Trade Strategy 09.30.15

Markets

Global equities were higher at the time of writing and were set to end what’s been a brutal three months on a positive note. Many major markets have suffered their worst quarter for a number of years amid fears about China’s economy and the endless speculation about when the Fed will finally raise interest rates, and almost $11T has been wiped off the value of global shares. Emerging-market currencies have been hit particularly hard.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:15 ADP Jobs Report
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
2:00 PM Janet Yellen speech

PTG Trading

Late day margin selling pushed indexes to lows of session yesterday creating “double-bottom” formation. With a failed 3 Day Rally in prior Cycle, this is now setup for strong rally during new Cycle beginning today.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Secure low was found at 1861 double-bottom low yesterday…This sets up price for powerful rally which can occur on CD1…In overnight trade price has rallied 29 handles to reach CD1 Penetration Target 1898.50.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1898.50 (CD1 Penetration Level); Possible LOD = 1850 (Average Cycle Range Decline)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has rallied 29 handles in overnight trade reaching 1898.50 CD1 Penetration Target. Most upside objectives have been met, so any pullback during cash session will need to illicit responsive buyers…Additional upside targets to consider are 1901.75, then 1908.50 – 1910 Average Cycle Rally Target.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 1890.00 SPOT opens door for deeper downside. Levels to be mindful of are: 1883.50, 1878.50, 1873.50 SPOTS.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.29.15

Markets

European stocks were mixed and U.S. futures were broadly higher at the time of writing as Glencore shares recovered from their whipping yesterday. The company’s performance in the previous session helped push Asian equities sharply lower today, while continued fears about China’s economy didn’t help. However, India’s Sensex rose after a greater-than-expected rate cut by the central bank.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
3:00 PM Farm Prices
8:30 Producer Price Index
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

PTG Trading

Selling (long liquidation) continued uninterrupted as “risk-off” dominated the trading landscape. When the session ended, Market Internals and Net Cumulative Delta metrics told the story…minus 61 handles.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Unless price can recover back above CD1 Low (1910.25), this will be consecutive 3 Day Rally Failures…Tell tale sign of bearish corrective sentiment.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1911.50; Possible LOD = 1854.25.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently above PL (1868.75)…IF price can hold above this level during cash session, THEN odds (82%) favor a “relief rally” initially targeting 1882.75, then 1891.00 Central Pivot. Further strength above this level targets 1899.25, followed by 1910.25, which is today’s bullish objective to qualify for positive 3 day rally.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of PL (1868.75) targets 1860.50, followed by 1858.00 – 1854.25 CD3 Violation Zone.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.28.15

Markets

Shanghai was sharply lower early in the session, but managed to eke out a 0.3% gain by the end Monday’s trade. Hong Kong also finished in the green, adding 0.4%. The Nikkei closed off its lows, but still fell 1.3%. Europe’s Stoxx 50 is down 0.9% after a bounce off opening lows failed to take hold. U.S. stock index futures have been moving between gains and losses, but the S&P 500 is currently lower by 0.15%. Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.4%. All eyes will be on the healthcare sector this week, particularly biotech, after its worst weekly plunge since the financial crisis. Also on tap Friday is the employment report for September.

Today’s Economic Calendar

Monday’s economic calendar:
8:30 Personal Income and Outlays
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
1:30 PM Fed’s Evans: U.S. Monetary Policy
5:00 PM Fed’s Williams Speech

PTG Trading

Having reached Cycle Target 1947.25 early in Friday’s overnight session, we knew odds (72%) were favorable for Cycle Day 1 (CD1) NORMAL SPILL DOWN…We were not disappointed as price closed within lower 25 quartile of session range.

In overnight trade today price bounced to 1923 – 1925, which is declining trend 3 Day Central Pivot Zone. Until price clears and converts down structure dominant trend remains down, with increasing potential to test August Low.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2) NEUTRAL SPILL UP…Odds of Rally > 10 = 84%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1925.50 Central Pivot; Possible LOD = 1892.50 CD2 Violation Target.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently below CD1 low (1910.25)…Bulls will need to recapture this level  to effectuate a rally…IF successful, THEN initial target/resistance is 1918.50 SPOT, followed by 1925.50 SPOT.

Scenario 2: Bears currently have control with price below CD1 Low (1910.25)…IF price cannot recover above this level, THEN more downside is to be expected to flush out longs before the real rally can begin. Downside levels to be mindful of are 1900 ROUNDIE, followed by 1896.75 Average Cycle Decline, then 1892.50 CD2 Violation Level.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.25.15

Markets

Markets across the globe are on the rise after Fed Chair Janet Yellen eased concerns that last week’s decision to keep rates near zero had put off a rate rise for the foreseeable future. In yesterday’s speech at the University of Massachusetts, Yellen laid out her most detailed argument yet for raising rates in the coming months, stating that inflation pressures will build gradually over the next few years. World shares have largely been in the red since the Fed stood pat last Thursday, with investors interpreting the central bank’s caution as another worrying sign about the state of the global economy.

Traders are getting ready for the third and final reading of GDP for the second quarter – scheduled to be published this morning at 8:30 a.m ET. While the estimate was sharply adjusted upward to 3.7% in late August, most economists are not looking for another big revision. The report follows a terrible first quarter and comes in the wake of concerns that China’s slowdown could hurt the U.S.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 GDP Q2
8:30 Corporate Profits
9:15 Fed’s Bullard: U.S. Monetary Policy
9:45 PMI Services Index Flash
10:00 Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment
1:25 PM Fed’s George: Monetary policy and Economic Policy

PTG Trading

Well, it took some additional follow-through trade in overnight to reach Cycle Target 1947.25 projected in prior Daily Trade Strategy 09.24.15. This completes this Cycle as today begins a new Cycle Day 1 with the NORMAL SPILL DOWN.

Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 – 42%; Average Range = 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1947.25 (Cycle Rally Target); Possible LOD = 1897.00 (Average Cycle Decline)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Residual bullish momentum has push price above PH (1936.25) to reach Cycle Rally Target (1947.25). For continued bullish action price will need to hold above 1936.25 during cash session. IF this occurs, upside projects 1955.50 CD1 Penetration Level.

Scenario 2: Violation and reversal back down through PH (1936.25) will be first sign that price dynamics have shifted back to “sell-mode”. Levels to be mindful of for possible buy response are: 1931.50, 1928.25, 1924.00, 1918.50 SPOTS.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.24.15

Markets

Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak this evening on “inflation dynamics and monetary policy” at the University of Massachusetts. Traders are particularly eyeing her comments on inflation, after the Fed held off on a rate hike last Thursday and stirred up new fears about deflation. Besides Yellen’s speech, there are a few key pieces of data which will be released today, including jobless claims, durable goods and new home sales.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Durable Goods
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
9:45 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:00 New Home Sales
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
1:00 PM Results of $29B, 7-Year Note Auction
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
5:00 PM Janet Yellen speech

PTG Trading

Early overnight rally yesterday failed to continue during cash session, as price were locked in choppy rangebound trade…This failure for bulls to auction price higher continues to suggest potential for more weakness in coming days / weeks. Bulls will need to at minimum shift the current down trending 3 Day Central Pivot Zone back to a positive slope for chance for sustained upside rally.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently below CD1 Low (1917.75) in overnight trade…Price will need to close above this level during cash session to qualify for positive three-day rally.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of 3D Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1947.25 (Cycle Rally Target); Possible LOD = 1895.75 (CD3 Violation Target)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently testing 1910 handle in overnight trade…It is critical for bulls to respond aggressively and absorb supply…IF successful and price can recapture CD1 Low (1917.75), THEN odds are favorable to reach 1928.00 Central Pivot…Strength above this level opens door to 1938 – 1940 zone which has been hard resistance.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 1910 handle opens door to continued selling with lower downside targeting 1905 followed by 1895.75 CD3 Violation Target.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.23.15

Markets

U.S. stock futures are pointing higher as they look to overcome another tough day in Asian markets. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.1% and the Hang Seng Index was off 3.4% after manufacturing data from China rekindled concerns on growth in the region. Indexes in Australia and South Korea were also lower, while markets in Japan were closed for a national holiday. European stocks are in a seesaw session with most major indexes not showing solid gains. All eyes are on Germany where one in six jobs is dependent upon the automobile industry in some way. Economists are busy trying to estimate the broad impact of the Volkswagen scandal on German GDP.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
9:45 PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
11:30 Results of $13B, 2-Year FRN Auction
1:00 PM Results of $35B, 5-Year Note Auction

PTG Trading

Yesterday’s Session was textbook Cycle Day 1 (CD1) as it was NORMAL SPILL DOWN probing for “secure cycle low” from which to stage next rally. Price hit the 1918.50 SPOT we had projected for lower target…

Overnight trade has tested and slightly exceeded prior low (1917.75) down to 1910.50 (ONL) and has since rallied 30 handles to 1940.50. This strength has already met or exceeded today’s odds (84%) for Cycle Day 2 (CD2) NORMAL NEUTRAL SPILL UP…Next price objective will be the 1947.25 Average Cycle Rally Target.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NORMAL NEUTRAL SPILL UP…Odds of Rally > 10 = 84%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.50; Max Average Range = 22.50; Possible HOD = 1950.75 (3 Day Central Pivot); Possible LOD = 1914.00 (STATX Zone).

 

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has tested PL (1917.75) and has reversed with strong rally which ahs currently exceeded 30 handles…Price will need to stay above 1931.50 SPOT throughout the cash session with an upside objective of reaching 1947.25 Cycle Target.

Scenario 2: Bulls have regained control on current swing up off CD1 Low (1917.75)…Any pullback is expected to illicit buy response. Violation of 1930.00 Over/Under would shift trade dynamics back to bearish camp.

 

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.21.15

Markets

Federal Reserve policymaker James Bullard said Saturday he argued against holding rates steady during the Fed’s policy meeting last week because he believed the economy had recovered enough to begin raising rates. Bullard also described the meeting as “pressure packed,” and said the decision to hold rates steady was “a close call.”

Today’s Economic Calendar

10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations

PTG Trading

Investors/Traders continued their “risk-off” selling spree Friday following Fed’s decision to not increase Federal Funds Rate. Price has probed lower to test 1936 – 1938 zone which is KEY PIVOT from 9.15.15, where the recent rally began. Successful test increase odds of strong snap-back rally which could carry to 1972 – 1975 Three-Day Central Pivot Zone.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3) Strong Odds (82%) of SPILL UP to reach CD1 Low (1972.00) fulfilling Bullish 3 Day Cycle.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1972.00; Possible LOD = 1936.50.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price has successfully probed lower in overnight trade to 1936 – 1938 zone, increasing odds of a secure cycle low. Should this zone hold any additional testing during cash trade increases odds of strong rally which has potential energy to reach 1972 – 1975 3D CPZ and fulfilling 3 Day Cycle objectives.

Scenario 2: Violation and conversion of 1936 – 1938 zone will inflict significant pain to bulls, targeting 1931.50 SPOT, then 1920.50 deep statistical extreme. Below this level and long liquidation is inevitable.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.18.15

Markets

Sentiment in the stock markets was weak on Friday, after Fed Chair Janet Yellen decided to take a “little bit more time to evaluate the likely impacts” of recent market volatility before acting on interest rates. Although low rates have helped fuel years of rising share prices, markets are drawing little comfort from the decision as many investors feel a rate hike would have signaled the central bank’s confidence about economic growth. U.S. futures are all lower by about 1%.

Today’s Economic Calendar

10:00 Leading Indicators

PTG Trading

FED Interest Rate Decision is now history…NO CHANGE…for now…YELL 1991.00…This clearly hints at an economy not as robust as initially perceived…Global weakness, turmoil and volatility clearly weighed heavily in the Fed’s decision process. Intra-day price volatility spiked as no surprise…At days end Market on Close (MOC) Sell Imbalance topped $1B. So the large institutional money managers were clearly in “Sell the Decision” mode.

Overnight trade has price lower by 20 handles to 1955.25 which is today’s CD2 Violation Target…Quad-Witching is on tap for today, so expect continued price volatility.

Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…NORMAL NEUTRAL SPILL UP…This Cycle is ABERRANT, so what normally is expected has shifted…Price now must probe for that new cycle low from which to stage the next rally…The Decline did begin NORMALLY on CD1 and is currently continuing…Once price establishes a secure “confirmed” low, only then can the next rally begin.

Odds of Rally > 10 = 84%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 45%; Average Range = 14.75; Max Average Range =  22.50; Possible HOD = 1975.00; Possible LOD = 1950.00.

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is current trading at lower Violation Level (1955.50)…Price will need to find a secure low to stage rally (bounce). IF price can hold at or above 1950 – 1955 zone THEN upside initially target 1062.50 – 1967.50 zone. Above this zone target 1975.50 SPOT.

Scenario 2: Price decline has already achieved lower targets (1955.50) CD2 Violation Level. Should continued selling be dominant during cash session, additional lower levels will be in-play, such as, 1950, 1942.50, 1936.50 SPOTS.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.17.15

Markets

It’s one of the most anticipated monetary policy decisions for years, with markets still unclear if the Federal Reserve this afternoon will unveil its first interest rate hike in almost a decade. Traders this week have been reluctant to make significant bets ahead of the decision, which is expected to reverberate throughout the global economy. Two months ago, it seemed almost certain that the Fed was going to raise rates in September, but turmoil in the financial markets and concerns about China’s economy may see the Fed wait until December for an increase. U.S. futures are all lower by 0.2% pending the announcement.

Today’s Economic Calendar

8:30 Jobless Claims & Housing Starts

PTG Trading

S&P emini has rallied 50 plus handles from the 9/15 low as FED DAY is here with Interest Rate Policy Decision looming. Prior Session saw early consolidation followed by continuation move higher to reach CD3 Penetration Target.

Overnight trade is relatively light volume, holding gains within narrow range above 1980 handle. Expectation is for continued light trade into the Cash Morning Session as traders/investors await 2 pm ET FOMC Announcement, followed by Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30 pm ET.

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…NORMAL SPILL DOWN…Odds of Decline > 10 = 72%; Odds of Decline > 20 = 42%; Average Range= 18.75; Max Average Range = 22.25; Possible HOD = 2007.50 (Penetration Level); Possible LOD = 1950.26 (Average Cycle Range Decline).

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Current trend is bullish, so in order to keep trend intact, price needs to hold above 1976.00 SPOT. IF price can convert PH (1989.00), THEN initial upside projects 1992.75 – 1995.75 STATX Zone…Strength above this zone targets 2007.50 CD1 Penetration Level.

Scenario 2: Violation of 1976.00 SPOT threatens current bullish trend line…Lower support zone is marked between 1960.25 – 1966.50 where 3D CPZ and STATX Zone overlaps. Average Cycle Range Decline Target is at 1950.00 SPOT roundie.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

Trade Strategy 09.16.15

Markets

The drama surrounding this week’s FOMC meeting is unprecedented in recent memory, with the picture complicated by the recent market turbulence that may see the central bank hold off on raising rates. Many investors are hesitant to make big trades ahead of the decision, and U.S. economic data published on Tuesday did little to show which way the Fed will swing. While raising rates will almost certainly send waves through equity markets, not moving will likely keep the guessing game – and accompanying stock gyrations – alive for weeks to come. U.S. futures are cautious on the upcoming decision: Dow -0.1%. S&P -0.2%. Nasdaq -0.1%.

Today’s Economic Calendar

7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 Consumer Price Index
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital

PTG Trading

Yesterday’s trend up move matched in swing magnitude Friday’s rally…This is called “symmetry” defined as “similarity or likeness in swing”. Using symmetry, traders can accurately calculate projections (not make predictions, which many like to do) for price targets…It’s Math NOT Magic.

Price have achieved or exceeded projected targets in prior Session, so today may unfold as a consolidation day as Mr. Market awaits tomorrow’s Fed Announcement on Interest Rates.

Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Today we will classify as NEUTRAL/”IFFY” SPILL..It is “too close to call” for directional influence…Though yesterday’s move was strong and methodical, targets have been reached, so the SPILL can tilt in either direction.

Odds of 3D Rally > 10 = 82% (achieved); Odds of Rally > 20 = 54% (achieved); Average Range = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.75; Possible HOD = 1980 (Penetration Level); Possible LOD = 1950.75 (3D CPZ)

***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.

Click Here

Today’s Hypotheses: December (Z) Contract

*****The levels outlined below are more general framework within a larger range…They are to be used are reference prices from which to consider trade opportunities, not hard trade levels.

Scenario 1: Price is currently trading sideways in overnight and pre-open activity. IF price can hold above 1962 SPOT, THEN continued consolidation with upside lean is anticipated for today’s Session. Further strength targets 1978.75 – 1983.00 STAT X Zone.

Scenario 2: Should a pullback develop, anticipation is for relatively shallow decline, given yesterday’s strength…IF price violates and converts 1962 SPOT, THEN downside levels to be mindful of for buy response are: 1959.50…1954.25…1950.75.

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

 

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS