Markets
While the S&P 500 is coming off its first losing week in three, the market is going into the final week of February with solid gains. The Dow and S&P 500 have already climbed more than 5% this month, the Nasdaq advanced 6.2% and the small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed with a gain of 9.3%. Some fears of rapidly rising bond yields are still settling in as U.S. stock index futures point to another weak open for today’s session: Dow -0.7%; S&P 500 -1.1%; Nasdaq -1.5%.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:00 Leading Indicators
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Morning Session strength gave way to Afternoon Session weakness as price oscillated within a wide range, closing near low of day. Range was 55.50 handles on 1.497M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3
This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price is currently below Cycle Day 1 Low (3880.50). Bulls will need to recover this level, otherwise risk a second consecutive failed cycle. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
1.) Price sustains a bid above 3880, initially targets 3890 – 3900 zone.
2.) Price sustains an offer below 3880, initially targets 3865 – 3860 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Statistic covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 3928 PVA Low Edge = 3908 Prior POC = 3920
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3894; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3882; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3912; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3912; 10 Day Average True Range 32; VIX: 24
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Price is currently trading below prior value zone and Cycle Day 1 Low (13468). Prior range was 194 handles on 509k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
PVA High Edge = 13663 PVA Low Edge = 13550 Prior POC = 13593
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13468, THEN initial upside estimate targets 13535 – 13565 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13468, THEN initial downside estimate targets 13403 – 13385 zone.
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2021 (H) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13521; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13472; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13633; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13762; 10 Day Average True Range: 157; VIX: 24
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN