00), THEN selling may continue unabated.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 08.21.15

Economy

World stocks are heading for their worst week of the year after data showed Chinese factory activity shrinking at the fastest pace since 2009. Marking the fifth straight month of contraction, the flash Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.1 in August, compared to a final reading of 47.8 in July. More than $500B was erased from the S&P 500 yesterday, while the Dow plummeted below 17,000 for the first time since October.

Today’s Economic Calendar

9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash

Trading

Yesterday’s sell down was an ABERRANT occurrence to the NORMAL SPILL UP for Cycle Day 2, as concerns of worldwide economic slowdown affected every market sector. Recognition of the early weakness and warning for potential TREND DOWN DAY was broadcast to PTG Members in the Live Trading Room:

[ Thu Aug 20 2015 09:47:46 ] David Dube: ORRMP = 2057.75

[ Thu Aug 20 2015 09:47:52 ] David Dube: Initial Bull/Bear Line

[ Thu Aug 20 2015 09:54:58 ] David Dube: Larger Trend remains DOWN and this is unfolding as TREND DAY DOWN as well.

[ Thu Aug 20 2015 10:07:51 ] David Dube: DO NOT TRY CATCHING FALLING KNIVES

It was again reiterated early afternoon session:

[ Thu Aug 20 2015 13:12:18 ] David Dube: DO NOT TRY CATCHING FALLING KNIVES

[ Thu Aug 20 2015 15:01:00  ] David Dube: Early MOC Indication SELL IMB -543M

The actual MOC Sell Imbalance was $1.8 Billion for Sale as Large Institutions were in liquidation mode all session as price closed on lows.

In overnight trade price has hit 2013.00 CD3 Violation Target with small bounce…

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3) Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible HOD = 2051.25; Possible LOD = 2010.00.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price can hold above 2013 and clear and convert PL 2024.75, THEN odds (82%) favor a rally attempt of greater than 10 handles initially targeting 2034.75…Above this level targets 2042.50 Central Pivot, with projected HOD 2051.25.

Scenario 2: Price closed on lows with additional weakness in overnight session…IF price fails to convert PL (2024.75) THEN Bears remains in control with potential for additional long liquidation. Extreme STATX Low is marked at 2010.00.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 08.20.15

Economy

Oil prices are continuing to collapse, and the bottom remains elusive because not one of the world’s largest producers is showing any signs of blinking. WTI crude slumped over 4% on Wednesday on data showing an unexpected U.S. supply build of 2.6M barrels, sending prices to levels not seen since early 2009. Oil futures now look set to fall into the $30s per barrel, a low range many analysts did not see coming. Crude futures -1.5% to $40.21/bbl.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 Philly Fed Business Outlook
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 Money Supply
4:30 Fed Balance Sheet

Trading

S&P e-mini continues it’s selling slide which began Tuesday after peaking at 2103.50 SPOT during last Cycle. Price is now down approximately 50 handles from high to hit lower range extreme 2056 handle.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…There is high odds (95%) chance of making high above 2066.50 up to 2087.50 with NORMAL SPILL UP today. Projected LOD = 2053.25.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2087.50 based upon Average Cycle Rally; Possible LOD = 2053.25 based upon average Violation on CD2.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Pre-Cash open price is trading near 2056 handle…Odds (83%) favor rally greater than 10 handles which would place price back above prior low (2066.50). IF price can clear and convert this level, THEN upside targets 2071.50 and 2075.50 SPOTs.

Scenario 2: Price trading near projected low of day (2053.50) and Violation Target…Should price fail to illicit a strong buy response from this level and subsequent break down, long liquidation would target 2046.50 SPOT.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

Trade Strategy 08.19.15

Economy

The Fed is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate as soon as its next meeting in September, but some officials are still harboring misgivings. An account of the central bank’s most recent get-together, which will be published at 2 p.m. ET today, is likely to describe the extent of those concerns. Keep in mind that the minutes are released with a three-week lag, so they don’t capture precisely how the landscape has changed since July. China’s currency devaluation and a continued slide in oil prices seem to weigh against raising rates, while solid hiring last month supports the case for moving.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Consumer Price Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM FOMC minutes

Trading

Yesterday’s trade pretty much unfolded as expected with NEUTRAL SPILL consolidation day, following strong price performance capping off a perfect Three-Day Cycle sequence. In overnight trade price has pulled down within the 3 Day Central Pivot Zone 2086 – 2084.25 outlined in prior Daily Trade Strategy 08.18.15. The current overnight low is 2084.00…just 1 tic from our projected low and within Margin of Error (MOE).

Today begins a new Cycle with a NORMAL SPILL DOWN to probe for a new secure low. Current price has traded down slightly greater than 10 handles from overnight high (Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%).

Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.00; Possible HOD = 2108; Possible LOD = 2082.25 based upon average decline on CD1.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has pulled back to 2084.00 KEY SUPPORT…IF price can hold above and convert PL (2090.25), THEN upside projects 2095.50 SPOT. Strength above this level targets 2098.00, then 2103.50 SPOTs.

Scenario 2: Violation of 2084.00 KEY SUPPORT projects 2082.00 down to 2079.75 CD1 Violation Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

Trade Strategy 08.18.15

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Housing Starts
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales

Trading

Textbook Three-Day Cycle unfolding as price tested CD1 Low on CD2, then rallied to reach Average Cycle Target (2096.00) in prior session. In overnight trade price has continued upside price momentum to reach Cycle Penetration Target (2102.50) and KEY SPOT 2103.50 capping the move. Initial decline has begun which initially targets 2091.50 SPOT.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Cycle Targets have been achieved and exceeded to Penetration Level. Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Rneg = 21.50. Possible HOD = 2103.50; Possible LOD = 2075.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: IF price can maintain bid above PH (2100.50), THEN initial upside targets 2103.50 SPOT. Strength above this level measures 2108.00 SPOT.

Scenario 2: Failure to hold bid above PH (2100.50) increase odds (63%) of initial decline of 10 handles targeting 2093.50. Violation of this level measures 2086.00 – 2084.25 Three Day Central Pivot Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee