Markets
U.S. stock futures hugged the flatline overnight before the final trading session of 2020, with investors looking to bid farewell to a pandemic-stricken year and pop open the champagne for breakfast.
While trading desks will be lightly staffed, the stock market, as well as energy and gold futures, will be open for a full trading session on New Year’s Eve, though the bond market will close up shop a little early at 2 p.m. ET. It’s been a crazy past 12 months for equities, which started the year at records, followed by a bear market, then another record high.
The S&P 500 is up 15.5% for the year and the Dow has advanced 6.6%, while the Nasdaq has soared more than 43%. Perhaps even more notable, the small-cap Russell 2000 has gained nearly 19% YTD.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims
10:30 EIA Natural Gas Inventory
4:30 PM Money Supply
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Pre-New Year slowdown kept range narrow and volumes low. Range was 21.75 handles on 738k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): 3 Day Cycle Statistics have been fulfilled, so all that is needed for Bulls is to simply hold bid for today’s session. Light trading activity is expected with perhaps some closing “window-dressing”. As such there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3725, initially targets 3733 – 3738 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3725, initially targets 3716 – 3714 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3733 PVA Low Edge = 3725 Prior POC = 3732
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3746; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3698; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3723; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3747; 10 Day Average True Range 31; VIX: 23
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is trading within prior Value Area in light overnight activity. Prior range was 89.25 handles on 331k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 12872 PVA Low Edge = 12840 Prior POC = 12855
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 12855, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12872 – 12895 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 12855, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12840 – 12820 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12965; LOD ATR Range Projection: 12732; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12835; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12900; 10 Day Average True Range: 132; VIX: 23
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN