Trade Strategy 8.10.18

Markets
 
In Asia, Japan -1.3%. Hong Kong -0.8%. China flat. India -0.4%
In Europe, at midday, London -0.7%. Paris -1.1%. Frankfurt -1.6%
Futures at 6:20, Dow -0.4%. S&P -0.4%. Nasdaq -0.5%. Crude +0.2% to $66.91. Gold -0.1% to $1218.20. Bitcoin -2.6% to $6368. 
Ten-year Treasury Yield -3 bps to 2.9%
 
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
 
Economic Calendar

8:30 Consumer Price Index
1:00 PM Baker-Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

S&P 500

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 2839.00 (fulfilled in overnight trade). Average Range for CD1 is 24.50 handles. Odds of decline > 10 handles = 72% Odds of decline > 20 = 42%

Market Bias: Bearish

CD1 Range High = 2861.00         CD1 Range Low = 2828.50         CD1 Range Avg = 24.50 

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 2853, THEN upside target 2863.00.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 2853, THEN downside objective measures 2839.00 CD1 Average Decline. ATR Range Low measures 2836 handle.

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 2853.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2836.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2856.25; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2867.00; 10 Day Average True Range 16.50; VIX: 11.99

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Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Normal is for a decline measuring 7414.00. Average Range for CD1 is 89.50 handles. Odds of decline > 20 handles = 73% Odds of decline > 25 = 64%

Market Bias: Bearish

CD1 Range High = 7475.00          CD1 Range Low = 7422.00          CD1 Range Avg = 89.50

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts 7469.50, THEN upside target 7495.75.

Scenario 2: IF price violates and converts 7469.50, THEN downside objective measures 7414.00 CD1 Average Decline. ATR Range Low measures 7401 handle.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) September (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 7495.75; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7401.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7471.75; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7487.25; 10 Day Average True Range: 71.50; VIX: 11.99

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Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN