Trade Strategy 10.31.14

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

Thanks to Bank of Japan for offering the Markets a Big Halloween Treat with their version of Quantitative Easing. S&P has rocketed higher in overnight trade back to all-time high at 2014. Central Banks will continue to flood the world with easy money to fend off even the hint of deflation…Destroy the Yen…Destroy the Dollar…at all costs if the deflation snake rears its ugly head. HAPPY HALLOWEEN 🙂

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)..Simply all targets have been well exceeded with current price action courtesy of BOJ easing. Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Max Range = 22.50; Possible High of Day = 2007.75 (currently exceeded); Possible Low of Day 1967.75 (not even close); Upper STATX Zone = 2025.00 = 2037.25 (WOW!!)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF Prior Day High (1994.25) is cleared and converted (indeed it has), THEN upside projection measures 2007.75 (achieved and exceeded). Prior all-time high has been hit at 2014 handle.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (1994.25)…seems like a joke now…THEN 1982.50 is projected downside level for support…3DCPZ = 1977.25 = 1973.25. TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level = 1967.75.

Trade Strategy: With news from BOJ unexpected monetary easing has caused global markets to catapult higher…sorry shortie…Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Two
I am detached from the results. I think in terms of the process and the validity of the process. I understand that I am more than the trading. I do not tie a fragile ego to any day’s trading results. I have faith that over time I will make money. The results of any one trade are statistically unimportant. I think in term of probability. A single trade says nothing about me as a person.

Trade Strategy 10.30.14

“Today in Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…As mentioned, cycle price targets have been exceeded…Price can continue higher or it can begin a new down leg at any moment.”

The above quoted comment is from yesterday’s Daily Trade Strategy whereby expectation was for new responsive and aggressive action from sellers. Projected average range was 18 handles. Overnight high is 1980.75…minus (-) 18.00 equals (=) 1962.75…Current pre-open trade is 1962.00 (7:30 am ET). So average decline has currently been satisfied, though additional selling may overflow into pit-session trade.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1), which begins a new cycle and probe for a new “secure low” from which to stage the next rally. Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Range = 22.00; Possible High = 1992 – 1994 zone based upon conversion of CD3 high; Possible Low = 1951.50 based upon violation of CD3 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PDH (1985.75), THEN upside targets 1991.75 – 1994.25. ***This has low odds of occurring on CD1″

Scenario 2: Odds of decline to meet range parameters have greater likelihood of occurring on CD1. Price has already in overnight trade reached range target zone between 1961.25 – 1958.25 STATX Zone.

Trade Strategy: Deep upside Cycle Range Targets have been fulfilled on this multi-day rally. Expectation now is for more responsive and aggressive participation from sellers. As such our tactical trade strategy will be for selling rallies into key Decision Point Pivot Zones. We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers andPremium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude One
I am ready to trade. My patterns are verified. My homework is complete. My mind is clear. I have rehearsed everything. I am prepared strategically, emotionally, and financially each and every day.

 

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 10.29.14

Cycle Price Targets were achieved and exceeded in yesterday’s trade session…So any additional upside movement will be on “inertial energy”. S&P e-mini up 9.30% off the lows in 9 days…Like the 10% decline never even happened…Amazing!

Today in Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…As mentioned, cycle price targets have been exceeded…Price can continue higher or it can begin a new down leg at any moment. Average Range on CD3 = 18.00; Max Range = 21.50; Possible High = 1988.50 – 1993 based upon clearing and converting CD2 high; Possible Low = 1962.50 based upon average decline on CD3.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF prior-day high (1980.75) is cleared and converted, THEN there is a 54% chance of reaching 1984.25 – 1987.00 STATX Zone, with additional upside levels 1988.50 – 1989.25…1993.00…TargetMaster Range Breakout Level 1996.00.

Scenario2: Failure to convert PDH (1980.75), suggests buyers have been satisfied and decline could begin at any time. Downside levels to be mindful of are 1972.25 (CPZ), 1969.75, 1963.00…STATX Zone bwteen 1960.25 – 1957.50…TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level 1956.25.

Trade Strategy: We have been maintaining our trade setups in alignment with the bull (long-side), since that is where dominant action has been. We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers andPremium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Twelve
I am disciplined. I behave in a way to reach my goals. I do what I intend to do. I have the intent to win through right actions. I will be patient for patterns to emerge and mature. I am decisive. I decide easily and act promptly. I act in the right way and right on time. When there is nothing to be done, I will wait.

 

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 10.28.14

Yesterday was Cycle Day 1 (CD1) and as such, expectation was for price to probe lower to find a new secure low. Trade Strategy 10.27.14 That is in-fact is exactly what happened, as sellers pushed price lower by a distance of an Average Decline (21.50) observed on CD1 to secure a new higher low at 1944.50. Here is the calculation: 1965.75 (HOD) minus (-) 21.50 (Avg Decline) equals (=) 1944.25. Actual LOD = 1944.50…Close enough for me!!

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Expectation is for further upside to reach Cycle Target 1966.25… Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Range = 22.50; Possible High = 1966.25 based upon Average Cycle Rally Projection; Max Possible High = 1973.75 based upon clearing and converting CD1 high. TargetMaster Range Breakout Target is 1982.50; Possible Low = 1954.50 based upon average range on CD2. Three-Day Central Pivot = 1949.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF PDH (1965.75) is cleared and converted, THEN there is a 65% chance of reaching Cycle Target 1966.25 and STATX Zone 1969.25…Strength above this zone targets 1972.50 – 1974.00.

Scenario 2: Failure to hold above PDH (1965.75) suggests price needs to consolidate recent gains…Levels to be mindful of on pullback within prior day range are: 1962.50 – 1965 (VTMP); 1952.- 1955 (ORRMP). Violation of this zone targets the 3DCPZ at 1949.50.

Trade Strategy: We have been maintaining our trade setups in alignment with the bull (long-side), since that is where dominant action has been. We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Eleven
I am courageous and I always act, even in the face of uncertainty and possible loss. Do not say, no fear. Feel the fear and act anyway. I may be frightened, but I still saddle up. I am not reckless. I act promptly in accordance with my methodology. I respect my calculations. I have a healthy respect and I balance that respect with my courage. I am an explorer. I am on a hero’s journey.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 10.27.14

Today begins a new cycle (CD1)…With the Bulls having firmly regained control, any decline may be relatively shallow if there is continued upside momentum in price.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 71%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Range = 22.00; Average Decline = 21.50; Possible High = 1967 – 69 zone based upon clearing and converting CD3 high; Possible Low = 1938 – 40 based upon average decline observed on CD1.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF PDH (1960.25) THEN there is a 55% chance of price reaching 1964.50 – 66.50 zone. Above this zone targets 1969.50, top of STATX Zone. IF price momentum is super strong, THEN upside potential target TargetMaster Range Breakout Level 1986.25.

Scenario 2: Failure to clear and convert PDH (1960.25), expectation is for pullback in price lower to probe for renewed buy response and a new secure cycle low for which to stage next rally. Price levels to be mindful of are: 1954 – 56…1951.25..1946.50, followed by Three-Day Central Pivot Zone between 1942.25 – 1939.25. TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level is 1934.25. Violation on PDL (1931.75) target expansion levels 1925.50, then 1921.25.

Trade Strategy: We have been maintaining our trade setups in alignment with the bull (long-side), since that is where dominant action has been. Anticipation is for some renewed selling to develop early in this cycle, with additional two-side trade activity to absorb recent bullish trade. We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Ten
I know anything can happen, and I can handle anything that does happen. I am open minded. My thoughts and perceptions are clear. I know what to look for. I have rehearsed everything. I adapt to change. I will listen to my indicators and the patterns that emerge. I will adjust and not demand that things continue as they first started.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 10.24.14

S&P e-mini continued its upside march yesterday to reach our projected TargetMaster Range Breakout Level of 1955.25. News report of NYC’s first Ebola patient which has tested positive put an end to the rally which was already into extreme territory.

Today is Cycle day 3 (CD3)…Having reached 3D Expansion Cycle Targets, some new aggressive selling may now re-emerge, as price rallied 7% off deep lows from last week.

Odds of 3D Rally = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; (Note: These odds have been achieved and exceeded); Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Range = 21.75; Possible High = 1964 – 69 zone; Possible Low zone = 1926 – 1911 zone.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF the Prior Day High (1956.25) is cleared and penetrated, THEN there is a 54% chance of price reaching 1964.00. TargetMaster Range Breakout Level = 1973.75.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (1956.25) suggests buyers are currently content with positions, and some additional back n fill consolidations would be required to renew buy response. Pullback zones to be mindful of are 1928 – 1933.50 3DCPZ and TargetMaster Breakdown Range Level 1918.25.

Trade Strategy: Expectation today is for additional two-side trade activity within prior days range to absorb recent bullish trade. We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Nine
I will identify my mistakes and learn from them. I am optimistic, realistic and honest. I will not make up stories about the good or bad things that occurred in the past or are happening now. I admit when something is not working. My optimism gives me faith and courage. I will not fall prey to blame and fear.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURES RESULTS

 

Trade Strategy 10.23.14

Yesterday was Cycle Day 1 (CD1) and played out perfectly….Failure to push new highs resulted in a “failed-auction” reversing price to probe for a “secure low”. We opined in the live trading room that expectation was for 1920 – 22 zone (VTMP) to become support with renewed buy response. The actual LOD (1920.25) which has held in overnight trade…Price has rallied in early morning trade back to 1938 essentially erasing prior days loss.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Expectation is for continued two-sided trade consolidation with a bullish-bias as long as prior day low holds. Odds of rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 44%; Average Range on CD2 = 14.50; Max Range = 22.50; Possible High = 1940 – 42 zone  based upon average cycle rally; Expansion High = 1950 – 52 based upon clearing and converting CD1 high. Possible Low = 1901.50 – 1902.50 based upon violation of CD1 low.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF PDH (1943.75) is cleared and converted, THEN there is a 60% chance of price extending to 1950.00 – 1952, with TargetMaster Range Breakout Target 1955.25.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (1943.75), suggests additional consolidation is necessary to work off selling pressure. Support levels to be mindful of on pullbacks are…1929.50 – 1932 zone…1926 – 28…then prior day low at 1920.25. Violation of low  calls for deeper correction targeting 19 11 – 1915 3DCPZ.

Trade Strategy: The Bull is currently in control, so we’ll defer to long-side trade opportunities on pullbacks to key Decision Point Pivots (DPP) until there is a definitive shift in underlying sentiment. Continue to focus of Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Eight
I can recover from any setback. I have an attitude of abundance. I affirm abundance in the universe. I know I cannot begin to count the stars. I realize the ocean doesn’t care whether I go to it with a bucket or a teaspoon. I know the market provides a river of opportunities. I invest in my capabilities. I will be happy with my results.

 

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 10.22.14

Solid “relief rally” drove market prices higher in excess of 50 handles as fears of an Ebola pandemic, worsening economy and just about any other investor concern has subsided. Price achieved TargetMaster Range Breakout Level of 1937.50 into the closing bell, a full 51.75 handles from the low tick of day.

Today begins a new cycle (CD1)…Having closed on the high end on range, momentum may push prices a bit higher before any aggressive selling develops. Odds of Decline > 10 = 70%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 41%; Average Range on CD1 = 18.75; Max Range = 22.00; Possible High = 1945.72 based upon clearing and converting CD3 high; Possible Low = 1916.50 based upon average decline.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences

Today’s Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF PDH (1938.75) is cleared and converted, THEN there is a 45% chance of price extending up initially to 1945.50 – 1947.50 zone with STATX Zone 1946.60 – 1954.75; TargetMaster Range Breakout Level is 1976.00.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (1938.75) suggests consolidation is anticipated…Minor support is 1930.25, followed by 1921.50…Average decline measures 1916.50, with additional layered levels between 1908 – 1912. TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level = 1900.50.

Trade Strategy: Bulls have regained control with a strong 3-Day Bullish Cycle…We will continue to remain aligned with dominant force, currently bull, on pullbacks to key Decision Point Pivots. Price having reached and exceeded cycle targets may need to consolidate recent gains, so anticipating some back n fill price action would be normal, so we’ll remain open to trade opportunities on either side of trade ledger. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Seven
I take the long term view. I am willing to lose in the short term. I understand that losses are a necessary cost of doing business, like inventory to a merchant. Drawdowns are viewed as temporary. I realize that my wins and winning periods are part of the broad process. Each trade is but one in a string of trades. What is happening now is one piece of a much larger puzzle. Because of this I do not get overly euphoric or despondent.

 

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 10.21.14

Yesterday was Cycle Day 2 (CD2) and odds (83%) favored a rally to continue the bullish 3-day cycle. We had outlined that possible high could reach 1898.25 (Actual HOD = 1898.50), based upon penetration and conversion of CD1 high. Click here to review: Trade Strategy 10.20.14. Price has trade higher in post-session and in pre-market following a solid earnings report by Apple Computer.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Extended cycle price targets have already been exceeded in pre-session trade…Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 53%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Range = 21.25; Possible High = 1909.50 based upon clearing and converting CD2 high. Possible Low = 1860.75; STATX Zone price target = 1913.50; TargetMaster Range Breakout Target = 1937.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences

Today’s Trade Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF price clears and converts PDH (1898.50), THEN there is a 68% chance of price extending to 1909.50, then 1913.50 STATX Zone. Above this zone measures 1926.25, then 1934.50 – 1937.50 zone

Scenario 2: Initial pullback support is marked at 1888.50 – 1893.50 CPZ…Violation of this zone targets 1881.00, then multiple levels between 1877.50 – 1868.50.

Trade Strategy: Bulls have regained control with a strong 3-Day Bullish Cycle…We will continue to remain aligned with dominant force, currently bull, on pullbacks to key Decision Point Pivots. Price having reached and exceed cycle targets may need to consolidate recent gains, so anticipating some back n fill price action would be normal, so we’ll remain open to trade opportunities on either side of trade ledger. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Six
I am at peace with uncertainty. I know there is no such thing as a sure thing. I have no particular need to be right. I understand that being perfect has no place in trading. I am flexible. I am willing to change my mind. I am alert to scenario changes. I accept the information that tells me I am on the right track or on the wrong track.

 

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

 

Trade Strategy 10.20.14

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2) Odds of Rally > 10 = 83%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 44%; Odds of Decline > 10 = 83%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 47%; Possible High = 1898.25 based upon penetrating and converting CD1 high; Possible Low = 1866.50 based upon average decline on CD2.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences

Today’s Trade Hypotheses:

Scenario 1: IF PDH (1891.75) is cleared and converted, THEN there is a 55% chance of reaching 1897.75 – 1899.50 upper STATX Zone. TargetMaster Range Breakout Level is 1919.50.

Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (1891.75), THEN odds favor decline to CPZ (1872.26 – 1874.25). Key retracement pivot is 1870 handle…Violation of this level targets 1866.50. Below this level measures down to the 3D CPZ (1858.00 – 1854.00)…TargetMaster Range Breakdown Level is 1848.50. Any violation of this level extends downward to 1837.75 – 1832.00 Xtreme zone.

Trade Strategy: Price has bounced nicely from the 10% correction low, but has now reached a level where potential renewed sellers may reenter the market if buying pressure subsides. Key Marker to be mindful of is 1892 handle for Bull/Bear Line in Sand. With intra-day volatility on the rise with swings of increased magnitude in either direction, our main trade strategy will be to remain open and flexible to two-side trade, both long/short from key Decision Point Pivots (DPP). As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined   ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

Habitude Five
I think in terms of probabilities. I do not know, all I have are probabilities. Probabilities are at the core of my decisions. Through consistent application of the probabilities, I will win.

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS