Market Context:
The session opened with the fulfillment of overnight downside targets in both the S&P 500 (@ES to 5625) and Nasdaq (@NQ to 19900) as projected in the Daily Trade Strategy Briefing. These early moves aligned with pre-session expectations and set the tone for a Cycle Day 2 (CD2) structure.
Cycle Day 2 typically offers a balanced rhythm with an early test of prior lows followed by potential reversion and consolidation—a textbook CD2 scenario played out in full.
Trade Sequences & Execution:
🟥 A10 Short Sequence
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Initiated early in the session.
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All three defined targets were achieved.
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Final runner was stopped on a trailing basis.
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Described as a “thing of beauty”—highlighting clean structure, follow-through, and risk control.
🟩 PKB Long Setup
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Reclaim of the 5612 level triggered long bias.
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Entry was posted at 5616.
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The trade leaned on both structural support and Cycle Day expectations for grind higher into midday.
Key Technical Levels & Observations:
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Support Zones: 5590 (50% retracement), 5622 (38%), and prior Cycle Day 1 low.
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Midpoint Level: 5640 identified as the 24-hour midpoint.
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Open Range Levels: Key for intraday bias: bulls needed to hold above 5629.50.
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VWAP Conditions: Market remained pinned around VWAP for much of the afternoon session, signaling low edge and diminishing volatility—prompting SOH (Sit On Hands) mode.
Macro & Market Flow:
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Caution prevailed throughout the session ahead of the mid-week FOMC meeting.
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A $2B MOC Buy Imbalance surfaced near the close but failed to generate significant follow-through—suggesting either misaligned components or lack of broader conviction.
Cycle Day 2 Structure:
PTGDavid highlighted the day’s alignment with the classic Cycle Day 2 profile, characterized by:
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Early weakness
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Reclaim of support (5612)
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Midday consolidation
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Close near VWAP
Multiple graphics were shared throughout the session to visually reinforce the unfolding CD2 template.
📘 Educational Takeaway:
“Cycle Awareness Enhances Contextual Edge”
Today’s session serves as a strong case study in aligning trade setups with expected intraday cycle behavior. The clarity of a Cycle Day 2 roadmap allowed traders to:
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Anticipate potential reversion zones
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Stay patient during low-vig chop
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Maintain a structured bias in the absence of directional momentum
By anchoring trades to the rhythm of the day type and understanding where opportunity compresses or expands, traders improve timing, reduce overtrading, and maintain alignment with market intent.