The trading day began with a quiet, narrow overnight session as traders prepared for battle. PTGDavid established the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 5825, a critical level that would serve as the day’s fulcrum. His primary directive was clear: stay aligned with the dominant force.

The Morning Battle: A Test of Strength

As the market opened, traders faced two possible paths:

• Bullish Scenario: Holding above 5825 would target the 5845-5850 zone.

• Bearish Scenario: Sustained weakness below 5825 would drive prices toward 5800-5795.

With a neutral-to-long lean at the open, David initiated a Crude Oil (CL) OPR Long trade, which quickly hit its first and second targets, moving the stop to breakeven. Momentum favored the bulls—for now.

However, the tide began to shift. A short trade (A10) paid off, hinting at growing weakness. David then adjusted his stance, noting a shift to a neutral/short bias. The cycle framework confirmed it: Cycle Day 1 (CD1) tends to favor declines, with an average target of 5800. This prediction soon played out as price melted below 5825.

By 10:22 AM, the 5800 target was fulfilled, marking a textbook Cycle Day 1 move. The bearish forces had asserted control.

Midday Maneuvers: The Market’s Tug-of-War

As the initial balance ended, the market reached a point of equilibrium. Would buyers step in, or would sellers press their advantage?

A brief bounce attempted to reclaim lost ground but quickly slipped as aggressive sellers smashed bids. David emphasized that downside potential remained, encouraging traders to stay focused on short setups.

Meanwhile, external macro factors loomed large. A headline from ZeroHedge warned that the U.S. Treasury could risk a payment default by August, adding to market uncertainty.

By 11:52 AM, the bearish pressure persisted. David reaffirmed his stance: stay focused on short-side opportunities.

Afternoon Drama: A Brief Reprieve Before the Next Wave

The market reached a key D-Level support, stopping sellers in their tracks. A sharp buy response emerged, aligning with Gamma levels and CD1 range lows, creating a confluence of non-correlated metrics—a textbook reversal zone.

Yet, the recovery attempt was fleeting. By 3:08 PM, David quipped, “The bull is definitely slipping on the soap bar today.” The rally had run out of steam, failing in front of the prior week’s high and the Sunday night breakout zone.

The day concluded with a notable Market-on-Close (MOC) buy imbalance of $1.962 billion, signaling last-minute institutional positioning. 

 

Educational Takeaways from the Session

• Identify Key Levels Early – The LIS (5825) and Cycle Day 1 (5800) were the foundation for the day’s game plan. Marking key levels before the session starts provides a directional roadmap.

• Adapt to Market Shifts – The bias shifted from neutral-long to neutral-short as sellers gained control. Traders must be flexible and responsive to new information.

• Understand Market Cycles – Knowing that CD1 tends to favor declines allowed traders to anticipate and capitalize on the move to 5800. Recognizing cycle tendencies helps set realistic targets.

• Confluence is Key – The strong buy response at the D-Level wasn’t random; it aligned with multiple independent signals (CD1 range low, Gamma, etc.). High-probability trades occur at intersections of strong levels.

• Headlines Matter – News about a potential U.S. Treasury default and upcoming auto tariffs weighed on sentiment. Macro events shape market psychology and should never be ignored.

• MOC Imbalances Can Offer Clues – A large buy imbalance at the close suggests potential positioning for the following day. Institutional activity can provide key signals.

• Know When to Step Away – After executing well throughout the day, David called it quits—because discipline isn’t just about managing trades, but also knowing when to stop trading.

A day of precision, discipline, and adaptation—another lesson-filled session from PTGDavid.