Markets
Equity futures for Japan, Australia and Hong Kong all rose by at least 1% with contracts for the Nikkei 225 rising more than 2.5%. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 had its best day since November 2022, while the Nasdaq advanced 3.1%.
The rally was driven by US jobless claims that showed fewer people applied for unemployment benefits than expected. The data alleviated concerns about the labor market after worse-than-expected jobs data on Friday last week fanned fears of recession that rippled through global markets.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Economic Calendar
S&P 500
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Market’s were clamoring for a “relief-rally” and Jobless Claims Report provided the bulls cover that they desperately needed, after multi-day’s of selling hammering the markets.
Price probed below our LIS (5195) in a classic “Look Below and Fail Reversal” (see image below). CD1 Violation Level stopped the decline as buyers stepped-in and reclaimed 5195 level, which was a Buy Signal. Bulls maintained control overnight as buying was buoyed with a positive claims report. From then on, it was “Risk-On” non-stop buying to the top of the four-day range. Range was 179 handles on 1.829M contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Normally we would be anticipating MATD rhythms for this cycle day, and we still do, although the challenge is going to be how the market will close out this week. Bulls want to notch a positive reversal week, while Beas are looking to keep the pressure.
Average 3-Day Range is currently a whopping 154 handles, with expectation of volatility remaining elevated. Risk Management is of paramount importance in this environment. Being FRYDAY, it is “Capital Preservation Day.” As such, we’ll defer to Mr. Market to be our guide for this session.
Know Thy Plan! Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5345, initially targets 5375 – 5385 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5345, initially targets 5320 – 5310 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5360 PVA Low Edge = 5287 Prior POC = 5344
PTG 3 Day Cycle
EXCLUSIVE OFFER
*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.
ES Chart
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Price surpassed all CD1 “normal” levels and established a new cycle low at 17741.75. Range was 851 handles on 649k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Normally we would be anticipating MATD rhythms for this cycle day, and we still do, although the challenge is going to be how the market will close out this week. Bulls want to notch a positive reversal week, while Beas are looking to keep the pressure.
Average 3-Day Range is currently a whopping 697 handles, with expectation of volatility remaining elevated. Risk Management is of paramount importance in this environment. Being FRYDAY, it is “Capital Preservation Day.” As such, we’ll defer to Mr. Market to be our guide for this session.
Know Thy Plan! Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 18520, initially targets 18708 – 18717 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 18520, initially targets 18425 – 18360 zone.
PVA High Edge = 18572 PVA Low Edge = 17202 Prior POC = 18396
NQ Chart
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.
This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN