S&P 500
The prior session marked a pivotal Cycle Day 3, where early optimism in the pre-RTH rally was quickly overshadowed by intensifying global tensions. A ballistic missile barrage on Israel significantly escalated the Middle East conflict, sending Crude Oil soaring and triggering a swift reversal in market sentiment.
The session’s Line in the Sand (LIS) at 5800 proved crucial, as price plowed through this level, signaling the onset of a “hard sell-down.” The aggressive downward pressure fulfilled the lower target at the 5730 zone, as outlined in the Daily Trade Strategy 10.1.24 This sharp breakdown punctuated the session’s bearish tone, closing out the day with a firm rejection of prior support zones. Range was 89 handles on 1.854M contracts exchanged.
Key Takeaways:
- Middle East conflict escalates, driving Crude Oil higher.
- LIS 5800 breached, leading to aggressive sell-off.
- Breakdown target at 5730 achieved, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
As the market transitions to the next cycle, all eyes are on key support levels and potential geopolitical developments, which continue to shape near-term volatility.
For a more detailed recap of prior trading session click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 10.1.24
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
The transition to Cycle Day 1 Average Decline 5733 was achieved during prior session’s “sell-down”, so all eyes will be on how the market responds to the continuing geo-political tensions. We will mark the 5760 level as today’s Line in the Sand (LIS) as potential for a “relief-rally” should overseas tensions subside, otherwise a continuation liquidation may unfold.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5760, initially targets 5780 – 5785 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5760, initially targets 5740 – 5735 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5773 PVA Low Edge = 5744 Prior POC = 5761
ES Chart (Profile)
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Opening Drive lower set the tone for this session as escalation of the Middle East conflict took center-stage with “risk-off” being the primary theme. Ultimately DTS’ projected lower target zone between 19920 – 19900 was fulfilled. as outlined in prior DTS Briefing 10.1.24. Range was 649 handles on 649k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1
The transition to Cycle Day 1 Average Decline 19891.25 was achieved during prior session’s “sell-down”, so all eyes will be on how the market responds to the continuing geo-political tensions. We will mark the 19975 level as today’s Line in the Sand (LIS) as potential for a “relief-rally” should overseas tensions subside, otherwise a continuation liquidation may unfold.
Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 19975, initially targets 20055– 20128 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 19975, initially targets 19845 – 19825 zone.
PVA High Edge = 20055 PVA Low Edge = 19875 Prior POC = 19925
NQ Chart (Profile)
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
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