Trade Strategy 10.23.24

S&P 500

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive 3-Day Cycle, which means that Price is Greater Than Cycle Day 1 Low on Cycle Day 3 during the RTH Session. To express this in mathematical code: (P > CD1 Low on CD3 ~ RTH). This cycle fulfilled this definition and has a 92.86% statistic of achievement, covering 15 years of tracking. 

Strong as this statistic is, this cycle ending only reached 26.55% of the targeted range for the entire cycle. This reading is indeed weak and a possible “early-warning” that sentiment may be in its early stages of changing.

We will need to monitor closely for next few cycles for a clearer read-through. For now, just be aware that the upside momentum has for the most part weakened, potentially signaling lower sessions ahead. Prior range was 43 handles on 994k contracts exchanged.

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 10.22.24

Check out the link to learn more about the Taylor Cycle and secure your FREE TRIAL.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the objective of seeking a new secure low from which to stage the next rally.

Markets are still in rangebound-mode with lower probes being more pronounced, yet no breakdown. Prior session saw a value shift lower, which supports the weak cycle performance, along with probing the lower edge of the multi-day composite range. Until there is a definitive directional move, expectation is for more of the same rhythms.

Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5880, initially targets 5895 – 5900 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5880, initially targets 5865 – 5860 zone.

PVA High Edge = 5890     PVA Low Edge = 5865         Prior POC = 5880

   ES (Chart Profile)

 

Nasdaq 100 (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 3: Positive 3-Day Cycle statistic was satisfied as price traded above it’s CD1 Low (20320), swinging between the lower 20370 range edge and the upper 20600 range edge, but made zero directional progress. Prior range was 242 handles on 465k contracts exchanged.

 …Transition from Cycle Day 3 to Cycle Day 1

Transition into Cycle Day 1: Today begins a new cycle with the objective of seeking a new secure low from which to stage the next rally.

Current rangebound conditions are not offering traders any clue as to the next breakout. Until there is a definitive directional move, expectation is for more of the same rhythms between these recent levels.

Our discipline of maintaining positioning that is aligned with market forces continues to serve us well, so stay the course.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 20475, initially targets 20550– 20580 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 20475, initially targets 20420 – 20370 zone.

PVA High Edge = 20548      PVA Low Edge = 20430         Prior POC = 20493

NQ Chart (Profile)

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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