Market Overview: Pre-CPI Positioning
The session opened with a narrow overnight range inside the prior day’s session, signaling market indecision ahead of the 8:30 AM ET CPI release. This compression was typical of a Cycle Day 1 setup, with traders awaiting a volatility catalyst. PTGDavid marked the key structural pivot zone at 5810–5815, providing an early reference for potential directional bias post-CPI.
CPI Print Reaction – Bullish Ignition
At 8:30 AM, CPI data hit the wires:
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Core CPI YoY: 2.8% (inline)
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CPI YoY: 2.3% (vs. 2.4% forecast)
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CPI MoM: 0.2% (vs. 0.3% forecast)
The slight downside surprise triggered a bullish spike in equity futures, as traders increased rate-cut expectations, pricing in a more dovish Fed stance. Short-term interest rate futures rose, adding fuel to the bullish fire.
“Price spike higher on CPI print”
“US short-term interest-rate futures rise…traders add to Fed rate cut bets”
Initial Trade Strategy Execution
PTGDavid outlined a bull scenario contingent on price sustaining a bid above 5850, targeting 5875–5895:
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5875 quickly fulfilled
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Price continued its grind higher
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Confirmation of bullish sentiment came as key resistance zones were converted to support
For NQ:
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Above 20870, target range 21000–21080 was met
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Call Wall levels and Money Box targets played out cleanly
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Multiple references to structural levels (e.g., D-Levels, R1, Call Wall)
“@NQ…Initial upper target zone nailed!”
“Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 20870…targets 21000–21080 zone”
A4 & OPR Strategies in Action
Throughout the morning session, the A4 strategy (ATR4 deviation) and Open Range Play (OPR) were executed:
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A4 Short PKB flagged early
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A4 Long target 1 and 2 hit, with runner managed via trailing stop
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OPR Long target 1 and 2 also hit
Visuals were shared to validate execution points, including:
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Counter-trend warning (“WTFAIS?”)
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ATR4 fulfillment
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“Cognitive Dissonance” image highlighting errors in shorting a strong uptrend
Midday Consolidation & Equilibrium Phase
Post-target fulfillment, David noted a pullback toward equilibrium:
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Price began consolidating around the Point of Control (POC 5905)
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Bulls maintained control as long as price remained above the 5900-handle
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Clear messaging: “Still no signals for shorting”
David used images and concepts like the OODA Loop Matrix and Bias Grid to drive home the importance of staying aligned with structure and flow.
Afternoon Action – The Grind Continues
In the afternoon, price action transitioned into “the chop”, with less directional conviction:
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Buyers remained persistent; dips were aggressively bid
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David reiterated: “In an uptrend, pivots and support are more important than whether a new high is made.”
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Consolidation above structural supports maintained the bullish structure
Closing Rotation – Power Hour
As the closing hour approached:
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PTGDavid noted a power hour surge
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Targets like NQ Money Box Edge (21232.50) were achieved
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Final remarks included “Well Played Bulls” as the session closed near VWAP
🔍 Educational Takeaway: Structure Over Bias
PTGDavid consistently demonstrated a disciplined, structured approach:
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Let the Market Tell the Story – Avoiding predictive bias and instead reacting to clearly defined levels (pivot zones, D-levels, Call Walls).
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Respect the Trend – The reminder to not fight a bullish grind, even when new highs aren’t being made.
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Framework First, Emotion Second – Traders were reminded not to short a strong uptrend without clear reversal signals (“Cognitive Dissonance” image served as a humorous but real warning).
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Tools & Tactics – Strategies like A4 (ATR deviation-based setups), OPR (Open Range plays), and Money Box levels provided tactical edge.
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Post-News Adaptability – Quick shifts in directional bias based on CPI reaction showed how macro catalysts influence micro setups.
✅ Final Thought:
“Price doesn’t need to make a new high for the trend to be valid. The real signal is in how structure and support hold.”
This recap is a reminder that trading is not prediction; it is preparation and execution. PTGDavid’s session underscored that clear planning, disciplined execution, and staying out of emotional trades can make all the difference.