Trade Strategy 9.20.24 | Polaris Trading Group for Stocks and Futures Traders

S&P 500

Important Note: We have begun publishing the PTG Trading Room Daily RECAP which you should be receiving at the end of each trading day. This publication is a more detailed review of how the trading unfolded throughout the day from our viewpoint. It is an “educational” complimentary companion to be used in conjunction with the Daily Trade Strategy. It continues to be “work-in-progress”, so please offer feedback as to content, style and relevance. We are always striving to make PTG Products and Services the very best in-class.

All Risk Disclosures found throughout this website applies equally to the daily recap publication.

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Price rallied to fulfill the 5790 cycle target on a True Gap higher which held throughout the day, on the heels of a 50 bps rate cut by Uncle Jay. Please review Trading Room RECAP 9.19.24. for more details. Range was 106 handles on 1.491M contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Price has fulfilled Cycle Target (5790) during prior session. The BIG Event for today is Triple Options Expiration (TOPEX) and as such we could see increased volatility, given options and futures contracts are expiring. Traders and institutional investors adjust or close positions to avoid settlement obligations. This can create large swings in the market, especially in the final hours of the trading day, which is known as the “witching hour.” It is estimated that $5.1 Trillion in options will be expiring. That’s a lot of shekels!

Normal for Cycle Day 2 (CD2) would be for MATD rhythmic consolidation of prior session’s bullish true gap. Given that cycle objective has been fulfilled with TOPEX being the dominant theme of the day, we will continue to conduct our daily trading as usual, focusing on core structural patterns with favorable reward-to-risk opportunities.

Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5775, initially targets 5785 – 5790 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5775, initially targets 5760 – 5755 zone.

PVA High Edge = 5785 PVA Low Edge = 5765 Prior POC = 5775

ES Chart (Profile)

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Price rallied to fulfill the 20095 cycle target on a True Gap higher which held throughout the day, on the heels of a 50 bps rate cut by Uncle Jay. Please review Trading Room RECAP 9.19.24. for more details. Range was 565 handles on 562k contracts exchanged.

…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2

This leads us into Cycle Day 2: Price has fulfilled Cycle Target (20095) during prior session. The BIG Event for today is Triple Options Expiration (TOPEX) and as such we could see increased volatility, given options and futures contracts are expiring. Traders and institutional investors adjust or close positions to avoid settlement obligations. This can create large swings in the market, especially in the final hours of the trading day, which is known as the “witching hour.” It is estimated that $5.1 Trillion in options will be expiring. That’s a lot of shekels!

Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 20015, initially targets 20130 – 20190 zone.

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 20015, initially targets 19985 – 19959 zone.

PVA High Edge = 20170 PVA Low Edge = 20015 Prior POC = 20128

NQ Chart (Target Master)

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN