Trade Strategy 4.22.20

Markets

S&P 500 futures climbed 1.5% overnight, regaining some poise after two days of steep losses, as traders came to terms with the effects of this week’s spectacular collapse in oil prices. Also boosting sentiment was a fresh $484B relief package for small businesses.

Source: Seeking Alpha https://seekingalpha.com/

US Futures Markets are set for +1.5% gain for the opening bell.

Source: https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-cfds

Economic Calendar

9:00 FHFA House Price Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

***IMPORTANT >>> IF preset $risk parameters have been exceeded in your individual trade plan, THEN simply stand-aside or trade in simulation-mode until trade risk can properly be managed.

We’ll keep the “HIGH SURF WARNING FLAG” posted as volatility remains elevated, with VIX 38 and ATR (3) 90 handles.

S&P 500

Tuesday’s Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): This Cycle’s decline continued into CD2 with a violation of CD1 Low (2804.25). Price pushed lower throughout the session fulfilling CD2 Violation Target Level (2734.25), 70 handles from prior low.

Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Having closed low within the range, we have two scenarios: 1.) Violation of CD2 Low (2717.25), extending targeting CD3 Violation Level (2704.50). 2.) Price holds CD2 Low (2717.25), pushing higher on recovery rally targeting 2760 – 2775 zone.

Cycle’s Primary Goal is to fully recover CD1 Low (2804.25) for a Positive 3 Day Rally. Unsuccessful attempt will trigger a “failed-cycle” hinting at further weakness in the coming days.

PVA High Edge = 2760       PVA Low Edge = 2720         Prior POC = 2730

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 2750, THEN initial upside estimate targets 2760 – 2775 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 2750, THEN initial downside estimate targets 2720 – 2705 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2020 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2798; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2698; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2817; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2804.25; 10 Day Average True Range  85; VIX: 44

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price has rallied from prior close during overnight trade recovering three-fourths of prior value area range. Primary goal for bulls is to fully recover CD1 Low (8687) to avert a “failed” Cycle Statistic.

PVA High Edge = 8590           PVA Low Edge = 8345         Prior POC = 8388

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls hold bid above 8525, THEN initial upside estimate targets 8565 – 8590 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears hold offer below 8525, THEN initial downside estimate targets 8500 – 8475 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2020 (M) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 8673; LOD ATR Range Projection: 8295; 3 Day Central Pivot: 8695; 3 Day Cycle Target: 8687; 10 Day Average True Range: 259; VIX: 44

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN


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