Despite building expectations for more stimulus, Japan’s central bank has kept monetary policy on hold, maintaining its annual asset purchases at ¥80T. The decision comes amid declines in output and a slowdown in consumer prices that has threatened Japan with a return to deflation – the BOJ’s nemesis for much of the past two decades. Central bank governor Hiroki Kuroda has repeatedly insisted the economy is in the middle of a “moderate recovery,” and has contended that the BOJ has done everything it can do to boost growth.
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 Employment Cost Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
Shallow decline in prior Session (CD1) setup a continuation rally during overnight trade to reach 2094.50 CD2 Penetration Target. Price has since reversed 10 handles and is currently trading 2084 as of this writing. I had mentioned in trading room late yesterday that more upside was expected:
[ Thu Oct 29 2015 15:42:23 ] David Dube: PRICE CLOSING IN UPPER QUADRANT OF RANGE
[ Thu Oct 29 2015 15:42:32 ] David Dube: MORE UPSIDE EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NEUTRAL SPILL UP..Odds of Rally > 20 1= 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 2094.50 (CD2 Penetration); Possible LOD = 2072.00 (Average Range)
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: Price has rallied during overnight to reach 2094.50 CD2 Penetration Level and has since reversed back to 2086.50 (PH)…Price will need to hold at or above this level for continued upside potential during cash session.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of PH (2086.50) to downside opens door to deeper move lower to probe for responsive buyers and continue to consolidate recent gains. Levels to be mindful of are: 2083.50; 2081.50; 2078.50; 2073.00.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS