Almost $3.2T has been wiped off global stocks since the start of 2016, driven by renewed jitters over China’s economy and a slump in energy prices, pushing all major U.S. indexes into correction or bear market territory. Asian markets (except for China) and European bourses are keeping up the trend today after a bruising session on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 drop 2.5% and the Nasdaq tank 3.4%. Despite looking for a comeback earlier, U.S. futures have also dipped into the sea of red.
In Asia, Japan -2.7% to 17241. Hong Kong -0.6% to 19817. China +2% to 3008. India -0.3% to 24773.
In Europe, at midday, London -2%. Paris -3%. Frankfurt -3%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.2%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.4%. Crude +1% to $30.77. Gold +0.5% to $1092.30.
Ten-year Treasury Yield flat at 2.06%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
8:15 Fed’s Bullard:U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 Import/Export Prices
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
1:00 PM Results of $13B, 30-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Price stalled and reversed within upper STATX Zone (1946.00 – 1941.25) which began the decline, initially viewed as a buyable pullback to consolidate recent gains. Failing to hold key 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (1922.50 – 1918.00) increased selling pressure. Final violation of 1908.50 SPOT sealed the deal for Bears as long liquidation accelerated into the final bell. All told minus 68.50 handle decline.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…SPILL UP…Though price closed very weak, odds (83%) do favor rallying back to CD1 Low (1899.00) to recover cycle dynamics…3 Day ATR has exploded to 45.33 handles…HOD Projection = 1908.50; LOD Projection = 1852.42
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: March 2016 (H) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds above 1881.00 SPOT, THEN initial upside objective is to recapture CD1 Low (1899.00). Above this level targets 1908.50 – 1914.25 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. Cycle Target 1928.00 is a tall order.
Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 1881.00 SPOT, THEN additional selling may unfold to retest ONL (1874.50)…Further violation of this level targets 1868.25 – 1860.25 Lower STATX Zone, with 1852.42 LOD Range Projection.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS