Recap of PTG David’s Market Commentary – April 2

PTG David started the trading session by marking the transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3, noting that the cycle objective (5634) had been satisfied. As a result, the market direction was deemed a “wild-card” for the day.

The primary macroeconomic event influencing the session was the implementation of expected tariffs, referred to as “Liberation Day,” where former President Trump planned to impose reciprocal tariffs to reduce reliance on foreign goods. However, uncertainty loomed as details of the tariffs were yet to be fully disclosed, with the potential for last-minute modifications via presidential announcements or tweets.

David emphasized the importance of following the trading plan, taking high-probability setups, and managing risk with hard stop-losses. He reiterated PTG’s Primary Directive (PD): “Always stay in alignment with the dominant force.”

Market Observations and Trades

• The market opened with volatility and uncertainty, which PTG David saw as beneficial for day traders due to the inefficiencies and price disparities it creates.
• The session initially saw defended prior lows, leading to a shift in alignment towards long trades on dips.
• PTG David highlighted key levels, including a return to the prior midpoint (5647) and executing successful trades in crude oil (@CL) and Nasdaq (@NQ), reaching their first target objectives (TGT 1).
• He referenced the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) as a support level, indicating a bullish structure as long as price remained above VWAP.
• A “Run the Range” type of day was observed, with a bias toward long positions.
• Both crude oil (@CL) and Nasdaq (@NQ) hit their second target objectives (TGT 2), and the market transitioned into a slower “grind” phase.
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• David noted the importance of recognizing when easy trades were over, transitioning into a more strategic market rhythm.
• Midday analysis showed a shift towards consolidation with a long-side bias still intact.
• Upon returning from lunch, PTG David noted that the S&P 500 (@ES) exceeded its upper target zone (5700-5720) before reversing from what he termed the “Money Box Zone.”
• Key watch levels included prior highs (5695) for potential support or breakdowns.
• Afternoon trading saw increased market movement, characterized by “V-bottoms” and “V-tops,” indicating strong reversals.
• David tracked the three-day average daily range (ADR) for @ES (126.25) and @NQ (516.75), noting that both instruments had exceeded their typical movement ranges for the period.
• The session ended with an MOC (Market on Close) buy imbalance of 700 million, though deemed a minor impact.

Educational Takeaways

• Market Uncertainty Can Be Profitable: While investors dislike uncertainty, day traders can benefit from the inefficiencies it creates.
• Follow the Dominant Force: Staying in alignment with market structure ensures better trade execution.
• Use Key Technical Levels: VWAP, prior highs/lows, and midpoints provide valuable insights for trade entries and exits.
• Recognize Market Phases: Markets shift from trending to grinding phases, requiring traders to adapt strategies accordingly.
• Track ADR for Context: Understanding typical market movement ranges can help set realistic targets and risk parameters.

PTG David’s commentary provided a structured approach to navigating market movements, emphasizing discipline, risk management, and strategic alignment with the prevailing market forces.