PTG David began the session by highlighting valuable educational resources, specifically pointing traders toward the teachings of Yumi Sakura in her book Trading Psychology, emphasizing deeper system understanding. He encouraged participants to regularly check the member resources and links tab, noting that it is frequently updated by Laura and contains high-quality trading insights.
Early in the day, David issued a volatility alert, reminding traders that VIX options expire on the cash open, potentially resulting in sharp moves around 9:30 AM ET. He identified the Line in the Sand (LIS) level at 5415 and outlined the overnight price action, which had already fulfilled the lower target zone between 5375 and 5360. The bear scenario was clearly defined: if price sustained below the LIS, the market was expected to retest the 5375–5360 zone.
As the session unfolded, the market dynamics played out within the expected structure. Price action gravitated toward the Cycle Day 1 Target Zone of 5350–5337, which David labeled “Ultra Precise.” He marked 5337 as the statistical average decline level. Key resistance levels were identified at 65, 75, and 85, suggesting that bulls needed to reclaim and hold above these thresholds, while bears aimed to cap momentum below them.
Throughout the morning and midday, David noted that the bulls were making attempts to rally but lacked follow-through. He described the market as “choppy,” sharing multiple images to illustrate the indecisive rhythm of price action. By 11:20 AM, he labeled the area a “Chop Zone,” reinforcing that conditions were not favorable for clean directional trades.
Crude oil (CL) trades were also active. David reported that both target 1 and target 2 on a long CL operation were filled, but eventually, a stop trail was triggered, concluding that trade.
Into the afternoon, attention shifted to a scheduled appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 1:30 PM. David noted key headlines from Powell’s comments, including caution around the current economic outlook and tension between the Fed’s dual mandates. These statements triggered significant downside acceleration, with the S&P 500 dropping 3% and the Nasdaq 100 nearly 2.9%.
By late afternoon, PTG David remarked that the bulls could not gain traction, humorously describing it as “that soap is slippery,” indicating persistent failure to sustain rallies. He identified the Point of Control (POC) at 5280 and noted a statistical average decline low around 5245. Selling pressure remained intense until a $2.2 billion Market-on-Close (MOC) buy imbalance appeared, which helped stabilize the market and trap short sellers near the close.
The session concluded with a light-hearted sign-off from David, noting that longs were ultimately “saved” by the MOC imbalance, suggesting that despite a rough session for bulls, the day ended with a recovery sparked by institutional buying.
Educational Takeaways:
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Be aware of option expiration timing, especially VIX, as it can dramatically impact open volatility.
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Always define a Line in the Sand (LIS) level to frame bullish vs. bearish scenarios.
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Use statistical target zones (e.g., Cycle Day 1 targets, average decline levels) to set realistic expectations for intraday price moves.
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Recognize that market rhythm (e.g., choppiness) is as important as direction—avoid forcing trades during low-conviction periods.
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Stay alert to macroeconomic events (e.g., Fed speeches), as they can override technical setups and reshape the market structure.
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End-of-day imbalances like MOC buy/sell orders can significantly influence closing price action and reverse intraday trends.
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Maintain flexibility and psychological readiness to adapt—David’s commentary consistently reinforces preparation, awareness, and mindset.