Markets (Top Stories)
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive Three-Day Cycle Statistic was fulfilled as price traded above CD1 Low (4494) during RTH. Prior range was 47 handles on 1.369M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 4475 handle. Today is FOMC with Presser at 2:30. Market is back to a more neutral level at the 5-day POC (4490), so we’ll be anticipating relatively quiet two-way trade ahead of today’s decision. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4490, initially targets 4505 – 4510 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4490, initially targets 4475 – 4470 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4499 PVA Low Edge = 4473 Prior POC = 4491
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:
Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet > > Cycle Day 1 (CD1)
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4530; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4450; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4503; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4545; 10 Day Average True Range 42; VIX: 14
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Positive Three-Day Cycle Statistic was fulfilled as price traded above CD1 Low (15356) during RTH. Prior range was 193 handles on 544k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline for CD1 measures 15210 handle. Today is FOMC with Presser at 2:30. Market is back to a more neutral level at the 5-day POC (15385), so we’ll be anticipating relatively quiet two-way trade ahead of today’s decision. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 15375, initially targets 15430 – 15460 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 15375, initially targets 15320 – 15300 zone.
PVA High Edge = 15368 PVA Low Edge = 15253 Prior POC = 15283
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15574; LOD ATR Range Projection: 15175; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15417; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15656; 10 Day Average True Range: 212; VIX: 14
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN