Pre-Holiday (Labor Day) trade is anticipated to be relatively quiet…Continued unrest in Middle East will keep most traders/investors from initialing any new positions and existing positions will be pared ahead of long holiday weekend.
Key Resistance continues to be 1642 – 47 zone…which can be faded until penetrated…Initial support 1633 – 36 zone which is 3-D Central Pivot Zone (3D CPZ)..Any violation of this zone calls for lower levels to be tested yet again…1625 – 27 is a “must hold” for the bulls. Any violation of this zone again calls for 1613 – 17 zone to be targeted.
Stay Nimble…Follow the Trade Rules!
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.
Yesterday SnP had a short lived recovery bounce which pushed price back to prior day open range 1636 – 39 which was anticipated supply zone. Failed attempt to expand beyond that zone creates today’s resistance marker.
IF 1639.00 is penetrated and holds, THEN initial upside projected targets 1643 – 47 zone. Initial support is 1630 – 33 zone…Violation of this zone calls for retest of 1625 handle…Further violation of prior day low would force long liquidation with lower targets down in 1613 – 17 zone.
Today’s Strategy will be to buy pullbacks above key support zone (1630 – 33), anticipating price stabilization ahead of holiday weekend, as traders will be looking to square positions to limit risk exposure with Middle East situation.
I am detached from the results. I think in terms of the process and the validity of the process. I understand that I am more than the trading. I do not tie a fragile ego to any day’s trading results. I have faith that over time I will make money. The results of any one trade are statistically unimportant. I think in term of probability. A single trade says nothing about me as a person.
Yesterday’s “Gap n Go” setup a perfect trend-down day scenario where selling the pullbacks with numerous Premiums Setups got us short with high Reward/Risk “profitunities”.
Our Market Top call from 8/2/13 has worked out extremely well with Inverse ETF’s /Put Option positions. Here is link to our Twitter Post alerting Members:
Prime Turn Date: https://twitter.com/TradePilotPro/status/364774556122116096/photo/1
Follow-up Post: https://twitter.com/TradePilotPro/status/368727347345625088/photo/1
Click on image to enlarge:
Prior Day’s Low (PDL) 1626.25 represents the Dynamic D-Level (DDL) taken from 8/22 low – 8/25 high swing. This level marks a short-term potential low for bounce attempt. Further violation and fail to recover of this level targets 1613 – 1617 zone.
IF PDL holds and price stages a rally, THEN initial upside retracement targets 1636 – 1644 zone. Prior Day Volume-Trend Midpoint (PDVTMP) is 1635 handle.
I am ready to trade. My patterns are verified. My homework is complete. My mind is clear. I have rehearsed everything. I am prepared strategically, emotionally, and financially each and every day
Yesterday’s rejection from the “Unfair High” zone is exactly what we were looking for short trade opportunity.
See Twitter post: https://twitter.com/TradePilotPro/status/371970248376713216/photo/1
Nervousness about Syria’s deteriorating situation pulled markets down sharply and currently in overnight trade ES is down 12 handles to the lower edge of seven-day range near 1642…On the edge of “Unfair Low” zone. This may present a buying opportunity, but the current wildcard regarding potential military strikes against Syria will keep bulls tentative on establishing new positions until there is some clarity of Middle East conflicts.
Pre-market action has price trading already at lower projected range targets at 1641 – 43 zone. Any further weakness could push price down to prior low at 1631 handle for a retest. Initial resistance on any rally attempt could be sold into between 1650- 56 zone.
I am disciplined. I behave in a way to reach my goals. I do what I intend to do. I have the intent to win through right actions. I will be patient for patterns to emerge and mature. I am decisive. I decide easily and act promptly. I act in the right way and right on time. When there is nothing to be done, I will wait.
Looking back at past seven days shows clearly via Volume Profile that price remains within a well defined range with a wide Value Area between 1648 – 1662. The balance point is 1655 (VTMP). Our Trade Strategy remains to sell the “unfair high zone” from 1662 through 1668 and buy the “unfair low zone” from 1641 – 1648. Reversion to the seven day mean near 1655 is profit zone.
Volume Profile: https://twitter.com/TradePilotPro/status/371970248376713216/photo/1
Now this is larger picture…one in which identifies what the “big boyz” are anticipated to trade…Our goal as intra-day traders is to identify “key zones” and remain on the side of the dominant player. The tactical approach we use such as Open Range, AJ’s, LB’s Premium/Discounts trade setups must be in agreement with overall strategy.
In overnight trade price tested upper edge and was squarely rejected, so current GBX High will become “marker”. Prior Day High (PDH) 1662.75 will be key for session traders as initial resistance. Key pullback levels to be mindful of for potential support are 1656 – 58 and underneath that is 1650 – 1652.
I am courageous and I always act, even in the face of uncertainty and possible loss. Do not say, no fear. Feel the fear and act anyway. I may be frightened, but I still saddle up. I am not reckless. I act promptly in accordance with my methodology. I respect my calculations. I have a healthy respect and I balance that respect with my courage. I am an explorer. I am on a hero’s journey.
During the past five trading sessions price has traded with some wild swings…which has provided some decent opportunities. If you were to view price action from Volume Profile perspective, you’ll notice that distribution of activity has been fairly evenly spread across a wide range of price points forming a “normal distribution” curve.
Volume Profile: https://twitter.com/TradePilotPro/status/370878920989503488/photo/1
Upper Edge 1661.00 denotes Upper Value Area (UVA)…Lower Edge 1646.00 denotes Lower Value Area (LVA) and 1652.00 VT-POC.
Trade Strategy has been Buy Dips and Sell Rips near the price edge “extremes”…Key Zones to be mindful of are: Lower Zone 1641 – 43 for support…Upper Zone 1658 – 62 for resistance. Break above or below these zones calls for move in direction of “break n hold”. Otherwise price can continue to trade within these current boundaries.
Remain disciplined and flexible.
I know anything can happen, and I can handle anything that does happen. I am open minded. My thoughts and perceptions are clear. I know what to look for. I have rehearsed everything. I adapt to change. I will listen to my indicators and the patterns that emerge. I will adjust and not demand that things continue as they first started.
Yesterday’s market reaction to Fed Minutes was like being on a wild Roller Coaster Ride with no less than three +2 Standard Deviation (SD) moves down..up..and down to settle at low of day. Surely a wild ride for any trader’s stomach to handle.
Pre market has price back a prior day’s VTMP 1645…So all that craziness was “Bots Gone Wild”…
Today Strategy will be to look to buy n sell the extremes edges as they develop…With yesterday’s action Mr. Market needs to settle down and regain its composure.
Upper Zone 1651 – 1655 Lower Zone 1630 – 36 Three-Day Central Pivot Zone (3D CPZ) 1644 – 1648.
Remain Nimble and Disciplined.
I will identify my mistakes and learn from them. I am optimistic, realistic and honest. I will not make up stories about the good or bad things that occurred in the past or are happening now. I admit when something is not working. My optimism gives me faith and courage. I will not fall prey to blame and fear.
Tuesday’s Trade Strategy called for a “relief rally” of approximately 1%…Actual increase…+0.88%..not to shabby. It’s been said…”You are only as good as your last trade…”…I’m not sure of the author of that saying…but if we can take that as truth…then we can also say…”We are as GREAT as our next trade…” My Quote! Let’s all pursue Greatness in our trading!
Though price rallied yesterday, it could not hold onto those gains, which calls into question the bulls “sustainability” and “resolve”. Bulls need to show they have taken control with a “follow-thru day”. For this to occur, price cannot print a lower low and needs to at minimum produce a higher low. Next bulls must make another attempt and succeed at producing a New Swing High (NSH) above Prior Day High (PDH) 1656.75 and hold above.
In overnight trade price has retraced to yesterday’s breakout level of 1645 and has bounced (good sign)…Now price needs to get above the 3-Day Central Pivot Zone (3D CPZ) 1649.50 – 1651.50 to show additional Sign of Strength (SOS). Dynamic price targets will be updated in trading room.
I can recover from any setback. I have an attitude of abundance. I affirm abundance in the universe. I know I cannot begin to count the stars. I realize the ocean doesn’t care whether I go to it with a bucket or a teaspoon. I know the market provides a river of opportunities. I invest in my capabilities. I will be happy with my results.
S&P Index has been down four (4) consecutive sessions giving up approximately -3%, which can be classified as “normal” pullback. Past pullbacks of this magnitude have resulted in a “relief rally” of about 1%, so conditions are in place for that to occur…remain vigilant.
Today’s “key marker” will be 1641.00…which is 40 handles from breakdown level of 1681. Further violation of this level with renewed selling could force additional long liquidation, so it is critical that some price stability begin to occur.
Today’s Strategy we’ll be looking for evidence that recent selling has abated and bulls regain some semblance of control…Price action must generate a new swing high above 1648 which would be an initial sign of strength. Prior day VTMP 1649 – 53 marks initial supply zone which must be overcome for any higher price potential. Beyond this zone we’ll update higher price targets in trading room.
Violation of 1641 calls for reassessment of relief rally scenario with multiple lower targets pushing as far down as 1631. Live updates in the trading room.
I take the long term view. I am willing to lose in the short term. I understand that losses are a necessary cost of doing business, like inventory to a merchant. Drawdowns are viewed as temporary. I realize that my wins and winning periods are part of the broad process. Each trade is but one in a string of trades. What is happening now is one piece of a much larger puzzle. Because of this I do not get overly euphoric or despondent.
Selling has picked up momentum past few trading sessions and S&P is now below its 50 dma notching approximately -3% decline…So until price can recapture that average, hold and turn positive…any rally attempt is anticipated to be sold into by the BIG Boyz.
Short-term Trade Strategy will be short rallies at key zones (with proper reversal trigger)…Continue to remain disciplined in identifying high quality trade setups and following through on trading plan.
Prior Day High (PDH 1662.00 will be a key hurdle for the bulls to get back above at minimum..so until that happens, can look to short with 62’s as key marker. The current CPZ is 1652.25 – 1655.75…expect some initial response from sellers near that zone. Getting above that level is a must to slow down and turn down progression.
IF Prior Day Low (PDL) 1649.50 is violated with no recovery, THEN 1646 – 1643 – 1638 levels are targeted.
I am at peace with uncertainty. I know there is no such thing as a sure thing. I have no particular need to be right. I understand that being perfect has no place in trading. I am flexible. I am willing to change my mind. I am alert to scenario changes. I accept the information that tells me I am on the right track or on the wrong track.