Trade Strategy 4.1.20

Markets

Risk-off sentiment is seeping into the markets once again, with traders deciding their next moves as the second quarter kicks off. S&P 500 futures are down 3% and Dow futures are off more than 600 points, following a warning from President Trump that the coming weeks would be “very painful” and White House projections of 100K-240K U.S. deaths from COVID-19. The Dow already recorded its worst quarter since 1987 in Q1, while the S&P 500 logged its worst quarter on record, as the coronavirus pandemic caused a nationwide shutdown of the economy.

Decline was seen overnight as Dow futures slid 762 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell 3.5% respectively.

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

Economic Calendar https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

8:15 ADP Jobs Report
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

Markets are currently trading in negative territory pre-RTH

We’ll keep the “High Surf Warning” posted for the foreseeable future.

S&P 500

Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): As this day is the official “end of cycle”. The expected action of the “BIG BOYZ” is to complete their selling of long contracts to the “johnnie-come-late” buyers and to establish new short positions, in anticipation on the next cycle decline. End of Month/Quarter coincided with a “textbook” CD3 as outlined above, with price selling off into the close.

Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Objective for this cycle day is to “probe for a new secure low” from which to begin the next cycle’s rally. It is also highly probable that “Smart Money” had previously established short positions on CD3 after exiting their long positions at the end of the previous cycle.

Forcing a “violation” of previous day’s (CD3) Low (2555.75) would accelerate selling momentum carried over from the previous session which increases smart-money short position profitability as price probes lower to projected CD1 Average Range Decline Target (2533.45). Once reached, open short positions would be expected to begin covering from those selling out longs (at a loss), are “flushed-out”, creating an “excess” or “extreme” cycle low from which “Smart Money” begins to establish new long positions.

Average Decline for CD1 (102.30) as measured from CD3 High (2635.75) projects “Possible LOW” 2533.45 (Exceeded) Violation Low measures 2489 (Fulfilled)

P-VA High = 2613       P-VA Low = 2574         P-POC = 2595

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 2490, THEN initial upside estimate targets 2510 – 2520 zone

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 2490, THEN initial downside estimate targets 2470 – 2450 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2020 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2567.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2470.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2565.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2534.00; 10 Day Average True Range 138.00; VIX: 60.00

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Price has violated Cycle Day 1 Low (7747.50) and has declined reaching 7562 – 7522 CD1 Statistical Extreme Zone during GLOBEX Session.

P-VA High = 7920           P-VA Low = 7795          P-POC = 7868

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 7575, THEN initial upside estimate targets 7650 – 7670 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 7575, THEN initial downside estimate targets 7525 – 7485 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2020 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7818.00; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7483.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7740.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7694.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 400; VIX: 60.00

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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