Markets (Top Stories)
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets held critical Line-In-Sand Level (4375) as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 6.27.23. Once price cleared 4390 handle, then an aggressive rally unfolded, pushing up 2 SD, exceeding 10 day average true range, fulfilling CD3 Penetration Targets, and securing a Positive 3 Day Cycle. Prior range was 53 handles on 1.433M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Bulls have the “momentum-ball” and it will be theirs to lose. Average Decline for a “normal” CD1 measures 4381. We’ll be monitoring today whether the bulls can maintain ball control or if yesterday’s rally was a better selling opportunity. Higher low stabilization trade would be warranted to confirm the recent rally. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4405, initially targets 4415 – 4420 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4405, initially targets 4395 – 4390 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4414 PVA Low Edge = 4385 Prior POC = 4419
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4457; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4366; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4395; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4470; 10 Day Average True Range 48; VIX: 14
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Markets held critical Line-In-Sand Level (14875) as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 6.27.23. Once price cleared 14950 handle, then an aggressive rally unfolded, fulfilling 15120 – 15150 Target Zone and securing a Positive 3 Day Cycle. Prior range was 277 handles on 641k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Bulls have the “momentum-ball” and it will be theirs to lose. Average Decline for a “normal” CD1 measures 14969. We’ll be monitoring today whether the bulls can maintain ball control or if yesterday’s rally was a better selling opportunity. Higher low stabilization trade would be warranted to confirm the recent rally. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15010, initially targets 15100 – 15120 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15010, initially targets 14970 – 14950 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15050 PVA Low Edge = 14687 Prior POC = 14917
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) Sept 2023 (U) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15304; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14830; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15027; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15294; 10 Day Average True Range: 262; VIX: 14
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN