Fed Day

Yesterday’s trade was relatively quiet ahead of today Fed announcement and following a wide-range day Monday. Traders seemed fairly content to take a breather. Early probe lower to prior settlement found lack of willing sellers, reversing price back higher only to probe for buy stops above the open range high zone to the edge of yesterdays stated STAT-X Zone at 1874.75.

Early morning trade is very light within prior day’s range. The current bias is slightly bullish as long as yesterday’s low marker continues to hold. We are anticipating relatively light trade into the 2 pm ET announcement.

Overlapping STAT-X Zone and Three-Day Central Pivot Zone (3D CPZ) between 1863.75 – 1865.25 marks initial support, with more important zone 1857.25 – 1854.25 should price auction that low. IF price can penetrate PDH and convert, THEN upside targets measure 1879.75, 1883.50, with more important extreme zone 1886.75 – 1889.50.

Stay Nimble…ALWAYS USE STOPS!

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Good Trading…David

Habitude Six
I am at peace with uncertainty. I know there is no such thing as a sure thing. I have no particular need to be right. I understand that being perfect has no place in trading. I am flexible. I am willing to change my mind. I am alert to scenario changes. I accept the information that tells me I am on the right track or on the wrong track.

 

 

Bears Growled….Bulls Stampeded

Be Prepared….Don’t Predict

DTS Premium Edition begins May 1st.

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Monday’s trade session had a bit of something for everyone…”Da Bears” enjoyed the morning session driving price down nearly 28 handles, only to have the Bulls stampede back pushing price up about 24 handles off the low. We cannot say Mr. Market isn’t an “equal opportunity” employer.

In yesterday’s Daily Trade Strategy (DTS), we projected resistance zone to be between (1868.25 – 1871.50)…The actual High of Day (HOD) was 1871.75. The projected support zone to be (1842.60 – 1846.00)…actual Low of Day (LOD) 1844.00..”dead center” within anticipated support zone. It was a “direct hit” on both zones…certainly a rare occurrence..but heck, we’ll take it.

We want to openly congratulate PTG Member, Amy P. who was able to capture an astounding 10 handle move in Monday’s Session, following the DTS,  along with our famed “Premium and Discount” Trade Setup. Congratulations Amy!

On to business today…

Early morning trade has price extending 6 handles higher beyond settlement, testing Prior Day High (PDH) 1871.75. IF the buying remains strong and robust, momentum initially targets STAT-X Zone between 1874.75 – 1878.00. Higher price targets measure 1880.75 – 1883.50. Should price fail to convert PDH, then pullback to 1864 – 66 zone would anticipate to be initial buy response…Additional lower levels that would come into-play on pullback are: 1859 – 62 zone, followed by 1856 – 58 zone. Below 1856.00 “marker” shifts the dynamics back to the bears advantage.

Follow The Plan….ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Five
I think in terms of probabilities. I do not know, all I have are probabilities. Probabilities are at the core of my decisions. Through consistent application of the probabilities, I will win.

Sentiment Shift

In Friday’s DTS we noted that the prior session’s high…may in-fact mark a key short-term high point within this current swing up, as it also marks an important Fibonacci 55 day expansion from February 5th low.”…and that…“failure to hold 1864 on pullback could potentially force long liquidation targeting 1861 handle down to 1855 – 53 zone.”

The projected low of 1853.00 hit to-the-tick in Friday’s session, marking  key short-term retracement low. Currently the recent two-day selling-spree is only classified as pullback within larger uptrend, though a more important sentiment shift may be developing. April marks the end of the historically strongest six-month period in the stock market, so could the “Sell in May…and Go Away” play out on cue? IF the 1853.00 low marker is violated, THEN probabilities increase for lower prices…maybe not today..but be watchful of that level.

Overnight trade has price in a corrective up bounce condition…Key overhead resistance zone is the 3D CPZ between 1868.25 – 1871.50. Above that zone is 1872.75 – 1875 for stronger resistance. Those levels need to be penetrated and converted to change the current pullback dynamics. On the lower side, there is not much in the way of real support zones until much lower (1850 – 1852), followed by 1842.60 – 1846. So the downside appears more vulnerable to a renewed onslaught of aggressive selling.

Trade Strategy as laid out in prior posting remains valid…now favors “selling the rallies” until bulls can reaffirm their dominance.”

Stay Disciplined….ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Four
I am at ease with controlled risk. I will risk and I will win. I am courageous. I will take a chance. I manage risk to my comfort level. Risk keeps me on my toes, keeps me alert and at the top of my game.

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Short-Term High

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In an effort to provide PTG Clients the highest quality market analysis and daily trade strategy preparation “prior to pit session opening”, the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) Blog which has been freely distributed will convert to Premium status beginning May 1st, 2014.

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Thank You and Good Trading

 

Yesterday’s Trade Strategy stated: Failure to hold Open Range and/or ONL calls into question bulls strength with pullback levels at PDH 1875.75. The 2-day value zone HVN resides at 1868 – 70 levels for major support should price retreat that deep.”

Well price did indeed fail to hold open range with very aggressive selling from the opening bell, pushing price lower to key Three-Day Central Pivot Zone (1864) during fist 30 minutes of trading…Followed by strong snap-back rally to Open Range Average (1877.25). Price finally stabilized for remainder of session within our expected support zone between 1868 – 1870.

Yesterday’s high may in-fact mark a key short-term high point within this current swing up, as it also marks an important Fibonacci 55 day expansion from February 5th low.

Trade Strategy now favors “selling the rallies” until bulls can reaffirm their dominance.

Key resistance zone is the 3D-CPZ between (1872 – 1875)…We’ll be looking to establish shorts within this region should price retrace back up. Potential retest of prior days low at 1864 becomes more likely to reaffirm a key support level. Recall that 1864 was the Key HVN Marker for March. Failure to hold 1864 on pullback could potentially force long liquidation targeting 1861 handle down to 1855 – 53 zone.

Stay Disciplined….Follow The Rules…ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Three
I am willing to accept loss. Losing is an integral part of the process. I know and accept that individual losses and losing periods will happen. They are endemic to trading. I do not like loss. I do not expect loss. I simply accept loss as a cost of doing business.

“an Apple a Day”…helps keep Da Bears at bay”

***Announcement***

Polaris Daily Trade Strategy Blog is going Premium beginning May 1st, 2014.

In an effort to provide PTG Clients the highest quality market analysis and daily trade strategy preparation “prior to pit session opening”, the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) Blog which has been freely distributed will convert to Premium status beginning May 1st, 2014.

The Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) Premium Edition subscription pricing will be $29.95 monthly. If you are interested in continuing to receive the DTS prior to the pit opening, please send an early subscribe request to david@polaristradinggroup.com.

The DTS will be posted to website’s blog page at 4:15 pm for public review.

 

Strong quarterly earnings report by Apple Computer along with 7-for-1 stock split has propelled futures higher for an expected large gap open. This gap should be plenty to nab “buy stops” on all indexes…Da Bears are definitely growling this morning as there is not much they can do about it…”an Apple a Day…helps keep Da Bears at bay”!

In overnight trade price currently is above the 2-day high at 1878.75, so as long as price can hold the ONL (1877.00) and produce a solid Open Range sequence, then further upside can push to 1883 – 86 zone…with extremes measuring 1890.00 TargetMaster breakout target.

Failure to hold Open Range and/or ONL calls into question bulls strength with pullback levels at PDH 1875.75. The 2-day value zone HVN resides at 1868 – 70 levels for major support should price retreat that deep.

Stay Nimble…Follow the Rules  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Two
I am detached from the results. I think in terms of the process and the validity of the process. I understand that I am more than the trading. I do not tie a fragile ego to any day’s trading results. I have faith that over time I will make money. The results of any one trade are statistically unimportant. I think in term of probability. A single trade says nothing about me as a person.

Bulls in Control

***Announcement***

Polaris Daily Trade Strategy Blog is going Premium beginning May 1st, 2014.

In an effort to provide PTG Clients the highest quality market analysis and daily trade strategy preparation “prior to pit session opening”, the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) Blog which has been freely distributed will convert to Premium status beginning May 1st, 2014.

The Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) Premium Edition subscription pricing will be $29.95monthly. If you are interested in continuing to receive the DTS prior to the pit opening, please send an early subscribe request to david@polaristradinggroup.com.

The DTS will be posted to website’s blog page at 4:15 pm for public review.

Thank you and Good Trading

Tuesday’s Trade Strategy posting was spot on, as we were looking for continued strength if price was able to penetrate 1865 handle and convert….That’s exactly how price unfolded offering PTG Traders an early Long Discount Trade Setup that netted a very nice +3.6 R/R. Price came within one tick of the TargetMaster 1879.00 price target before reversing lower by settlement. (note: TargetMaster Levels are published on software at start of Globex Session 6:00 pm ET).

The current uptrend remains intact with bulls in control, so trade strategy continues to be “buy the dips” on pullbacks to Key Marker Zones. Prior Day High (PDH) 1878.75 should mark near-term resistance on any future test. IF bulls continue to be aggressive, a penetration of PDH calls for 1880 – 82 zone followed by 1884.25…1886.50…1887.25.

Key pullback zone to watch for initial support is 1870 – 72, which represents prior days Lower Value (LVA) and High Volume Node (HVN). IF price fails to find sufficient buyers within this zone, THEN deeper pullback suggests 3D CPZ (1862- 64) for stronger support.

Dynamic S&R Levels will be updated throughout the day in PTG Live Trading Room.

Good Trading…David

Habitude Two I am detached from the results. I think in terms of the process and the validity of the process. I understand that I am more than the trading. I do not tie a fragile ego to any day’s trading results. I have faith that over time I will make money. The results of any one trade are statistically unimportant. I think in term of probability. A single trade says nothing about me as a person.

 

Repeat Trade Strategy

***Announcement***

Polaris Daily Trade Strategy Blog is going Premium beginning May 1st, 2014.

In an effort to provide PTG Clients the highest quality market analysis and daily trade strategy preparation “prior to pit session opening”, the Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) Blog which has been freely distributed will convert to Premium status beginning May 1st, 2014.

The Daily Trade Strategy (DTS) Premium Edition subscription pricing will be $29.95 monthly. If you are interested in continuing receiving the DTS prior to the pit opening, please send an early subscribe request to david@polaristradinggroup.com.

The DTS will be posted to website’s blog page at 4:15 pm for public review.

Thank you and Good Trading

 

It was a quiet trade session yesterday following Passover/Easter holiday weekend, as well as Europe financial market being closed…So prior day’s trade strategy remains largely intact with some minor price tweaking.

Key price zone that still needs to be converted is the 1865 handle. This level marks the upper edge of monthly value zone and is critical for bulls to be able to expand value even higher to attract new buying. Failure to convert calls for pullback within value…a fairly wide zone, so below are some key levels to consider.

IF price penetrates PDH (1865.50) and converts, THEN upper targets 1866 – 68 zone, followed by extremes near 1873.50. Failure to convert PDH calls for pullback within value to initial support between 1855 – 57 zone…Firmer support resides within the 3D CPZ (1844 – 48)…Extremes measure 1840- 42. Below this zone breaks the bulls back and suggests a major sentiment shift.

Good Trading…David

Habitude One
I am ready to trade. My patterns are verified. My homework is complete. My mind is clear. I have rehearsed everything. I am prepared strategically, emotionally, and financially each and every day.

Marathon Monday

Today is Marathon Monday (Boston Marathon) and marks one year from the horrific terrorist bombing (cowards). Please take a moment to remember those that lost their lives in the attack and those souls in the 911 attack….NEVER FORGET!

Speaking of marathons…trading is a marathon, not a sprint. “Slow n Steady Wins the Race….Faster Eddie Can’t Keep Pace.” Simply, maintain your discipline, be persistent, determinedconfident, not only in your trading method, but more importantly in Yourself.

Quiet overnight trade following the holiday weekend. Price is hovering within our targeted price zone noted in Thursday’s blog post (1860 – 62). Bulls remain in charge as earnings season is in full swing…this week has plenty of reports that money managers and analysts will be watching closely.

Key price zone that still needs to be converted is the 1865 handle. This level marks the upper edge of monthly value zone and is critical for bulls to be able to expand value even higher to attract new buying. Failure to convert calls for pullback within value…a fairly wide zone, so below are some key levels to consider.

IF price penetrates PDH (1863.75) and converts, THEN upper targets 1865 – 67 zone, followed by extremes near 1872.50. Failure to convert PDH calls for pullback within value to initial support between 1855 – 57 zone…Firmer support resides within the 3D CPZ (1844 – 48)…Extremes measure 1840- 42. Below this zone breaks the bulls back and suggests a major sentiment shift.

Good Trading…David

Habitude Twelve
I am disciplined. I behave in a way to reach my goals. I do what I intend to do. I have the intent to win through right actions. I will be patient for patterns to emerge and mature. I am decisive. I decide easily and act promptly. I act in the right way and right on time. When there is nothing to be done, I will wait.

Bullish Momentum

S&P E-mini continued its bullish momentum yesterday with opening gap higher and closing on high of day. Overnight trade continues to hold recent gains with support at 1848 handle.

Early morning trade has price at 1853 handle in light trade…Anticipation is for any pullback to be absorbed heading into options expiration above 1848.00. Shortened holiday week with markets closed for Good Friday.

Expectation is for responsive selling between 1855 – 57 zone. IF price penetrates PDH and converts, THEN further upside extends 1860 – 62 zone, with extremes 1864.75. Near-term support reside between 1846 – 48 zone, with additional levels 1845.25…1842.00.

Good Trading…David

Habitude Eleven
I am courageous and I always act, even in the face of uncertainty and possible loss. Do not say, no fear. Feel the fear and act anyway. I may be frightened, but I still saddle up. I am not reckless. I act promptly in accordance with my methodology. I respect my calculations. I have a healthy respect and I balance that respect with my courage. I am an explorer. I am on a hero’s journey.

Double Bottom Confirmed

S&P E-mini retested the key 1810 handle in prior session and found willing, aggressive buyers, solidifying symmetry support. Having penetrated and converting the key upper zone 1828 – 30, this confirms double bottom support and now sets the stage for building upon recent gains.

Having closed at session high, residual momentum in overnight has pushed price higher hitting some projected targets between 1848 – 1850 zone. This zone is anticipated to act as initial resistance into pit session. Any pullback from this zone targets the Prior Day High (1840.00) for initial test of breakout support. Should this level fail to hold, then deeper pullback into yesterday’s range targets 1832 – 35 zone, then 1828.  Dynamic S&R levels will be updated throughout the trade session in Trading Room.

Stay Focused and ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Ten
I know anything can happen, and I can handle anything that does happen. I am open minded. My thoughts and perceptions are clear. I know what to look for. I have rehearsed everything. I adapt to change. I will listen to my indicators and the patterns that emerge. I will adjust and not demand that things continue as they first started.