Markets
Investors are dumping risk in markets all over the world as an equity selloff takes hold following a tweet from President Trump that threatened to upend trade talks with China. With discussions moving “too slowly,” tariffs on $200B worth of China-made goods will rise from 10% to 25% by the end of this week, and a similar levy on another $325B could be placed on China imports “shortly.” The Shanghai Composite tumbled 5.6% on the news, Europe is down 2%at midday and Dow futures are priced for an over 500 point plunge at the open, marking the biggest single-day decline of the year for U.S. stocks
In Asia, Japan closed. Hong Kong -2.9%. China -5.6%. India -0.9%.
In Europe, at midday, London closed. Paris -2%. Frankfurt -2%.
Futures at 6:20, Dow -1.9%. S&P -1.7%. Nasdaq -2.2%. Crude -1.2% to $61.17. Gold +0.2% to $1283.40. Bitcoin -1.4% to $5630.
Ten-year Treasury Yield -5 bps to 2.48%
(Source: Seeking Alpha)
Economic Calendar
6:00Fed’s Evans Speech
9:30Fed’s Harker: Economic Outlook
12:30 PMTD Ameritrade IMX
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S&P 500
Today is Cycle Day 3 …Globex opening down gap has pushed price to statistical low cycle range levels. Price has rebounded back above Cycle Day 1 Low fulfilling Positive 3 Day Cycle statistic.
Expectation for increased volatility clearly is a given, although a bit tougher for direction. We’ll remain flexible and let Mr. Market be our guide. Stay focused on “core” structural setups.
CD3 Range High = 2912.25 CD3 Range Low = 2989.00 CD3 Range Avg = 28.75
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 2895, THEN initial upside target back above 2901 Cycle Day 1 Low. Conversion of this level to upper support further projects 2904.50 – 2908.25.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 2895, THEN initial downside target 2889 – 2886 zone. Conversion of this zone to lower resistance opens trap door measuring 2877 handle.
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 2908.25; LOD ATR Range Projection: 2893.00; Cycle Day 1 Low: 2901.00; 3 Day Central Pivot: 2930.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 2930.00; 10 Day Average True Range 24.72; VIX: 18.12
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3…Globex opening down gap has pushed price to statistical low cycle range levels. Price has rebounded back above Cycle Day 1 Low fulfilling Positive 3 Day Cycle statistic.
Expectation for increased volatility clearly is a given, although a bit tougher for direction. We’ll remain flexible and let Mr. Market be our guide. Stay focused on “core” structural setups.
CD3 Range High = 7761.50 CD3 Range Low = 7715.75 CD3 Range Avg = 86.50
Scenario 1: IF Bulls hold bid above 7695, THEN initial upside potential targets 7720 – 7725 zone.
Scenario 2: IF Bears hold offer below 7695, THEN initial downside targets 7682.25 – 7657.50 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 7761.50; LOD ATR Range Projection: 7715.75; Cycle Day 1 Low: 7682.25; 3 Day Central Pivot: 7873.00; 3 Day Cycle Target: 7805.00; 10 Day Average True Range: 94.15; VIX: 18.12
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN