Trade Strategy 9.27.23

Markets (Top Stories)

Source: SeekingAlpha.com

Economic Calendar

https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/


S&P 500

***Written Tuesday evening for Wednesday’s trading for contribution to MrTopStep’s “The Opening Print” publication.

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Aberrant session for CD2 as liquidation selling drove price down to 4300 zone. Prior range was 76 handles on 1.673M contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price will need to recover 4338 handle to avert a failed three-day cycle. Also, many technicians are looking for a time and price cycle low. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 4320, initially targets 4335 – 4340 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 4320, initially targets 4290 – 4285 zone.

PVA High Edge = 4338       PVA Low Edge = 4307         Prior POC = 4315

*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 91% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.

For more detailed information for both bullish and bearish projected targets, please visit: PTG 3 Day Cycle and/or reference the Cycle Spreadsheet below:

Link to access full Cycle Spreadsheet  > > Cycle Day 3 (CD3)

Range Projections and Key Levels (ES) December 2023 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 4370; LOD ATR Range Projection: 4268; 3 Day Central Pivot: 4359; 3 Day Cycle Target: 4392; 10 Day Average True Range  53; VIX: 19

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2 (CD2): Aberrant session for CD2 as liquidation selling drove price down to 14670 handle. Prior range was 282 handles on 659k contracts exchanged. 

 …Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

This leads us into Cycle Day 3 (CD3): Price will need to recover 14782 handle to avert a failed three-day cycle. As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 14725, initially targets 14850 – 14860 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 14725, initially targets 14600 – 14590 zone.

PVA High Edge = 14789       PVA Low Edge = 14680     Prior POC = 14764

Range Projections and Key Levels (NQ) December 2023 (Z) Contract

HOD  ATR Range Projection: 14948; LOD ATR Range Projection: 14493; 3 Day Central Pivot: 14863; 3 Day Cycle Target: 15073; 10 Day Average True Range: 235; VIX: 19

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –Bruce Lee

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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