Pre-Market & Market Open
- 7:35 AM: PTGDavid shared key links for the day, including:
- PTG Daily Trade Strategy
- Daily Range Calculator
- CFTC Rule 4.41 Disclaimer (reminding traders of the risks involved in futures trading)
- 9:09 AM: PTG officially welcomed Curly Trades as the newest trader. Several members greeted him.
- 9:08 AM: PTGDavid confirmed that charts were online, and traders could access market data.
Early Session – Market Bias & Setup
- Early bullish lean as price traded above VWAP and A4.
- 9:44 AM: PTGDavid noted that the buying momentum had dried up, and price began dripping lower.
- 9:45 AM: Reminder that a “lean” is a directional bias, not an automatic trade—setups must align before execution.
- 9:47 AM: Cautionary note about potential “snappy/trappy” price action, urging traders to stay focused.
- 10:24 AM: Market consolidated within the prior open range, signaling a slower trading environment.
Midday – Pre-Fed Trading
- 11:06 AM: Market remained in a grinding phase ahead of the Fed announcement.
- 11:53 AM: Bullish push ahead of the FOMC press conference, following a typical pre-Fed rhythm.
Fed Announcement & Press Conference (2:00 PM – 3:00 PM)
- 2:01 PM: Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as expected.
- 2:03 PM: CNBC reported that the Fed’s dot plot shifted more hawkish, with four officials now expecting no rate cuts in 2025, up from just one in December.
- 2:05 PM: PTGDavid emphasized that PTG’s strategy remained the same:
- Follow the plan
- Take only high-probability setups
- Manage risk with hard stop-losses
- 2:33 PM – 2:42 PM: PTGDavid shared key takeaways from Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, including:
- Lower GDP projections for 2025
- Labor market remains balanced
- Inflation expectations rising, driven by tariffs
- Powell’s claim that inflation is transitory (a term previously criticized)
- Traders reacted bullishly to Powell’s comments, despite skepticism from PTGDavid and others.
- 2:44 PM: PTGDavid commented on traders buying into Powell’s vague statements, while Bruce F remarked, “How to say nothing but speak a lot.”
Late Session – Cycle Targets & Reversal
- 3:06 PM: PTG’s Cycle Target of 5745 was fulfilled.
- 3:07 PM: Identified the next upside target zone: 5758 – 5762.
- 3:27 PM: Hard reversal followed once cycle targets were reached, catching late buyers off guard.
Market Close – Final Notes
- 3:50 PM: Reported a $1.4 billion Market-on-Close (MOC) sell imbalance, signaling heavy institutional selling.
- 3:59 PM: PTGDavid signed off, confirming he would be back in the morning for another trading session.
Key Takeaways
Early bullish lean faded, leading to choppy price action. Fed announcement triggered volatility, with traders reacting to Powell’s comments. PTG’s cycle target of 5745 was hit before a sharp reversal. $1.4 billion MOC sell imbalance marked the close, adding downside pressure. PTGDavid emphasized risk management, patience, and alignment with dominant market forces.