All-time contract high in the S&P 500…Continued strength in economically sensitive sectors…technology on a bullish role…Mutual Fund buying spree all help to propel prices upwards. Price high our projected target of 2107.50 outlined in Friday’s Daily Trade Strategy 02.20.15. We will need to see some follow-through bullish trading to have increased confidence of sustainability. If price retreats and trades back down into last weeks trading range would be a negative development. Violation of 2080 handle on a daily closing basis would place current bullish condition on bear notice.
Today is Cycle Day 3 (CD3)…Initial cycle targets have already been achieved, though additional expansion levels remain high potential. Odds of Rally > 10 = 82%; Odds of Rally > 20 = 54%; Average Range on CD3 = 17.75; Max Average Range = 21.50; Possible High = 2113.75 based upon average penetration of CD1 high; Possible Low = 2076.25 based upon average violation of CD2 low.
***Note: The odds highlighted are NOT predictions or trade recommendations, rather a guide based upon historical observed occurrences.
Today Hypotheses:
Scenario 1: IF price can hold above 2100 Central Pivot and THEN clear and convert PDH (2108.75)…there is a 60% chance of price expanding to 2113.75 Cycle Target followed by TargetMaster Range Breakout level 2119.00.
Scenario 2: Failure to convert PDH (2108.75) suggests a period of “back n fill” of the breakout…Price will need to find continued responsive buyers at or above 2100 to keep the breakout intact. Violation of 2100 targets 2096.00 – 2094.25 3D CPZ…Below this zone measures 2088 – 2086 zone. If price violates PDL (2082.25) lower levels to target are 2076.25 down to 2070.50 Xtremes.
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
Habitude Nine
I will identify my mistakes and learn from them. I am optimistic, realistic and honest. I will not make up stories about the good or bad things that occurred in the past or are happening now. I admit when something is not working. My optimism gives me faith and courage. I will not fall prey to blame and fear.