Trade Strategy 8.31.21

Posted on by August 31, 2021

Markets

A winning August
 
The calls of a stock market melt-up are getting louder as the major averages posted another round of solid gains on Monday. The S&P 500 has rallied more than 20% this year after scoring its 53rd record close in Monday’s session and is set to close out its seventh consecutive winning month later today. In fact, the benchmark index has scaled the big wall of worry without seeing a 5% pullback for all of 2021.
 
Adding to the sentiment, U.S. stock index futures climbed higher overnight: Dow +0.2%; S&P 500 +0.2%; Nasdaq +0.4%.
 

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
9:00 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Consumer Confidence
3:00 PM Farm Prices

\https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price fulfilled 3 Day Cycle Statistic as Mutual Fund Monday kicked into gear with opening bull gap. Prior Range was 33.75 handles on 938k contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4506. Price punched above PH (4534.50) during overnight activity, but could not hold bid. With price now trading below PH (4534.50) early lean should be in alignment with CD1 normal. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4520, initially targets 4530 – 4535 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4520, initially targets 4512 – 4503 zone.

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 4534       PVA Low Edge = 4520        Prior POC = 4530

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2021 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4560; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4503; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4497; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4556; 10 Day Average True Range  39; VIX: 16.50

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 15537. Prior Range was 198 handles on 412k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

PVA High Edge = 15617       PVA Low Edge = 15544      Prior POC = 15608

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 15575, THEN initial upside estimate targets 15608 – 15618 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 15575, THEN initial downside estimate targets 15545 – 15535 zone.

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2021 (U) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 15742; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15506; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15408; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15800; 10 Day Average True Range: 170; VIX: 16.50

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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