Trade Strategy 8.14.24

Markets

Stocks rose and bond yields fell after the latest US inflation reading fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve would be able to implement its widely anticipated interest-rate cut in September.

Investors are focusing on Wednesday’s US consumer price index, which might help assess whether the Fed has enough flexibility to provide a soft landing for the economy. The recent surge in crude oil prices has also focused attention on producer-price data, which will be released later Tuesday as an indicator of pipeline inflationary threats.

Source: Financial Juice

Economic Calendar

 S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Opening Gap higher set this cycle day bullish up trend in-motion, settling nears highs of the day, fulfilling all CD1 projected targets. Bulls returned in a big way recovering lost ground from last week’s dramatic sell-down. Enthusiasm for tomorrow’s CPI print reverberated throughout the market’s today. Range was 93 handles on 1.197M contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2 

This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Market’s are on the “risk-on” offensive leading into today’s CPI print. It better not disappoint! Cycle Targets have already been achieved during prior session, so we’ll enter today with a bit of caution, as potential for high volatility spike in either direction remains elevated. As such, we’ll defer to Mr. Market to be our guide for this session.

Know Thy Plan! Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5445, initially targets 5490 – 5505 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5445, initially targets 5430 – 5425 zone.

PVA High Edge = 5461      PVA Low Edge = 5413         Prior POC = 5445

PTG 3 Day Cycle

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*****The 3 Day Cycle has a 90% probability of fulfilling Positive Cycle Statistics covering 12 years of recorded tracking history.  

ES Chart

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Opening Gap higher set this cycle day bullish up trend in-motion, settling nears highs of the day, fulfilling all CD1 projected targets. Bulls returned in a big way recovering lost ground from last week’s dramatic sell-down. Enthusiasm for tomorrow’s CPI print reverberated throughout the market’s today. Range was 494 handles on 489k contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2 

This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Market’s are on the “risk-on” offensive leading into today’s CPI print. It better not disappoint! Cycle Targets have already been achieved during prior session, so we’ll enter today with a bit of caution, as potential for high volatility spike in either direction remains elevated. As such, we’ll defer to Mr. Market to be our guide for this session.

Know Thy Plan! Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 19070, initially targets 19190 – 19245 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 19070, initially targets 18968 – 18910 zone.

PVA High Edge = 19121       PVA Low Edge = 18878         Prior POC = 19068

NQ Chart

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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