Markets (Top Stories)
Investors await the latest inflation data, which will be released later in the day, for clues on the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy and progress so far on the disinflation process. February consumer prices are expected to rise 0.4% M/M and 6% Y/Y, which would mark the smallest increase since October 2021.
Bigger picture: Markets are now pricing in a 73.1% chance of a 25-bp hike at the Fed meeting next week, and 26.9% probability of no hike at all, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Just a week earlier, markets were seeing a 69.8% chance of a 50-bp hike and 30.2% probability of a 25-bp hike. The shift in expectations comes amid a moderating job growth rate and contagion fears over recent failures in the banking sector.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Consumer Price Index
10:00 Quarterly Services Report
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three Day Cycle Statistic was fulfilled during RTH although selling pressure dominated the trading landscape. Prior day’s range was 132 handles on 2.375M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 3907.50 which has been fulfilled. BIG Event for today is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). We’ll continue to focus on where we make our profits >>> PTG Trade Strategies. Everything else is a distraction. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 3900, initially targets 3940 – 3950 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 3900, initially targets 3855 – 3850 zone.
PVA High Edge = 3927 PVA Low Edge = 3884 Prior POC = 3917
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 3960; LOD ATR Range Projection: 3846; 3 Day Central Pivot: 3936; 3 Day Cycle Target: 3965; 10 Day Average True Range 73; VIX: 26
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Three Day Cycle Statistic was fulfilled during RTH although selling pressure dominated the trading landscape. Prior day’s range was 416 handles on 651k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 11969. BIG Event for today is the Consumer Price Index (CPI). We’ll continue to focus on where we make our profits >>> PTG Trade Strategies. Everything else is a distraction. As such, estimated scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 12080, initially targets 12225 – 12240 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 12080, initially targets 11930 – 11920 zone.
PVA High Edge = 12190 PVA Low Edge = 12030 Prior POC = 12152
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) June 2023 (M) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 12320; LOD ATR Range Projection: 11882; 3 Day Central Pivot: 12113; 3 Day Cycle Target: 12304; 10 Day Average True Range: 265; VIX: 26
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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