Markets
The Dow Jones slipped further into a bear market and the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level in almost two years on Tuesday, while the Nasdaq Composite inched higher, but is still off nearly 32% YTD
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
10:00 Pending Home Sales
10:00 State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:10 Fed’s Bullard Speech
10:15 Jerome Powell Speech
11:00 Fed’s Bowman Speech
11:00 Survey of Business Uncertainty
1:00 PM Results of $36B, 7-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM Fed’s Evans Speech
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
***New: PTG Trading Room Chat Log’s Link
10:30 EIA Petroleum Inventories
U.S. crude inventories rose by 4 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 23. That compared with a build of 6.0 million barrels reported by the API in the previous week. Economists were expecting an increase of about 333,000 barrels.
Crude prices recovered from a soft start to the week on bets of supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Ian is expected to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday.
The U.S. offshore regulator said that 190,358 barrels per day of production was shut down in the Gulf of Mexico on hurricane disruptions.
The API data also showed that gasoline inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week, and distillate stocks rose by 438,000 barrels.
The official government inventory report due Wednesday is expected to show weekly U.S. crude supplies rose by 443,000 barrels last week.
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets did produce a Positive 3-Day Cycle before the decline began, which pushed price down past projected range decline. Prior range was 98 handles on 2.898M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3659, which has been fulfilled during prior session. Price may need to retest previous low before the next rally can unfold, though not required since cycle low objective has been achieved. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3635, initially targets 3655 – 3660 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3635, initially targets 3620 – 3615 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3700 PVA Low Edge = 3636 Prior POC = 3648
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3697; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3590; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3693; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3703; 10 Day Average True Range 85; VIX: 34
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Today is Cycle Day 1 (CD1)…Three-day Cycle Statistic was fulfilled during prior session before the decline began driving price to lower range projected target (11275). Markets may need to retest prior low before the next rally can unfold, though not a cycle requirement. As such, there are two estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: IF Bulls sustains bid above 11220, THEN initial upside estimate targets 11280– 11300 zone.
Bear Scenario: IF Bears sustains offer below 11220, THEN initial downside estimate targets 11170 – 11140 zone.
PVA High Edge = 11455 PVA Low Edge = 11233 Prior POC = 11280
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2022 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 11445; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11088; 3 Day Central Pivot: 11387; 3 Day Cycle Target: 11460; 10 Day Average True Range: 304; VIX: 34
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN