Trade Strategy 9.5.25

Posted on by September 5, 2025

S&P 500 (ES)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: This cycle day saw a  continuation rally which fulfilled all 3 Day Cycle Range Targets.

Persistent buying throughout the session kept the cycle rally intact, with aggressive 0DTE Call Buying “supercharged” the upside potential.

Capping it off was a $3Billion Market on Close (MOC) Buy Imbalance. That tallies over $13 Billion inflows just on MOC since Tuesday.

If you want to know where the market is headed, then Follow the Mutual Fund Money Flows.

Range was 62 handles on 1.115M contracts exchanged.

For a more detailed recap of the trading session, click on this link: Trading Room RECAP 9.4.25

FREE TRIAL link to PTG/Taylor Three Day Cycle

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

Transition into Cycle Day 3: Cycle Objectives have been fulfilled (6496.25) and exceeded. Markets closed on their highs, so as such we will mark this session as a “wild-card.”

The BIG Event for today is the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls (Jobs Report). Below is a breakdown of what analysts are expecting.

Here’s what the latest forecasts are indicating for the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, due Friday, September 5, 2025 (for August data):

Forecast Summary

  • Reuters (Take Five): Expects approximately 78,000 job additions.Reuters

  • Reuters (Asia markets coverage): Projected around 75,000 with a slight rise in unemployment to 4.3%.Reuters

  • MarketPulse / OANDA: Consensus at 75,000 jobs, unemployment expected to tick up to 4.3%, and wage growth to moderate.MarketPulse

  • Investing.com (via economic calendar): Forecast of 75K jobs (prior: 73K), unemployment at 4.3%, and MoM average hourly earnings at 0.3%.Investing.com

  • Plus500 (via market commentary): Much stronger outlook—jobs expected to rebound to around 120,000, unemployment improving to 4.1%, with hourly earnings steady at 0.3%.Plus500

  • FinancialJuice.com: Slightly higher expectation—85,000 job gains.features.financialjuice.com

  • TradingEconomics: Echoes the 75,000 forecast, consistent with other consensus figures.Trading Economics

  • The majority of forecasts cluster around the 75K–85K range, reflecting a market expectation of ongoing softness following July’s low 73K print.

  • Plus500’s projection of 120K stands out as notably more optimistic and would signal a stronger rehiring trend if realized.

  • Most consensus models show a slight rise in unemployment, typically to 4.3%, and steady modest wage growth around 0.3% MoM.

Final Take

The moderate consensus expects modest job growth—around 75K–85K—with rising unemployment and steady wage growth, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at their September meeting.

Notable: Target Rate Probabilities for Sept. 17th Rate Cut stands at 99.4%  Fed Watch Tool

However, if employment rebounds more strongly—on the order of 120K—that could signal more resilience in the labor market, possibly complicating the Fed’s path to easing.

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6510+-, initially targets 6525 – 6530 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6510+-, initially targets 6495 – 6490 zone.

PVA High Edge = 6494    PVA Low Edge = 6456         Prior POC = 6470

   ESU

Nasdaq (NQ)

Prior Session was Cycle Day 2: This cycle day saw a  continuation rally which fulfilled all 3 Day Cycle Range Targets. Range was 298 handles on 475k contracts exchanged. 

 

…Transition from Cycle Day 2 to Cycle Day 3

Transition into Cycle Day 3: Cycle Objectives have been fulfilled (23621.50) and exceeded. Markets closed on their highs, so as such we will mark this session as a “wild-card.”

Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.

PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.

As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading. 

Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 23665+-, initially targets 23750 – 23790 zone. 

Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 23665+-, initially targets 23620 –  23575 zone.

PVA High Edge = 23575     PVA Low Edge = 23430         Prior POC = 23530

NQU 

Economic Calendar

Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.

Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined  ALWAYS USE STOPS!

Good Trading…David

“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR

*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS

IMPORTANT NOTICE! No representation is being made that the use of this strategy or any system or trading methodology will generate profits. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is substantial risk of loss associated with trading securities and options on equities. Only risk capital should be used to trade. Trading securities is not suitable for everyone.

Disclaimer: Futures, Options, and Currency trading all have large potential rewards, but they also have large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose.

This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, options, or currencies. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 –HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN

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