Trade Strategy 3.12.24 | Polaris Trading Group for Stocks and Futures Traders

Markets (Top Stories)

Headline annual U.S. inflation is expected to have further cooled in January, although sticky prices for services are seen bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to push out possible interest rate cuts.

Economists project that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) decelerated to 2.9% over the year-ago period last month, down from the prior reading of 3.4%. When compared to December, the measure is estimated to have slowed to 0.2% from 0.3%.

Stripping out volatile items like food and energy, the inflation gauge is anticipated to have eased to 3.7% year-on-year and remain unchanged at 0.3% month-on-month.

The Fed has said that it wants to receive more evidence that the pace of price gains is “sustainably” moving towards its 2% target before starting to bring borrowing costs down from more than two-decade highs. The comment, which has been reiterated by Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell, has all but dashed already waning hopes that the Fed would roll out rate reductions early this year.

But Powell has remained largely optimistic that the U.S. economy is on course for a so-called “soft landing” — a scenario in which inflation is successfully quelled without sparking a broader downturn in either growth or the labor market.

Source: investing.com

Economic Calendar

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

S&P 500

Contract Rollover: Front Month June (M)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Morning weakness saw price decline to PTG’s projected initial target zone (5160 – 5155) as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 3.11.24. Recovery rally during afternoon session pushed price back to 5195 Key Line in the Sand (LIS) for the day. Range was 50 handles on 1.876M contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3: Key driver for today is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as referenced in the above section. What is important to traders is not the actual number, but Mr. Market’s reaction. PTG will make no “predictions” although we will always be “prepared” to whatever market opportunities are presented. Simple, but effective plan.

As always, our tactical trade plan remains unchanged…Stay in alignment with dominant intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5195, initially targets 5215 – 5225 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5195, initially targets 5175 – 5165 zone.

PVA High Edge = 5189 PVA Low Edge = 5173 Prior POC = 5178

PTG 3 Day Cycle

EXCLUSIVE OFFER

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

Range Projections (ES) June 2024 (M)

BULL ATR Range Projection >>> 5243
BEAR ATR Range Projection >>> 5150

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: Morning weakness saw price decline to PTG’s projected initial target zone (18165 – 18135) as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 3.11.24. Recovery rally during afternoon session pushed price back to 18300 Key Line in the Sand (LIS) for the day. Range was 171 handles on 570k contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

As always, our tactical trade plan remains unchanged…Stay in alignment with dominant intra-day forces. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18300, initially targets 18355 – 18385 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18300, initially targets 18230 – 18185 zone.

PVA High Edge = 18249 PVA Low Edge = 18185 Prior POC = 18229

Range Projections (NQ) June 2024 (M)

BULL ATR Range Projection >>> 18528
BEAR ATR Range Projection >>> 18031

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN