Today’s market session reflects a steady consolidation within the 5780 to 5750 range outlined in the prior Daily Trade Strategy Briefing 9.23.24, following the third day post-FOMC rate cut.

The pre-RTH and early RTH hours saw price activity oscillating within the defined range, with a focus on buy-side dips near the Value Area Low (VAL). Despite some attempts, bulls struggled to clear and convert the 5780-5785 zone into solid support for a higher push.

The afternoon session continued in a coiling or contraction phase, as outlined earlier, with price stabilizing around the 5772 POC. The day’s lack of volatility and directional bias indicates a balanced demand-supply environment, suggesting that an expansion phase could soon follow once the range breaks decisively. The small buy imbalance into the close may signal some bullish leanings but remains within the context of consolidation.

Key takeaways include:

• Range-bound action between 5750-5780
• Bulls need to clear the 5785 level to initiate a stronger upward move
• Contraction phase likely to give way to expansion, possibly in the next session.

 

Expansion Trigger Level?

The key level to watch for an expansion trigger would be 5785 on the upside. This was noted as a resistance zone that bulls have struggled to clear.

If price action breaks above 5785 and holds, it could act as a trigger for expansion and a potential rally to higher levels, with upside targets around 5800-5820 or higher, depending on momentum.

On the downside, if price breaks below 5740, which was the lower boundary of the overnight/pre-RTH range, it could trigger a downward expansion, with potential targets around 5720-5700.

So, the critical trigger levels for expansion:

• Upside: Break and hold above 5785.
• Downside: Break below 5740.