U.S. stock index futures are indicating a lower open after being closed yesterday for July 4. The “risk-off” sentiment follows a strong rally last week that saw major indexes turn positive for 2016. Reasons for the drop are stemming from uncertainty in the U.K.: The prime minister vote, Brexit timing, bank capital requirements, a new corporate tax rate, trimmed growth forecasts and the future of the European Union (see all below).
In Asia, Japan -0.7% to 15669. Hong Kong -1.5% to 20750. China +0.6% to 3006. India -0.4% to 27167.
In Europe, at midday, London +0.6%. Paris -1.1%. Frankfurt -1.4%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.5%. S&P -0.6%. Nasdaq -0.6%. Crude -2.6% to $47.72. Gold +0.6% to $1347.60.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -8 bps to 1.38%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Price pushed slightly higher on the shortened holiday trade session to complete the previous cycle. In overnight trade successfully tested 2082 key support and has bounced back to 2086 handle.
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Price is currently in a down swing probing for new secure low from which to stage next rally attempt. Key Support is marked at 2082 handle. Price will need to clear and convert 2094 CD1 Low to shift the down swing.
Range Projections and Key Levels: Sept (U) Contract
HOD Range Projection: 2112.00; LOD Range Projection: 2069.00; CD2 Max Penetration Level: 2113.00; CD2 Max Violation Level: 2082.50; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2094.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2090.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2117.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 30.52
**Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today’s Hypotheses: September (U) Contract
*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.
Scenario 1: IF price holds at or above 2082 handle, THEN initial objective for bulls will be to convert 2088.25 – 2090 zone to upper support. Should this occur secondary objective is to convert 2094 CD1 Low. This would open door for higher prices.
Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 2082 handle would be a sign of weakness, potentially opening door for deeper decline during this cycle. Next zone below is 2078 – 2076 for potential renewed buy response. Third zone layered between 2073.50 – 2069.00.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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