S&P 500 (ES)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Shallow pullback during overnight session established a new cycle low at 5923.
RTH opening held firm a bid as buyers remained dominant throughout the session fulfilling multiple upside objectives.
OPEX buying was the primary driver throughout the session. Market on Close (MOC) buy imbalance was easily absorbed as end-of-day position squaring had price retreat into the closing bell.
***Key Note: Moody’s downgraded US Debt to AA+ which smashed price down to 5940 opening range midpoint in extended after hours trading. ***Great timing…After the RTH Friday Close!
Range for this session was 54 handles on 1.072M contracts exchanged.
For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 5.16.25
FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Transition into Cycle Day 2: Typically for CD2 we would be anticipating MATD trading range rhythms to consolidate prior five-day rally.
As noted above, Moody’s downgraded US Debt to Aa1, which caused a sharp sell-down during extended hour trading.
Market’s reaction to this downgrade should offer traders a “tell” into its significance. S&P and Fitch ratings on US Debt are both @ Aa1, so Moody’s downgrade should not have a significant impact, since this is simply an adjustment to align with the other rating agencies.
One read-through on the downgrade is to send a message to the “hacks” in House of Rep. to get the “BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL” passed.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 5950+-, initially targets 5965 – 5970 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 5950+-, initially targets 5925 – 5920 zone.
PVA High Edge = 5968 PVA Low Edge = 5933 Prior POC = 5938
ESM
Nasdaq (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: Price established a new cycle low at 21320.25 during the morning session as OPEX was the main driver of this session rhythms. Buyers remained dominant throughout the session fulfilling multiple upside objectives. Range for this session was 191 handles on 406k contracts exchanged.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Transition into Cycle Day 2: Typically for CD2 we would be anticipating MATD trading range rhythms to balance the recent two-day rally.
Wild-Card will be how the market responds to Moody’s US Debt Rating Downgrade.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 21415+-, initially targets 21470 – 21510 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 21415+-, initially targets 21325 – 21295 zone.
PVA High Edge = 21472 PVA Low Edge = 21388 Prior POC = 21433
NQM
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.
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