S&P 500 (ES)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: “Ski Slope Bull” Edition”
Textbook. Surgical. Borderline disrespectful to randomness.
Cycle Day 1 delivered exactly what the playbook promised — controlled downside pressure, escalating into a late-day liquidity flush that left bulls looking for ski patrol… and possibly orthopedic surgeons.
Cycle Metrics – Laser Precision
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CD1 Average Decline Projection: 6798.42 → Tagged & Bagged
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Projected Range Low: 6793.74 → Fulfilled
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Violation Level: 6780 → Reached
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127.2% Weekly Consolidation Extension: 6775 → Final print
For greater detail of how this day unfolded, click on the Trading Room RECAP 12.17.25 link.
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Transition into Cycle Day 2: POTUS… CPI… OPEX — a triple-header that screams volatility with attitude.
We’re staring down a loaded event sequence beginning this evening with a POTUS primetime address (topic TBD… which is never comforting), followed by the CPI inflation print, and capped off with a $5 Trillion Triple Options Expiry on Fryday. Translation: liquidity is nervous, positioning is fragile, and reactions may be exaggerated.
This isn’t a normal Cycle Day 2. This is Cycle Day 2 with accelerants.
🎯 Cycle Day 2 Focus
🟢 Bull Case
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Hold north of 6795 and Reclaim 6815
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Dig in and establish ground control
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Absorb the event-driven volatility
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Force shorts to question not just their positions… but their entire trading philosophy
If bulls can defend 6775 through these catalysts, it sets the table for a sharp squeeze as risk gets repriced post-event.
🔴 Bear Case
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Lose 6775 and 6755 is in the crosshairs
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Watch it fracture under pressure
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Downside momentum accelerates
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Trapped longs turn into forced sellers heading for the exits
Bears have already shown teeth by forcing long liquidation below 6830, the critical level highlighted in the prior briefing. That puts them firmly in control—for now.
⚠️ Tactical Takeaway
This week is stacked with headline risk and positioning risk. Expect:
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Fast moves
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Fake moves
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And sudden “what just happened?” candles
Stay disciplined. Let levels — not emotions — do the talking.
Cycle Day 2 doesn’t reward prediction…
It rewards precision.
Proceed accordingly. 🎯
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 6795+-, initially targets 6815 – 6820 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 6775+-, initially targets 6755 – 6735 zone.
PVA High Edge = 6822 PVA Low Edge = 6778 Prior POC = 6790
ESH
Nasdaq (NQ)
Prior Session was Cycle Day 1: “No Edges, No Brakes”
Picture this cinematic freeze-frame:
A panicked Bull, wildly overconfident just hours earlier, now skiing down a steep, icy mountainside carved unmistakably in the shape of a descending NQ price chart. The slope is relentless — no edges, no grip, just gravity doing what gravity does.
Below him, the terrain is littered with:
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Broken ski poles labeled “BTFD”
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Margin Call warning beacons flashing red
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Snow plumes shaped like liquidation prints
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Shadowy Margin Clerks in dark parkas, calmly stamping “FORCED SALE” as they sweep up abandoned positions
The Bull’s expression?
Wide-eyed realization.
The look of someone who just learned that Cycle Day 1 does not negotiate.
Overhead, storm clouds swirl with faint numbers and ticking clocks — a reminder that time + leverage = slippery math. The sun never comes out. It doesn’t have to. The lesson already landed.
Tagline etched into the snow at the base of the hill:
“Cycle Day 1 doesn’t push you…
It simply removes the brakes.”
…Transition from Cycle Day 1 to Cycle Day 2
Transition into Cycle Day 2: “Regroup at the Tree Line”
Following the prior session’s downhill ski-slope fiasco, the Bulls limp into Cycle Day 2 bruised, humbled, and suddenly very respectful of gravity. Yesterday was about uncontrolled descent. Today is about survival.
Cycle Day 2’s signature rhythm is stabilization after trauma — the market equivalent of catching your breath, tightening your boots, and checking to see which limbs still work. Bulls must find footing and form a base, because further weakness risks reopening the liquidation wound. Margin Clerks are still nearby, clipboards in hand, and they’re not known for mercy.
This is no victory lap.
It’s a damage-control operation.
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Bull Mandate: Regroup, hold structure, establish a defensible base. No heroics. No bravado. Just don’t slide again.
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Failure Risk: Lose stability and the slope reopens — liquidation resumes, confidence fractures, and forced selling snowballs downhill.
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Market Psychology: Fear hasn’t left the building… but panic has paused to see what happens next.
Cycle Day 2 does not promise upside.
It promises a chance — and only if discipline replaces denial.
Bottom Line:
Cycle Day 2 is where narratives reset.
Stability here changes the story.
Failure… rewinds the fall.
Stay sharp. Stay grounded. And remember — gravity is patient.
Following the prior day’s ski slope slide, traumatized Bulls need to regroup and find some stability, which is the signature of a Cycle Day 2 rhythm. They cannot risk further weakness which would threaten further margin liquidation.
Of course, nothing changes for PTG…Simply follow your plan. Take only Triple A setups and manage the $risk. ALWAYS HAVE HARD STOP-LOSSES in-place on the exchange.
PTG’s Primary Directive (PD) is to ALWAYS STAY IN ALIGNMENT with the DOMINANT FORCE.
As such, scenarios to consider for today’s trading.
Bull Scenario: Price sustains a bid above 25000+-, initially targets 25068 – 25118 zone.
Bear Scenario: Price sustains an offer below 24890+-, initially targets 24804 – 24719 zone.
PVA High Edge = 25170 PVA Low Edge = 24891 Prior POC = 24946
NQH
Economic Calendar
Trade Strategy: Our tactical trade strategy will simply remain unaltered…We’ll be flexible to trade both long and short side from Decision Pivot Levels. Continue to focus on Bull/Bear Stackers and Premium/Discounts. As always, remaining in alignment with dominant intra-day force increases probabilities of producing winning trades.
Stay Focused…Non-Biased…Disciplined ALWAYS USE STOPS!
Good Trading…David
“Knowing is not enough, We must APPLY. Willing is not enough, We must DO.” –BR
*****This trade strategy report is disseminated for “education only” and should not be viewed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell futures products.”
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