Trade Strategy 10.9.19

Markets

U.S. stock index futures rise as investors weigh the latest developments in the U.S.-China trade and foreign policy disputes. Reuters reports that China is planning visa restrictions for U.S. nationals with ties to anti-China groups. The Nasdaq is up 0.9%, the S&P gains 0.8% and the Dow increases 0.7%. The 10-year Treasury ticks up, pushing yield up 1 basis point to 1.54%. Crude oil slips 0.5% to $52.87 per barrel. Gold rises 0.3% to $1,508.40 per ounce.

In Asia, Japan -0.61%. Hong Kong -0.81%. China +0.39%. India +1.66%.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.40%. Paris +0.78%. Frankfurt +1.11%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow +0.67%. S&P +0.76%. Nasdaq +0.86%. Crude +0.48% to $52.87. Gold +0.30% to $1,508.40. Bitcoin +0.11% to $8,213.
Ten-year Treasury Yield +1.4 bps to 1.553%.

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Economic Calendar

10:00Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
10:00Wholesale Trade
10:30EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:00Jerome Powell Speech
11:00Fed’s George Speech
1:00 PMResults of $24B, 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PMFOMC minutes

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2903.50 (FULFILLED). Average Range for CD1 is 40.75 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 20 = 44%

3 Day Cycle Lesson: This cycle’s decline occurred on Cycle Day 3 (yesterday) and the Average Decline Objective (2903.50) was fulfilled in prior session. As such, trade expectation shifts to Long Bias and this cycle’s rally with upside target range projections taken from daily spreadsheet. Overnight trade price has indeed rallied back to 3 Day Central Pivot Zone (2910 – 2913) and 10 day ATR Range (2929.50).

CD1 Range High = 2931.00       CD1 Range Low = 2910.00         CD1 Range Avg = 43.00

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2917, THEN initial upside targets 2927 – 2931 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2917, THEN initial downside targets 2910 – 2903 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September 2019 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2929.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2893.50; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2928.50; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2938.00; 10 Day Average True Range 41.15; VIX: 19.00

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7628.75 (FULFILLED).  Average Range for CD1 is 131.50 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 75% Odds of decline > 25 = 66%

CD1 Range High =7740.50           CD1 Range Low = 7583.00          CD1 Range Avg = 136.00

Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7650, THEN initial upside targets 7700 – 7712 zone.

Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7650, THEN initial downside targets 7613 – 7594 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September 2019 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7729.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7594.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7712.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7772.75; 10 Day Average True Range: 125.00 VIX: 19.00

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN