Today marks end of quarter (and 1/2 year). so many money managers will be tweaking their portfolios to what is known as “window dressing”. Overall end of quarter portfolio tweaking doesn’t contribute much to investor returns, but can be meaningful to the manager that gets paid on short-term “basis point” performance, so trying to squeeze every last tick is the game.
Quiet overnight trade as 1605 marking initial pivot support and prior day high at 1614.25 resistance. Penetration of PDH targets 1622 – 27 zone. Violation of GBX pivot suggests retrace down to 1595 – 1600 zone. Any deeper pullback suggests 1585 – 88 zone.
I am disciplined. I behave in a way to reach my goals. I do what I intend to do. I have the intent to win through right actions. I will be patient for patterns to emerge and mature. I am decisive. I decide easily and act promptly. I act in the right way and right on time. When there is nothing to be done, I will wait.
Though the Markets have enjoyed a “relief rally” of approximately 50 handles from our “Prime Turn Alert” on 6/24 https://twitter.com/TradePilotPro/status/349230432002396160/photo/1 further advances should encounter increasing headwinds.
Price is half-way back from its fall and there is a gap to fill from 6/20…That gap is a “black-hole” which beckons to be filled with volume…It will be interesting to see if and when it can get filled.
Key level to consider today is 1595 which was resistance yesterday until price broke through…now 1595 becomes first key support point to test on any significant pullback. IF price can stay above PDH at 1601.25 (1604 pre-mkt), THEN upper targets can extend to 1607 – 09. Reversal back through 1601.25 calls for retest of key support…Violation of that level breaks down to 1590 – 92 zone.
I am courageous and I always act, even in the face of uncertainty and possible loss. Do not say, no fear. Feel the fear and act anyway. I may be frightened, but I still saddle up. I am not reckless. I act promptly in accordance with my methodology. I respect my calculations. I have a healthy respect and I balance that respect with my courage. I am an explorer. I am on a hero’s journey.
Quick review of yesterday’s trade strategy had traders looking for longs on pullback to 1567 – 69 zone…Actual support pivot was established at 1570…Pivot longs were initiated at 1573…The potential for relief rally was strong as price action pushed higher to achieve daily targets into 1582-86 zone…Here is excerpt from strategy…“As long as any further pullbacks can hold 1567 – 69 zone, price has potential for relief rally back to 1582 – 86 zone.”
In overnight trade price found support at Daily and 3D Central Pivot Zone (CPZ) at 1573.00…Currently price is trading 1588 pushing higher for critical test of monthly and quarterly pivots at 1590 handle. There is potential for significant supply between 1590 – 97 zone so stay alert for any reversal signal generated from this area.
Key downside support will be 1573 CPZ zone mentioned above…IF violated, THEN deeper correction measures 1565 – 69 zone.
I know anything can happen, and I can handle anything that does happen. I am open minded. My thoughts and perceptions are clear. I know what to look for. I have rehearsed everything. I adapt to change. I will listen to my indicators and the patterns that emerge. I will adjust and not demand that things continue as they first started.
Further downside trade in prior session marked a critical 7.5% pullback…At this juncture price action can be classified as normal ABC type correction…The real question: Is it complete?
Overnight trade pulled back to the pivot breakout level at 1559…So this level becomes “key marker” for pit traders. As long as any further pullbacks can hold 1567 – 69 zone, price has potential for relief rally back to 1582 – 86 zone. Penetration of PDH targets 1594 – 96 zone.
How the next few trading days unfold will provide better insight as to investor sentiment regarding recent pullback.
I will identify my mistakes and learn from them. I am optimistic, realistic and honest. I will not make up stories about the good or bad things that occurred in the past or are happening now. I admit when something is not working. My optimism gives me faith and courage. I will not fall prey to blame and fear
The June (Joon) Swoon continues globally as China shares get battered overnight down 5.3% on fears of cash crunch in the banking sector, as well as ending of Fed’s QE policy.
US futures pre-market are down slightly below Friday’s low of 1570.50. The path of least resistance continues to be on the downside, so no reason to fight this momentum. There will be at some point a strong reversal bounce which is foolish to even try to predict, so be careful to those that have counter-trend trading tendencies.
PTG Methodology is designed to keep traders on the correct side of market action, so stay disciplined and all will be just fine.
Today’s levels line up like this: Violation of PDL suggest momentum pushing prices down further to 1558 – 62 zone with deep extensions 1540 – 50 zone. IF price can find some early stabilization from the selling and reverse the downside momentum, THEN upside retracements measure 1585 up through 1597…again, a very wide zone, as volatility dictates less precision in identifying turning points.
Remain disciplined and flexible.
I can recover from any setback. I have an attitude of abundance. I affirm abundance in the universe. I know I cannot begin to count the stars. I realize the ocean doesn’t care whether I go to it with a bucket or a teaspoon. I know the market provides a river of opportunities. I invest in my capabilities. I will be happy with my results.
Trend down yesterday hit deep price target of 1577 handle…we had issued a “prime turn alert” near 1580 which suggests “end of trend” soon to be followed by reversal. Overnight trade has produced a 10-handle bounce from settlement.
Today marks quarterly options expiration, so there could be residual volatility as traders square out positions prior to weekend.
Key levels for today to consider are prior day low (PDL) at 1577.00…Potential retest could happen today if sellers dominate. Initial upper resistance 1604 – 08 zone…Central Pivot Zone between 1589 – 1600 is current balance point as price may just chop sideways in range type trade to absorb and consolidate prior two day sell-off. Remain Flexible!
I take the long term view. I am willing to lose in the short term. I understand that losses are a necessary cost of doing business, like inventory to a merchant. Drawdowns are viewed as temporary. I realize that my wins and winning periods are part of the broad process. Each trade is but one in a string of trades. What is happening now is one piece of a much larger puzzle. Because of this I do not get overly euphoric or despondent.
The Fed clarified it’s position on tapering of “QE Infinity” yesterday…Seems like infinity is not so, well let’s say: “infinite”. Markets reacted just like a ‘crack-baby’ withdrawing from it’s “fix”. Investors don’t seem to actually care whether the Economy is improving and can stand up on it’s own two feet…They want to be fed their daily fix of easy money…My view: “Grow the F-up!” people…Free Markets should be “free-markets” and should be able to stand alone without government intervention.
Yesterday’s strategy was again spot on as price failed to get above 1648 – 50 zone and following news release sold down hard to daily target zone…click here to re-read: http://polaristradinggroup.com/trade-strategy-for-6-19-13-fed-day/
Overnight momentum has pushed price down further to today’s extension targets 1608 – 12 zone. Bulls will need to be in damage control mode once again…Any stabilization of this lower zone could force a tradable bounce back up to 1622 – 25 zone. Further weakness calls for 1601…then 1590 pivot retest…OH MY! Stay Nimble!
I am at peace with uncertainty. I know there is no such thing as a sure thing. I have no particular need to be right. I understand that being perfect has no place in trading. I am flexible. I am willing to change my mind. I am alert to scenario changes. I accept the information that tells me I am on the right track or on the wrong track
Today is Fed Day…All eyes and ears will be on language regarding the tapering of “QE Forever”. How the markets respond is uncertain which for day traders should provide plenty of opportunity. Intra-day ranges have been wide, so per yesterday’s strategy title “extreme trading”…expect more of the same today.
Trend Day up yesterday provided plenty of valid Discount Setups for the membership which hit the daily target of 1648 handle laid out in strategy post. Pre-Market action is relatively subdued and rangebound between 1640 – 1648. We are anticipating quiet trade leading up to Fed announcement and news conference.
IF price penetrates PDH, THEN projections carry a wide range from 1650 – 59…very wide indeed, but this is because of recent volatility. On the downside, levels to watch are 1640, 1638, 1632-34. IF PDL is violated, THEN 1627 – 1621 is in-play.
Yes these are wide ranges to consider, but Fed Day is not a normal session and with varying opinions could result in big price moves…hence “extreme trading”. Stay Alert!
I think in terms of probabilities. I do not know, all I have are probabilities. Probabilities are at the core of my decisions. Through consistent application of the probabilities, I will win.
Increased volatility within a wide trading range is a traders “dream”…Trading the Extremes to key support and resistance zones can pay big…Chasing a move can be disastrous…Symmetry is defined as: “Similarity or Likeness in Swing”…Using symmetry in range-bound markets can aid the trader in identifying potential price extremes from which to trade. Look at twitpic and notice how well defined pullback swing measured, from which tradable bounces occurred.
Today’s Strategy is “more of the same”…Extreme Trading…Initial resistance: 1640 – 42…IF penetrated and holds, THEN upside targets 1648 – 50 zone.
Pullbacks to 1629 – 31 can consider long side with proper setups…Failure to hold any pullbacks targets lower zones…Stronger support located 1622 – 25 zone…similar to yesterday’s key zone.
I am at ease with controlled risk. I will risk and I will win. I am courageous. I will take a chance. I manage risk to my comfort level. Risk keeps me on my toes, keeps me alert and at the top of my game.
Last week we highlighted developing 1st Pullback from “Key Low”. See TwitPic:
Subsequent strong rally ensued hitting a high of 1635.00 (Sept Contract). Friday’s corrective pullback measured a perfect 50% to 1617 handle where PTG was aggressive buyer in the live trading room.
Currently in pre-market action price has pushed up and retesting prior session high at 1635.00. There is potential for resistance developing from this level since price has already achieved and exceeded the three-day cycle price objectives. Any pullback is a potential buy back towards 1620 – 25 handle with 1617 being “Key Support Marker”. IF buyers continue to push price higher, THEN any upside penetration of PDH would target 1643’s.
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.