Markets
Economic Calendar
8:30 Empire State Mfg Survey
10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index
10:50 Fed’s Waller Speech
4:00 PM Treasury International Capital
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
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S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Gap open left little doubt who was in control on this cycle day. Bulls held “ball-control” all session closing near highs for the day/week. Range was 74.50 handles on 1.223M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2 (CD2): There is more room for price to achieve upside objectives, though normal for today’s CD2 is for some bullish consolidation, given the current theme. BIG earnings week for the Retailers notes Morgan Stanley: Retail Revisions. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4255, initially targets 4275 – 4280 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4255, initially targets 4240 – 4235 zone.
*****3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
PVA High Edge = 4263 PVA Low Edge = 4218 Prior POC = 4230
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4318; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4215; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4221; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4322; 10 Day Average True Range; 63; VIX: 21
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 2 (CD2)…Prior session was a trend day as gap higher open left little doubt for the day’s rhythm to end the day/week near highs. Normal for CD2 is for two-way balancing action. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustain a bid above 13495, THEN initial upside estimate targets 12575 – 12585 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustain an offer below 13495, THEN initial downside estimate targets 12450– 12420 zone.
PVA High Edge = 13583 PVA Low Edge = 13415 Prior POC = 13565
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2022 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 13628; LOD ATR Range Projection: 13047; 3 Day Central Pivot: 13125; 3 Day Cycle Target: 13612; 10 Day Average True Range: 337; VIX: 21
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN