The euro is closing out November with a major monthly decline as economists unanimously forecast the ECB will unveil additional stimulus this week. The currency has weakened 3.8% this month, its biggest loss since a 4.2% decline in March, when the central bank embarked on a €1.1T asset-purchase program. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hike interest rates at its mid-December policy meeting, sending up the dollar index to 100.23, its highest level since mid-March. Euro -0.2% to 1.0568.(Source: Seeking Alpha)
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
3:00 PM Farm Prices
S&P emini achieved Average Cycle Target (2096.50) during the shortened holiday session. Friday’s session was classic Cycle Day 1 (CD1) as price probed lower to find a new secure low at 2082.00 handle.
In overnight trade price tested cycle support and has since begun to rally pre-cash session rising to 2094.25. There is additional room to continue the current upswing which initially targets 2098.25.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Odds of Rally > 10 = 84%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range= 22.75; Possible HOD = 2104.50; Possible LOD = 2073.25
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2091.00, THEN initial upside targets PH (2096.00)…Conversion of this level pushes 2098.25 = 2101 zone. Above this zone measures 2104.50 Average Cycle Rally Target.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PH (2096.00) keeps price within recent holiday range…Pullbacks are expected to find ample responsive buyers above CD1 Low of 2081.50.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS