Markets

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

8:30 Goods and Services Trade
8:55 Redbook Chain Store Sales
1:00 PM Results of $58B, 3-Year Note Auction

1https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

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S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3):  Positive 3-day Statistic was fulfilled, although prior session had weak underpinnings, as price “waffled” throughout the day and ended with selling into the closing bell. Prior range was 51.75 handles on 1.422M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Today begins a new cycle, with the Average Decline measuring 4484, which is more than in-place, as price is trading near low end of range during overnight activity. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

1.) Price sustains a bid above 4475, initially targets 4490 – 4495 zone. 

2.) Price sustains an offer below 4475, initially targets 4460 – 4455 zone. 

*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

PVA High Edge = 4508       PVA Low Edge = 4483        Prior POC = 4495

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) March 2022 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4573; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4385; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4495; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4525; 10 Day Average True Range;  111; VIX: 23

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Average Decline for CD1 measures 14716 which is currently in-place, as price weakness continues to be the dominant theme. Prior range was 295 handles on 557k contracts exchanged. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 14512, THEN initial upside estimate targets 14580 – 14600 zone.

Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 14512, THEN initial downside estimate targets 14456– 14431 zone.

PVA High Edge = 15168       PVA Low Edge = 15022     Prior POC = 15104

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) March 2022 (H) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 14763; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14628; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14657; 3 Day Cycle Target: 14718; 10 Day Average True Range: 530; VIX: 23

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN