Markets (Top Stories)
Deadlock continues
The budgetary standoff in the U.S. doesn’t look like it will abate soon, raising the likelihood of the first government shutdown since 2019, as hardline Republicans continue to hold off on agreeing to a stopgap spending bill. Current funding for federal operations will end on October 1. If Congress fails to reach a spending deal by then, thousands of federal workers will be furloughed without pay.
Source: SeekingAlpha.com
Economic Calendar
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
10:30 Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Failed Three-Day Cycle as price could not recover previous CD1 Low 4443, as selling momentum and “risk-off” mind-set was to overwhelming for bulls to overcome. Prior range was 41 handles on 1.650M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 4364 which has already been exceeded as price is currently trading below Prior Low (4357) pre RTH. Bulls will need to form a greater defense to stem any further slide. August low has been violated and next BIG test is the 50 Week (yes week) average at 4346 handle. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4355, initially targets 4375 – 4380 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4355, initially targets 4345 – 4340 zone.
PVA High Edge = 4394 PVA Low Edge = 4372 Prior POC = 4380
Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 4395; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4331; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4410; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4388; 10 Day Average True Range 48; VIX: 18
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Failed Three-Day Cycle as price could not recover previous CD1 Low 15127, as selling momentum and “risk-off” mind-set was to overwhelming for bulls to overcome. Prior range was 191 handles on 617k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
This leads us into Cycle Day 1 (CD1): Average Decline measures 14915 which has already been exceeded as price is currently trading at CD1 range low at 14821 handle. Bulls will need to form a greater defense to stem any further slide. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 14855, initially targets 14940 – 14945 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 14855, initially targets 14825 – 14800 zone.
PVA High Edge = 14936 PVA Low Edge = 14865 Prior POC = 14921
Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2023 (Z) Contract
HOD ATR Range Projection: 15026; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14716; 3 Day Central Pivot: 15030; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15087; 10 Day Average True Range: 230; VIX: 18
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee
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