Cycle Day 1: Mutual Fun Monday & the Great Market Mood Swing

Welcome back, my friends… to the show that absolutely never ends. And on this fine first-of-the-month Monday, the machines woke up early, the bulls stretched their hamstrings, and the fresh capital inflows strutted in like they owned the place.

Mutual Fun Monday worked its typical magic: not a guarantee of green, but an undeniable tailwind of institutional “first-of-the-month” cash sloshing around the system. Think of it as the market’s version of a paycheck hitting the bank — suddenly everyone wants to buy something.

Morning Session — CD1 Does CD1 Things

Right on cue, Cycle Day 1 delivered the expected decline, tagging the 6808.28 Violation Target with surgical precision. Buyers responded like they’d been waiting all weekend to prove a point.

Momentum stayed choppy, distribution stayed ugly, and Manny reminded us (again) why Mondays are for caution and caffeine. Big wicks, messy rotations, and overnight inventory that refused to behave — all classic CD1 signatures.

Levels That Mattered

• 6825 – C&C Key Level, held its role like a seasoned Broadway performer.

• 6809–6813 – Setup #3 buy zone, offering the day’s sweetest long response.

• 6837–6839 – Natural speed bump on the path upward.

• VWAP – The market’s emotional support blanket; price kept coming back for reassurance.

Midday – Technical Nap Time

ES danced back to VWAP, tech stayed bid, and profile structure was declared “terrible” by popular vote.
David stepped out — the market immediately behaved.
Coincidence? You decide.

Afternoon – The MOC Plot Twist

Just when the day looked destined to coast quietly into the close…
Boom. MOC Imbalance Plot Twist.

The supposedly “fresh capital” Monday morphed into:

• $920M Sell

• Then $1.1B Sell

• Then $1.7B Sell

• Then a massive $2.8B Sell Imbalance

That’s not “flow.”
That’s “someone yanked the drain plug.”

Longs trapped. VWAP magnetized. CD1 textbook completed.

Final Act

The market closed out the first scene of December with classic CD1 choreography — early dip, midday balance, late sell pressure, confused traders, lots of “what the heck was that,” and one seriously exhausted VWAP.

As David put it:
“First scene of the Final Act for 2025 in the books.”

And so it is.